Macro. Geopolitics. Real Estate. Market Signals. Insightful analysis on the forces moving global finance. | *Not Financial Advice
Joined May 2015
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19 Oct 2023
Short to medium term high in Treasury yields may be close ( $tlt bottom)
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Mar 27
$1T. $2T. $3.5T. Everyone's quoting a different private credit number — and they're all technically right.
Map every funded claim on the same underlying dollar and real exposure is closer to $6T globally.
#PrivateCredit #CreditMarkets #BDC 👇
open.substack.com/pub/savetr…
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Mar 15
If private credit stress broadens, the cleaner bank screen may be NDFI loans CLO proxy exposure vs. equity, not just direct holdings. This week’s $JPM & $MS markdowns and private credit redemption pressure are a reminder. #PrivateCredit #Banks
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Mar 15
Main point: this is a broad-based proxy, not a claim that every dollar shown is direct private credit exposure.
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The $2,700 "Conflict Tax" is here. ⛽️
With oil moving towards $100/bbl as Iran tensions escalate, the average US household faces an economic drain:
• $1,411: Direct hit at the pump
• $1,275: "Hidden" cost on groceries/shipping
This is a $360B wealth transfer from consumers to energy markets. History shows if prices stay elevated this triggers a spending slowdown within 3-6 months.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Markets #Inflation
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This chart shows the Strait of Hormuz going quiet in real time.
The IRGC closed the strait and threatened to burn any ship that passes.
20% of global oil. 20% of global LNG. Shut down.
Crude has been racing higher. Europe gas prices nearly doubled.
#Hormuz #IranWar #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #GlobalTrade #Commodities #MacroTrading #Geopolitics #OOTT #NatGas
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Feb 24
5. Total loans increased $267.8B (2.0%) in Q4.
Annual loan growth accelerated to 5.9%, the fastest pace in 11 quarters.
Growth was led by NDFI, credit card, CRE, and C&I loans.
#LoanGrowth #C&I #CreditCards #FDIC
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Feb 24
6. The FDIC “Problem Bank List” increased to 60 banks ( 3 QoQ).
That’s 1.4% of total banks, still within normal non-crisis ranges but the first increase since 2023.
#ProblemBanks #BankStability #FDIC
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$SPY is sending a clean message: 6 of the last 7 sessions saw heavy selling right off the open. That repeated “sell the morning” tape looks like steady distribution, not random noise. Feels like cross-border de-risking, likely Europe leaning on US equities into the US open, a “Sell America” flow. #SPY #SPX #ES_F #markets #equities #investing
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Jan 14
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Jan 14
Supreme Court opinion day today with multiple boxes out, meaning up to four rulings could drop. The spotlight is on the case testing the legality of Trump’s global tariffs under emergency powers, which could reshape presidential trade authority and markets. #SCOTUS #Tariffs #USPolitics
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Q4 2025 corporate bankruptcies: 47 filings (vs 51 in Q4 24). The 10 quarter moving average is still near cycle highs.
Notable Q4 filers:
• Pine Gate Renewables 7.1BN (Solar)
• United Site Services 2.9BN (Equipment Rental)
• Kleopatra Finco 2.7BN (Plastics)
Source: BankruptcyData
#Bankruptcy #Chapter11 #CreditMarkets #HighYield #DistressedDebt #FinTwit #Macro
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