Full-time in markets since 2016. A/D Method expert | NISM XV Certified | Tweets on Indian/Global markets, economy & emerging tailwinds. Perma bull on India!
Joined September 2019
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Jun 5
The Universal Stage Analysis Course is now LIVE!
Learn a simple framework to trade and invest across Indian & US markets, commodities, gold, silver, and crypto.
Introductory pricing is available only for the first 50 students before the price is revised higher.
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#Crypto #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis
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The Accumulation Insider - Issue 03 is out now !
The things you wouldn't find people talking about yet - the things that help catch a trend early - sector which is seeing smart money accumulation and much more 👇🏼
open.substack.com/pub/sandee…
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Success is never accidental!
So you might as well start working towards what you really want in life instead of waiting for a miracle !
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Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote :
“Shallow men believe in luck, believe in circumstances… Strong men believe in cause and effect.”
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Tmrw morning the 3rd issue of the Accumulation Insider will be out . But, if you have missed our 1st and 2nd issue here are the Substack links .
Issue 1 - sandeepforad.substack.com/p/…
Issue 2 - sandeepforad.substack.com/p/…
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On this handle you will probably see more of bullish tweets on Indian Economy & Indian markets.
If you are someone who is bearish or has an opposite view you won’t enjoy reading the posts and articles we put out.
If you are someone who wants to understand markets better - economy better and also bullish on India’s growth story then you will definitely enjoy our posts.
We break down complex stuff into something far simpler to understand. Because we honestly believe you can make serious money only when you understand what you are doing and rely less on your luck.
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Has India Already Seen the Worst of Foreign Outflows?
After months of relentless selling, India may finally be turning a corner.
According to Lighthouse Canton, the peak of foreign investor outflows could now be behind us. With inflation cooling, growth staying resilient, and policy support remaining strong, the headwinds that weighed on Indian markets are beginning to fade.
But that’s only half the story.
The real reason they remain constructive on India could surprise you👇
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India’s AI Gap Could Actually Be Its Biggest Advantage
While the US and China are spending hundreds of billions of dollars building cutting-edge AI models, India may not need to win that race.
Lighthouse Canton believes India’s strength lies in adoption, not invention. By leveraging existing AI tools, Indian companies can boost productivity, improve margins, and accelerate growth—without carrying the massive costs of developing AI from scratch.
And when you combine that with what’s already happening on the ground, the opportunity becomes even bigger👇
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Capex AI: A Powerful Growth Cocktail
India is already in the middle of one of its largest investment cycles, with money flowing into infrastructure, manufacturing, and digital public platforms.
Now add AI-driven productivity gains to the mix.
If foreign outflows have indeed peaked, investors may soon stop asking, “Who is selling India?” and start asking, “How fast can India grow?”
That shift in narrative could be the next big market story.
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The Fiscal Deficit Surprise That Could Fuel India’s Next Rally
Reports suggest India could allow its fiscal deficit to widen to 4.8% of GDP if oil prices remain elevated.
At first glance, that sounds negative. But if the extra borrowing helps preserve government spending, India’s powerful capex cycle in roads, railways, defense and infrastructure can continue uninterrupted.
Sometimes the market rewards growth protection more than fiscal perfection.
But here’s where the story gets even more interesting… 👇
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The RBI May Have Changed The Equation
Normally, a higher fiscal deficit means more government borrowing and higher bond yields.
But the RBI and government have recently taken major steps to attract foreign investors into Indian government bonds, making the market far more accessible and attractive.
That means India could potentially fund a larger deficit without seeing the usual spike in borrowing costs.
And that could have huge implications for equity investors… 👇
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The Real Winner Could Be India’s Capex Story
If foreign bond inflows absorb a portion of the government’s borrowing needs, India may be able to maintain fiscal support while keeping interest rates relatively stable.
That would be a major positive for capital goods, infrastructure, railways, defense, industrials and engineering companies.
The market isn’t just watching the deficit number. It’s watching whether India can keep the investment cycle alive despite an oil shock.
And right now, that possibility looks increasingly real
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Oil’s Retreat Could Put India’s Inflation Worries Back to Rest
India’s retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, but the headline number doesn’t tell the full story. Despite the increase, inflation remains below the RBI’s 4% target, suggesting that price pressures are still largely under control.
A major contributor to the rise was crude oil. Brent crude averaged close to the mid-$90s per barrel during May, keeping transportation and logistics costs elevated across the economy. However, the situation appears to be changing rapidly. Brent has now slipped below $90 per barrel, easing one of the biggest inflation risks facing India.
If crude prices remain at current levels or move lower, the impact should gradually flow through to fuel, freight and several consumer-facing industries in the coming months. Combined with a healthy monsoon outlook, this could help keep inflation comfortably contained.
For investors, the key takeaway is that while May’s CPI saw a modest uptick, the trend remains favorable. If oil prices continue to cool, inflation worries could fade quickly, giving both policymakers and markets greater confidence in India’s growth outlook.
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Jun 12
Global Funds Are Underweight India - That Could Be the Biggest Bullish Signal
According to Citi, India's allocation in Global Emerging Market (GEM) funds has fallen to a 5-year low.
Most investors see this as a negative.
Markets often see it differently.
The best opportunities are rarely found where everyone is already invested. They are found where positioning is light and expectations are low.
But the real story isn't how much India has fallen in portfolios—it's what happens when that trend reverses. 👇
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Jun 12
India's long-term story remains intact.
One of the fastest-growing major economies
Massive infrastructure buildout
Manufacturing and defence capex cycle
Formalisation driving productivity gains
Strong domestic liquidity supporting markets
Yet global investors remain cautious.
That's often how major rerating opportunities are created.
The question isn't why investors are underweight today. The question is what happens when they aren't. 👇
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Jun 12
If oil prices remain contained, earnings growth improves and macro conditions stay stable, the same funds that reduced India exposure may be forced to increase allocations again.
When a market is under-owned, even small shifts in sentiment can trigger large inflows.
The biggest rallies don't begin when everyone is bullish. They begin when investors are underweight, skeptical, and forced to change their minds.
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Jun 12
The accumulation comes in the best in the last 2 weeks - smart money did go out there and buy today.
We should see continuation in their buying if everything gets settled over the weekend.
#AccumulationData
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Jun 12
Brent at the lowest level in more than 2 months - this completely changes India’s macro outlook .
If war stops for good and things go back to normal be ready for some killer Q2 earnings !!
All the bears - you guys played well now make way for the big boys !!
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Bulls here we go 🤩
Jun 12
#WestAsiaWar | US-Iran MoU Stipulates Re-opening Hormuz Within 30 Days, Oil Sanctions On Iran To Be Lifted Under Deal: Bloomberg Quoting Mehr News
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Jun 12
SEBI's Latest Reform: One Stock, One Reference Price
SEBI has proposed a single reference price for stocks listed on multiple exchanges, aiming to improve market efficiency and transparency.
Here's a simple example:
if a stock closes at â‚ą1,000 on NSE and â‚ą990 on BSE, both exchanges would use a common reference price based on the exchange where the stock sees the highest trading volume. This eliminates discrepancies and ensures a more consistent trading experience.
While the change may seem technical, it strengthens price discovery, reduces distortions, and enhances investor confidence - another step towards making India's capital markets more robust and globally competitive.
#IndianMarkets
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