FREE TO READ: The top-10 reasons why oil prices are below $100 a barrel. 1) China, China and China 2) Demand destruction 3) Lots of oil bypassing/leaving the Strait of Hormuz 4) The original oversupply 5) Huge SPR release / commercial stocks draw 6) Refinery flexibility 7) Trump's jawboning 8) Options market development 9) The fog of war is thinner 10) Soaring Americas oil output bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until early September. He is waiting on incorporating the Iran agreement into his view until it is signed and actions are taken according to it

Brent crude oil is down to ~$88 a barrel, its lowest in nearly 3 months. As flat price decline, backwardation is tumbling, with the 2nd to 3rd month Brent time spread (⤵️📉) down to its lowest since Mar 2.

ZAR cash performance over 10 years - 92.6% in ZAR 71.4% in USD US Cash performance over 10 years: 23.7% in USD (not what most people would have expected)

Just a reminder of what usually happens with new listings of hyped-up companies.... The insiders always know better $JSEOPA Optasia as another exibit. Have a look how much of the company the founder and its backers own after the IPO

the new world order

PGM Basket price looking sick!

"The end game in markets is to make money, not score intellectual points" h/t @AswathDamodaran Absolutely agree. (Although I fall into the trap all the time)

Incredible. There is a source of fuel that nobody can see?

CHART OF THE DAY: On Apr 16, the IEA made a headline-grabbing warning: Europe had "maybe 6 weeks or so of jet fuel left." It's week seven; the planes are still flying. Since those headlines, European wholesale jet fuel prices have fallen ~30% to a ~3-month low.

Joao Fonseca! 3 Aces to beat Novak (my hero). That was awesome

Cyclical Stocks 101: Final highs don’t come at high P/Es. They come when earnings are peaking and P/Es look deceptively “cheap.” Semis—especially MU—are classic: they screen undervalued right before the cycle turns.

I have a lot of sympathy with this analysis. In fCt: A LOT!!

A hard lesson from administering my late mother's estate: read the fine print on life rights before your parents sign one. For those unfamiliar: a life right is a popular retirement-village model in South Africa. You don't buy the property. You pay a large lump sum (often R2m ) for the right to occupy a unit for the rest of your life. The operator retains ownership and the title. When the holder dies, here is what nobody really explains up front. 1. The operator takes a fixed chunk regardless of how long you lived there. Typical contracts deduct around 40 percent of a notional "Listing Consideration" as the operator's effective fee, amortised over five years. If your loved one lives in the unit for two years, three years, or even just under five, that 40 percent disappears anyway. My mother paid R2 million in 2021. Five years later, the estate stands to receive less than half of it back. 2. The estate keeps paying levies after death. Indefinitely. The contract terminates automatically when the holder dies. But you, as the estate, remain liable for the full monthly levy, rates, and consumption charges until the operator finds a new buyer. There is no deadline. No reasonable-time obligation written in. We are six weeks past hand-over and the invoices keep arriving. 3. The estate cannot use, let, or even allow family to enter the unit. The right to occupy was "personal in nature." It died with the holder. The estate cannot put a tenant in, cannot let it on Airbnb, cannot even allow family to stay there without the operator's written consent. Every mitigation lever sits with the operator at their sole discretion. 4. The operator has zero incentive to re-sell quickly. They hold your capital interest-free until a buyer is found. They earn the levy every month you wait. They earn a remarketing fee on re-sale. The longer they take, the better for them. The worse for you. 5. The contract usually contains a CPA exemption-by-design. Most of these schemes acknowledge the Consumer Protection Act on paper, then carve themselves into clauses that allow exactly the kind of one-sided continuation of obligations the CPA was meant to police. Sections 48 and 52 of the CPA, and the Constitutional Court line on fairness in contract (Barkhuizen, Beadica), give real grounds to push back. But you have to know to push. If you or a family member is considering a life right, please: - Read the full agreement including every annexure, not just the marketing brochure. - Model the worst case: holder dies within 3 to 5 years of taking occupation. - Calculate the estate's expected net return, including post-death levy bleed if re-sale takes 6 to 12 months. - Get independent legal advice before signing. Not advice from the village's referred attorneys. - Ask explicitly: what is the operator's contractual obligation to re-sell within a reasonable time? If the answer is "none," walk away. There are genuinely good retirement villages and well-structured life rights out there. But the structural risk to the estate is rarely disclosed up front. If you've been through this and want to compare notes, please reach out.

The comments are scathing. This guy is done

Sakeliga again!!! No fear or favor