We have *never* before seen consumer sentiment this low.

Timely analysis of U.S. debt spiral dynamics from @MarcGoldwein @BudgetHawks (I cited them in today's column also) wsj.com/economy/central-bank…

The thing I’m most surprised by with Beijing’s block of the Manus deal is that they let it get this far. Manus made a big splash last year and was even touted on Chinese state media. The move to Singapore might’ve seemed smart from a commercial standpoint, but the optics were bad for China. China wants its star AI companies listing on Hong Kong and Shanghai, not shedding their China staff and moving out of the country. Then after the deal with Meta was announced in December, there were soon warning signs from Beijing. While the move to Singapore may have raised some eyebrows, the outright acquisition by a US company was clearly crossing a line for Beijing. If there’s a chilling effect from this move, then that’s probably Beijing’s intended point. As I wrote earlier in an FT op-ed, I expected Beijing to want to stop the “Manus route” from becoming a trend. Ever since Jack Ma, Chinese tech entrepreneurs have treaded carefully, fearful of getting in trouble with Beijing. But the lines are never fully clear and can be redrawn after the fact. What has become clear is that Chinese companies are increasingly reaching the tech frontier. And like other countries with tech firms at the frontiers of their fields, China will want to exert some control given their potential strategic value. This creates a dilemma for Chinese tech founders with global ambitions. The more successful they become, the more attractive they are to global partners and investors—but also the more likely Beijing is to treat them as national strategic assets. This tension will likely grow over time.

U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge 46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers: The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a 70% jump. The Southeast followed with 105, up 69%. Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country. Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped 87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne. For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation. Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss. Farms are under pressure.

Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would put the price hike at more like $150 ... 1/2

Chinese battery makers had 70% of the global EV battery market in 2025. South Korean battery makers are struggling to remain profitable. Top 5 battery makers: 1. 🇨🇳 CATL 39.2% 2. 🇨🇳 BYD 16.4% 3. 🇰🇷 LG Energy 9.2% 4. 🇨🇳 CALB 5.3% 5. 🇨🇳 Gotion 4.5% Chart: asia.nikkei.com/business/aut…

S&P Global's @DanielYergin, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power," told me the Iran war "points to the possibility of the nightmare scenario" for markets and the economy:

Don't see that everyday:

Three sources tell 60 Minutes that undercover agents purchased a miniaturized microwave weapon from a Russian criminal network. Secret U.S. military lab testing of the device on rats and sheep has resulted in symptoms similar to Havana Syndrome, a confidential source says. cbsn.ws/4d7bHkz

The trade deficit continued to increase in the past month as imports surged ahead of tariffs.

I just got off the phone with a business owner in Mississippi. He’s pumped millions into a business distributing a product he imports from China. His contract with the company prevents him from manufacturing it in the U.S. He also has contracts with a number of large retailers (Walmart, Walgreens, etc). He described some of those contracts as inflexible — requiring him to sell a unit at a set price. He told me he anticipates paying over $1 million in tariffs next week (as the 54% tariff kicks in) and has no ability to simply upcharge his retail customers to cover the expense. In his words, “Russ, I don’t have 54% profit. This is put me out of business stuff.” I share this because there are probably tens of thousands of businesses in similar situations. I just happened to have one reach out to me.

Retail Sales ex-gas and autos 0.8% MoM Hasn't been higher since Jan 2023

Retail sales for June show consumers are still fine but retailers report increased price sensitivity and deal shopping. The goods share of consumer spending is a great visualization of that behavior--firms are once again competing for wallet share and must offer value

Part of the confusion about recession rn is because the fake recession signals we had 12 mths - the bullwhip in global manufacturing & the big squeeze on real incomes - are starting to unwind while we are simultaneously getting genuine demand destruction from monetary policy

ChatGPT has crossed 1M users in just 5 days. To compare, it took Netflix 41 months, FB - 10 months, and Instagram - 2.5 months. But many haven’t yet realized its full potential. Here are the 10 mindblowing things you can do using it right now:

Congrats @jeremyhobson on @TheMiddleradio ! From the response it’s getting I’d say this is the show (and podcast) the US is discovering it needs. open.spotify.com/show/5l5B4I…

“fry attachment rate” my new favorite economic measure.

RT @LORRAKON: Everyone at the Oscar’s when Will Smith assaulted Chris Rock on national television #Oscars

This is A HUGE loss for @npr . I love and admire @nprAudie greatly as a broadcaster and as a person.