Price discovery on SpaceX $SPCX will be interesting, as will impact on broader market. Hyperliquid still forecasting a $175 price vs $135 IPO; not sure how much to read into that, though it has nearly $300 million in open interest. (like this tweet and it shows a rocket.)
I agree that the $GRAL stock action played a big part in the $PCSC selloff; that said, $GH is an equally relevant comp (maybe even more so) and that one has raced to new highs in the meantime.
1/ $PCSC@freenome - Sometimes the market gives you a glimpse into how smart investors view a company/stock and because of some macro, non-idiosyncratic shock, the stock fades and gives you a bite at their apple.
Introducing $PCSC which traded to $14 before fading post Feb
$PCSC Freenome; a reminder, Roche has been big supporter of Freenome for years. They signed a new agreement as recently as November, which included a fresh $75 million financing that auto-converts at $12 per share upon Freenome going public. Actually $12.
freenome.com/newsroom/freeno…
I'm a big believer in looking at terms of a PIPE on a SPAC deal. Some use a flashy headline number, ie a conversion price, but under the surface there's a lot more - warrants, reset provisions, big coupon payments, ability to redeem at par if stock doesn't work, etc.
This doesn't mean a SPAC with a PIPE such as this can't work; but the details are important.
All else equal, if an investor wants to buy a PIPE that is common shares at $10 -- that is a much different signal than a convertible preferred with footnotes a mile long.
$PCSC has set a date for merger vote with Freenome; July 9th. Still need registration statement to be declared effective, probably very close at this point;
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
Not sure why, but someone(s) in $PCSC had the bright idea to redeem 3/4 of a million shares for $10.82 when stock has been healthily bid over $11 the entire time. 🤷♂️
Float tightened up even more, not a bad setup going into finalization of Freenome merger
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
Old news, but with Freenome $PCSC CRC test expecting FDA approval sometime this summer; they'll be able to hit the ground running with Exact Sciences (now Abbott). Think Exact Sciences might know a bit about selling colon cancer tests?
prnewswire.com/news-releases…
These are some of the Freenome ( $PCSC merge partner) investors. Many of them are investing MORE money in the PIPE, and some also own common SPAC shares as well. Not bad company to join, especially with NAV floor in place in low 10.80s right now.
I own some $RACC. We'll see what they do. They stepped away from SPACs last cycle, but are back. Another one set to IPO. Minimal founder shares (1.2 million vs 7.5 million offered). Minimal dilution, premade curated shareholder list for the right deal. Kind of like $PCSC;
This is the kind of structure where, in theory, everyone can win - the sponsor, the public investors, the PIPE investors, the target company, etc.
With all the SPACs out there, I'm increasingly focused on the handful of SPACs where interests are better aligned - not pure grift.
Admittedly $RACC is expensive, trading well above NAV, otherwise I'd own a lot more. But it is nice to see a sponsor using the structure for good (potentially) and not evil.
Might be one of the grossest things I've ever seen in SPACs, and that's saying something. A $5 Florida based SPAC, 20 million shares offered, and 23 million founder shares. Where's Liz Warren when we need her?
I used to be in the asset management business. What did we focus on? Our clients. What can we do for our clients.
The amount of greed and just complete disdain and lack of caring for the wellbeing of the investors in these things -- it just continues to mind boggle me.
I like to make fun of Ark (because, let's be real, they are horrible investors). That said - $PCSC target Freenome being mentioned in the company of some of these other names ($SPCX SpaceX, Databricks, OpenAI, Anthropic) -- if/when $PCSC works - people will wonder why they didn't read the signs. Less than 4% over NAV now.
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