📊 95% confidence in my opinions, ±5%.

Joined November 2022
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How many people died every year because the USAID budget wasn’t bigger? This shit is critical. We literally hold the fates of every human being in the world in our hands. And all we could do was commit $44 billion a year to saving poor people across the world? Think of the hundreds of millions of people that have died because we were too selfish to spend $500 billion of our citizens tax dollars on USAID every year. We could have saved everyone, man.
Elon Musk says that no one has died because he slashed humanitarian aid. I went to South Sudan to check if that's true. It's not. Within an hour of starting interviews, I had the names of a 10-year-old boy and an 8-year-old girl who had died because of decisions by wealthy men in Washington. The visit that moved me the most was to a remote area that used to have no health care, where women routinely died in childbirth. Then a US-funded maternity clinic opened through @UNFPA in December, and not one woman has died since. I showed up, and people mistakenly thought I was responsible for the clinic. One new mom wanted to name her baby for me, and the village elders thanked me and hailed America's generosity. What they didn't know was that Trump/Musk had cut all funding for UNFPA and that as a result the maternity clinic will close this month, and women will once again be bleeding to death in the dust. Here's a giftlink to my report from ground level about what the shutdown of USAID means: nytimes.com/interactive/2025…
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In case you thought this was just another flag. Happy Flag Day 🇺🇸
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It’s so amazing how literally every single left wing instinct and policy is just universally wrong and bad
Throwing more money at public schools, even doubling teacher salaries, has virtually no effect on student outcomes.
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If the socialists had their way, Elon would have had his paypal profits taken and redistributed for the greater good. The world would never have seen Tesla, nor SpaceX. And the world wouldn't know it, because they were uncreated, and thus unseen. Imagine the companies that don't exist, because Washington destroyed them before they were born.
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Another banger. Beautiful.
USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving. Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free. I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these." "They just come with the table, man." They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner. This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat. I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared. "Did we…?" "Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless." Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined. My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude." Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man. I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy. Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived. I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most. Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.
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Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.
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> you’ll never start a rocket company > you’ll never build your own engines > you’ll never be able to use off-the-shelf parts > you’ll never survive three launch failures > you’ll never reach orbit > you’ll never win NASA’s trust > you’ll never launch cargo to the ISS > you’ll never compete with Boeing > you’ll never compete with Lockheed > you’ll never make rockets reusable > you’ll never land a rocket vertically > you’ll never land one on a drone ship > you’ll never reuse a booster > you’ll never fly the same booster 10 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 20 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 30 times > you’ll never recover and reuse the fairing > you’ll never lower launch costs > you’ll never launch every month > you’ll never launch every week > you’ll never launch multiple times a week > you’ll never carry astronauts > you’ll never replace Roscosmos > you’ll never fly civilians to orbit > you’ll never manufacture satellites at scale > you’ll never build the biggest constellation ever > you’ll never make satellite internet work > you’ll never make satellite internet fast > you’ll never make satellite internet affordable > you’ll never serve rural customers > you’ll never serve aircraft and ships > you’ll never build a methane rocket engine > you’ll never make full-flow staged combustion work > you’ll never build the most powerful rocket ever > you’ll never build a rocket bigger than Saturn V > you’ll never build it out of stainless steel > you’ll never launch Starship > you’ll never separate Super Heavy and Starship > you’ll never relight Raptor in space > you’ll never bring Super Heavy back > you’ll never catch a booster with Mechazilla tower arms > you’ll never launch 85% of mass to orbit worldwide > you’ll never change the economics of space > you’ll never force the entire industry to copy you > you’ll never win > you’ll never IPO   Congratulations to @elonmusk and the SpaceX team. You did what countless people said was impossible, and you did it time and time again.   Today is your day. You deserve this. May it be a glorious one.
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If you can’t smoke a pack of cigarettes while getting drunk with friends until 2 am, wake up the next day run a few miles to reset, then your “biological age” isn’t 19, as any college aged man who isn’t totally obese can do that easily.
Jet lag increased my biological age by ~13 years. > as measured by grip strength > pre-travel: 141 lbs, grip age 48, ~98th percentile > post-travel: 125 lbs, grip age 61, ~98th percentile Traveled across 7 time zones, Los Angeles to Australia. Grip strength predicts mortality better than almost anything you can measure at home. A published study of a comparable eastbound flight found the same pattern, about a 7% morning drop.
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"Then they sang. About peanuts. About not caring if they ever came back." Banger.
Top of the seventh, and the entire stadium rose at once. Forty thousand people stood as a single body. No command given. No signal I could see. I had been watching a game. Now I was watching a nation stand up for something, and I did not yet know what. I stood faster than all of them. Whatever was coming, I would not be the last man on his feet. Then they sang. About peanuts. About not caring if they ever came back. A hymn of total devotion, sung by a people who had clearly decided this ground was worth defending. I did not know the words. I sang the shape of them. Loudly. (I am told I was a full beat behind for the entire song. I was not behind. I was holding the rear.) The song ended. Everyone sat. I did not. A man does not stand for a thing and then sit back down forty seconds later as though it never mattered. I had risen. The matter was not settled. So I held my post, scanning the field, guarding a lead that was — I will be honest — not even ours. "Down in front!" a man called. "I am watching," I said, "for all of us." "Buddy, you're blocking the whole row." He was right. I was failing the very people I had stood to protect. There is no honor in shielding a man from the thing he came to see. I sat. It was the hardest retreat of my life. The cheapest seat in the house still buys you the right to stand when your heart says stand. The trick is knowing when your heart is just showing off. They won, by the way. I like to think the standing helped. So tell me, America — forty thousand strangers stood up together for a song about snacks, and not one of them was embarrassed. I have never felt more at home anywhere. What is that? What did I just feel?
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“That’s how they vote in California.” Like it’s just their culture or something. Nothing they can do to change it.
he is the best.
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I was wondering why are they making a big deal about a job that will be finished in under a month then it hit me, confession through projection. If the CA dems ran this project it would take months or years. They fully expected a empty pool all summer at the peak of DC tourism. The idea it would be done on time never even entered their minds.
Bang up job Donald!
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“A man does not ask the mountain to be shorter.”
USA. Summer. It is 95 degrees outside, and I am shivering inside a sandwich shop. I have discovered how Americans forge strong souls. Outside, the sun is trying to kill everyone. Inside this small restaurant, it is winter. My breath does not fog, but it is thinking about it. A man near me is eating a cold sandwich while wearing a jacket. In summer. Indoors. In Japan we would simply turn it down. Americans do not turn it down. And now I understand them better than they understand themselves. This cold is not an accident. This cold is a gift. The owner has built, inside his shop, a second season. He invites you in from the brutal heat and hands you the one thing the sun has denied you all day: a reason to be cold. To endure it is to be tempered. You walk in soft and sweating. You walk out sharp and clear, a slightly stronger person than you were. So I did not complain. I removed my outer layer and offered it to the woman at the next table, who was hugging herself. She said, "Oh, no, I'm fine, thank you." She was not fine. Her lips were blue. But she, too, understood the training. She would not break first. I respected her deeply. The owner asked if everything was okay. "It is perfect," I said, through my teeth, which were chattering. "Thank you for the winter." He said, "...I can turn the AC down if you want?" I told him no. A man does not ask the mountain to be shorter. I stayed two hours. I ordered a hot coffee to survive. Then a second one, to hold. By the end I could no longer feel my hands, but my spirit had never been clearer. So now, on the hottest days, I seek out the coldest rooms. I sit. I shiver. I sharpen. And when I finally step back out into the summer heat, and it wraps around me like a warm bath, I feel it. Reborn. A man who has survived the winter, in August, indoors, for the price of a sandwich.
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Let me ruin your June for a second. Every year when National Gun Violence Awareness Month rolls around, the same people who have not read a single page of John Lott's 13,312-regression peer-reviewed study start posting pictures of children and demanding you feel responsible for deaths you did not cause and had nothing to do with. So. Let us talk about children. Since they brought it up. In 2006, the CDC recorded 642 accidental firearm deaths in the entire United States. For children under the age of ten — the number was 31. Thirteen under age five. Eighteen between five and nine. Tragic? Absolutely. Every single one. But here is the number that will not appear on a single "Orange Friday" awareness post: 80. Eighty children under the age of five drown in bathtubs every year. Every. Single. Year. ALMOST THREE TIMES as many children drown in bathtubs annually as die from ALL firearm accidents combined — including adults. And forty more drown in five-gallon water buckets. The kind you buy at Home Depot for $4.99. I have given this information at talks and watched jaws drop, because people genuinely believe the number is in the thousands. They have been so thoroughly marinated in "gun violence awareness" content that their perception of actual risk is completely detached from reality. That is not an accident. That is the point of the campaign. Where is Bathtub Awareness Month? Where is the congressional hearing on five-gallon bucket control? Where is the hashtag? Where are the orange ribbons for the children who drowned while their parents were in the next room? There are none. Because the campaign was never about children. It was never about safety. If it were about safety, they would be equally outraged about cars — which killed 1,305 children that same year. Or fire. Or drowning. But they are not. The selective fury lands exclusively on firearms. And if you are a scientist, which I happen to be, you do not get to cherry-pick your data based on which conclusion you prefer. Quinn's Law Number Six: facts are the enemy of liberalism. Now let us talk about what the actual data says about guns and safety, because John Lott ran 13,000-plus statistical regressions across every county in America and the results are not ambiguous. Fifty-six percent of convicted felons surveyed in a ten-state study said they would NOT attack a target they believed was armed. Fifty-six percent. The deterrence is real, it is documented, and it functions whether or not a shot is ever fired. The firearm you carry protects your neighbor whether your neighbor knows it or not. When states passed right-to-carry laws, multiple-victim public shootings — what the media insists on calling "mass shootings" to maximize terror — dropped by 67 percent. Deaths in those events dropped by 75 percent. Injuries by 81 percent. States that adopted these laws virtually ELIMINATED mass public shootings within four to five years. The remaining events? They happened almost exclusively in the specific locations where guns remained banned. The gun-free zones. The places we hang the sign that only the law-abiding ever read. There were between 760,000 and 3.6 million defensive gun uses in the United States last year alone, depending on which of fifteen national polls you consult. A JAMA Network Open study from March 2025 estimated 489,000 DGUs in which a firearm was actually discharged. The Department of Justice's own National Crime Victimization Survey puts the conservative floor at 65,000 defensive uses per year against assaults, robberies, and home invasions. No dead body. No coverage. No awareness month. Here is one more number for you: 74. Seventy-four percent of convicted felons in a National Institute of Justice survey said they actively avoided homes they believed were occupied by armed residents. Criminals respond to incentives. That is not ideology — that is basic deterrence theory, and it is confirmed by the people who actually commit the crimes. I also want you to think carefully about something the Supreme Court already settled. DeShaney v. Winnebago County (1989). Town of Castle Rock v. Gonzales (2005). Two separate rulings establishing that the government has NO legal obligation to protect you as an individual. None. You are your own first responder. That is not my opinion — that is settled constitutional law from the highest court in this country. So the political class that just told you the government is not required to protect you... is also the one demanding you surrender the tool you use to protect yourself. I want fewer people dead. That is why I know the data. That is why I read the book. That is why I am furious every June when emotion and fundraising replace science and evidence in a "debate" that has actual life-or-death consequences for real people. You want to honor the children? Honor ALL of them. The ones who drowned. The ones who died in car crashes. And the ones who will never be born because a woman alone in her house at 2 a.m. had no way to stop what was coming through her door. But what do I know — I am only a published textbook author, a science teacher, a father of four, and a combat medic who spent his career reducing human suffering and who actually read the peer-reviewed data before forming an opinion. IF you agree: LIKE this post so the algorithm shows it to people who need to read it. SHARE this. COMMENT below — did you know the bathtub number? Or did the narrative keep that from you? Tell me. And if you want MORE of this -- the data, the history, the science, the stories -- JOIN Bski's Classroom community on X or YouTube. #MAGA #Veterans #Trump @JoJoFromJerz @GuntherEagleman @catturd2
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How far we’ve come.
Six years ago today.
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To everyone trying to dunk on Nigel Farage for things he has and hasn’t said in the past: Why don’t you just taking the fucking W and stop trying to score worthless social media points with your “gotcha” takes? A public message like this would have been unthinkable just a few short years ago. Thank the man and go do something constructive with it.
This is serious. This is urgent. We need a change in culture. White lives matter too.
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This take is VERY American. And that’s why our country has a history of only getting serious about threats after it’s been surprise attacked with a high casualty count. In the post nuclear age, we as the world’s super power are in a Catch 22 of sorts. >Ignore threats to make citizens happy. Opening ourselves up to a mass casualty event. >Proactively engage threats and make citizens angry. Americans HATE war. We are at our very best when we are drug into them by providence. Anything beyond that looks like a war of choice. And coming off the heels of two REALLY shitty ones in Iraq and Afghanistan, I get it. But you guys don’t know how bad Iran really is. Most people don’t. I mean what I say when I say that it was only a matter of time before a “sum of all fears moment” happened in the U.S. But you, me, and every other American are never gonna know that. Because it was prevented. All you get now is the higher gas prices and frustration that we’re still entangled there. I won’t lie, it’s messy. But what’s messier? This or a ground burst low yield nuclear detonation in a mega city? Up to you, but I know what my answer is.
Pretty much all of the prominent voices who supported the Iran War assured us it would be over by now. None of them will admit they were wrong. Even less will they admit that their initial assurances were based on nothing but their own wishcasting. This whole shitshow has been an enormous waste of time and resources and our country has not benefited from it at all. Its advocates have moved the goal posts repeatedly and have even to this day refused to clearly articulate what constitutes a victory and how we’ll know that it’s been achieved.
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Don’t you get it, Balaji? We don’t want your plan. We don’t want you. Baden-Baden in 1905 was where Europe’s old elite went to pretend the world was stable. Singapore today is where the new global elite goes because the world is not. Both are luxury refuges. Both attract money, power, diplomats, gamblers, traders, and discreet conversations. Baden-Baden was a drawing room of empire. Singapore is a control room of globalization. John A. Konrad I was German aristocracy from Baden-Baden. He won the lottery of birth, gifted entry into one of the most elite and beautiful places on earth. Then he read another aristocrat, Teddy Roosevelt, and decided he wanted adventure. He wanted to serve a cause greater than himself and greater than the German royal family. So he boarded a tramp steamer with his young son, JAK II, and traded a palace for a tenement on the Lower East Side. JAK II became CFO of an ocean salvage company operating out of the Brooklyn Navy Yard, the hottest industry of its day. The Depression hit. Salvage was booming. Did he flee the ravaged city? No. He opened a deli to feed his neighbors with his own wealth, offering credit to starving families. JAK III earned an executive track job at Sperry. World War II broke out. He was exempt. He quit anyway, climbed into a B-24, and navigated bombing runs over Baden-Baden. He bombed his own cousins. Did he return to Sperry? No. He joined @FDNY. JAK IV dropped out of medical school to enlist as a medic in Vietnam, where he treated Vietnamese refugees like @HungCao_VA. He came home, attended an Ivy League school just like you did, and then threw away his wealth to save the Bronx from fire. III and IV are both buried in Arlington. JAK V attended the most elite public high school in the Northeast. The Washington Post wrote a book about his class. He was a computer nerd. He could have gone to Stanford like you. He chose the Naval Academy instead. Then he doubled down on something harder: the US Merchant Marine. He went to your ancestral home, Balaji. India. He met a man named Ambani whose business was struggling. He worked there for two years on a beat-to-shit oil rig in conditions you cannot imagine, all to give your people energy. I have traveled the world, Balaji, and India is the one place I never want to return to. Fantastic people, living in filth and corruption. I hated every minute I spent there. Here is the thing. I did not dream as a kid of helping India. I dreamed of riding a ship into war. That is the Roosevelt corollary to the American dream. In 2003, war broke out. My chance to be buried next to my father in Arlington. Except it was not me navigating through minefields and getting decorated for bravery. It was my wife. I stayed in southeast India. I stayed through sickness and pain. I stayed through monsoon and the Asian tsunami that ran under my ships and washed my Indian crew’s families to death. It was the most painful experience of my life. The deeper pain was giving up my chance to serve my nation in order to serve yours. We did find the largest natural gas field in the world. Ambani is now the richest man in India. Your country is still a shithole. You are right about one thing. China is clean and modern. What they have built is impressive. Singapore too. I cherished the time I lived in South Korea. We are more alike than you know. My father is a Cornell medical school graduate from Long Island. My mother is a nurse practitioner. Your parents are Long Island physicians. We were born three years apart. We both love computers. We both had admission to Stanford. We both left New York for Silicon Valley. We both raised millions. We both got into crypto early. We both made millions. There are three big differences. /1
May 26
Replying to @romanhelmetguy
Your post has several embedded points that I disagree with. Let's go. THE US MILITARY IS MADE IN CHINA "If China and the USA go to war..." (1) China and the US aren't going to war, because the US military is literally made in China. See the $400M Govini study commissioned by the Pentagon itself[a], which shows that famous American armaments like the JDAM and Tomahawk are ultimately dependent upon Chinese suppliers. (2) Unfortunately, that means China can simply turn off the Republican military. You can't fight your factory. The whole defense industrial buildup to "fight China" is essentially a LARP. I like a lot of the guys involved with that, and I appreciate their wishful thinking, and it may bear results on a multi-decadal time scale...but there's no way that 77M MAGA Republicans are competing with 1.4B Chinese in manufacturing anytime soon. China's flex on rare earths was just the beginning of their enormous leverage over the US economy and military. (3) However, most of the world didn't fully understand this. They thought the US military was still the military of 1991, or 2003. That's why the war in Iran should never have been fought; the Republicans should have instead spent their political capital quietly rebuilding, while everyone thought they were still strong. Instead, they just pursued a foolhardy campaign which ended in public defeat. US military bases across the Middle East got blown up by Iranian missiles, with soldiers reduced to working remote, and ships pulled back far from the theater. This sucks, but now even neocons like Kagan are acknowledging total defeat [b,c]. (4) So: after the defeat in Iran, it's unlikely there is war with China (which is >100X Iran). However, similar to how the post-Soviet Russia got into fights with its neighbors, like the Chechens and Ukrainians, the post-imperial America will probably get much more involved in Latin America. But that's a whole separate topic. CITY STATES VS NETWORK STATES "...what you’re actually talking about is just starting some small city states around the world..." (1) First, hopefully you'll agree that new cities are pretty cool in their own right, and are how America was born in the first place. The Massachusetts Bay Colony built the City on a Hill, remember? (2) Second, I'm expressly not only talking about centralized city states, which are entirely dependent on their geographic host, but also distributed network states. There's a concrete visual here[d], but to first order you can think of it as "just" a physical social network, albeit with financial and technological resources on par with a legacy state. Similar to how some countries are islands separated by oceans, you can imagine new countries that are groups of islands (or enclaves) separated by Internet. (3) The key precedent here is decentralized crypto, which is much bigger than the the vast majority of country-scale economies in the world. Were all the crypto datacenters wiped off the map, and all cryptocurrency holders killed the second a "superpower" decided crypto was inconvenient? No, crypto actually flipped both superpowers. It was a fight with words and code, not guns, but crypto is now legal in much of the world, including not just the US and EU, but even Hong Kong in China. (4) Fourth, your beliefs were likely also considered "subversive" by far leftists for many years. But technologists defended your right to free speech, with code. And ultimately what matters is whether a belief is true, and whether it produces human flourishing. NATION OF EMIGRANTS "...didn’t you flee to Singapore?" (1) This sentence makes no sense. It's like saying "didn't you flee to Stanford" or "didn't you flee to Google". Lest you didn't know, Singapore is by some measures now the richest country in the world[e,f]. You apply to move there, and it has borders, and rejects many applicants. You cannot simply "flee" there. (2) Now, with that said, your sentence does make sense in a different context, which is that millions of Republicans and technologists HAVE fled...because they fled Democrat-controlled states like California for places like Texas and Florida, to escape the violence and drug addicts. (3) I am sympathetic, of course. But there is a difference between simply fleeing Blue America for the next state over, as opposed to consciously moving and then coming up with a plan. The obvious plan is to just vote within your existing city or country, and of course you can do that, but perhaps one can do something more. (4) My plan is simple: use the Internet to peacefully build new opt-in communities, build new cities, and connect them together. In the fullness of time, I do think that we can use the Internet to build many alternatives to places like San Francisco and Los Angeles, drain them of their best people, and demonstrate that a new birth of freedom is possible. That will either reform places like SF and LA, or it will end them, but either way the people finally get a true democratic choice of governments, with 1000 cities to chose from. (5) In other words: we want 1000 startup societies and network states around the world, each for a different subculture, some for Americans, and some for others. That's also part of why I moved here, to learn from Lee Kuan Yew's work. (6) Again, this is how America itself was started. The Pilgrims and Puritans "fled" to New England and started a new city on the hill, which eventually outclassed most of the cities in the old world. A group of Irish Americans "fled" from Ireland to America to join them. Really, they didn't simply flee, they moved, and they built something better. (7) Finally: yes, of course, it did take centuries to scale Boston to a population of 673,000. But the Internet got to billions of users in just a few decades. With new tech, we might be able to scale new cities much faster than they did before. Elon's Starbase is already well on its way, by the way. And that's what I mean by printing out the Internet. [a]: govini.com/insights/numbers-… [b]: theatlantic.com/internationa… [c]: theatlantic.com/internationa… [d]: thenetworkstate.com/the-netw… [e]: straitstimes.com/singapore/s… [f]: asiaone.com/money/singapore-…
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This may be one of the greatest X things I've ever witnessed. No joke.
This is probably a long shot, but if anybody happens to be in DC this weekend and plans on visiting Arlington, I would love to see a fresh photo of my husband’s grave in Section 60. SSG Alan W. Shaw Section 60, Grave 8451 B Co 1/12 Cav, 1st Cavalry Division November 10, 1975 - February 9, 2007 There’s just something about knowing people still stop by, still say his name, still remember. 🇺🇸⭐🇺🇸
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Finding a job that is satisfying and comes with great pay, benefits, and flexibility is absolutely attainable and in many cases can be a better fit than business ownership. It's also a legitimate (though often longer) path to wealth, and can help to build up investment funds to make those big bets that can pay off down the road. Thriving in the corporate world is just a skill issue.
The lie that all jobs are a jail sentence is ruining an entire generation. A 400k a year job, for a non executive, is impossible to get. More than the average doctor makes. More than 99% of small business owners. You gotta hold on to that job for dear life. 1% salary.
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More stressful than a firefight. I like staring at the holes in the wall until they overlap and I enter the 4th dimension. I failed, btw. The tinnitus overpowered the “beeps” in my left ear. Need to go back later this week.
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The still-in-service Browning M2 is older than the People’s Republic of China
China literally has trees in Xi Jinping’s garden that are older than the United States! 🤣
Community note
Important context: the United States also has trees older than the United States en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o…
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