Founder @ McDuck Enterprises, Adventure Capitalist, Pince-nez glasses and spats aficionado. 95% Intraday Speculator.
Joined August 2014
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Jun 11
'China's commerce ministry did not respond to a faxed request for comment' - Have they tried telegraph?
Expect $AXTI to get hit on this today.
reuters.com/world/china/chin…
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Scrooge McDuck retweeted
Jun 10
Softbank down 8% on failing to secure loan for OAI.
I would expect $ORCL to get hammered today.
Apr 28
SoftBank (-10% in its Asian session today) is the cleanest readthrough here so far: it’s basically a leveraged equity bet on OpenAI with its ~11% stake.
Oracle is a bit different here and arguably even riskier. It’s tied to -$300B in compute and data center buildout.
If OpenAI demand wobbles, $ORCL isn’t just a valuation story but a balance sheet story.
Short $ORCL today and seeing it even lower than early ARCA prints around $167 but pls dyor!
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Jun 10
If you want to short $SMCI then Bernstein gives you bullets today.
Given their history, they prob funnel out some of it with through inflated hairdryer invoices.
On 18th of May they said they have plenty of cash and no need for financing.
2 weeks ago.
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Jun 10
Softbank owns around 13% of OpenAI.
That stake is “worth” ca $100 billion.
They can’t get a $6 billion loan on it?
This is super fishy.
$ORCL the best derivative on OAI due to the fact that they are dependent on compute commits and OAI / Softbank financing.
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Jun 10
Just 2 weeks ago I covered my short at $188/sh and took a decent hit on the chin.
Can’t seem to find a bid now.
Sighs.
$SOI
May 28
Jefferies commenting on lackluster $SOI results.
General consensus seems to be whether the stock’s huge YTD rally of 565% through wednesday, and question if the lack of quantified upside to photonics opportunity and some mixed numbers overall will be enough to support that today.
I expect that to fade a bit. Careful though, french name.
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Scrooge McDuck retweeted
Jun 9
Based on public disclosures, OpenAI has committed nearly $1.4T towards compute across the board
These compute commitments are holding up equity prices, earnings expectations and backlogs across the board
The company has turned itself into a systemic risk for everyone in AI
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Jun 10
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Scrooge McDuck retweeted
Jun 10
indications that Debt markets are closing for OpenAI will surely be watched by funding round participants as well
if funding rounds stall, what options are left for OAi looking at that massive cash burn - ofc only the IPO and subsequent equity issuance, which then will be conducted from a position of relative weakness, esp compared to Anthropic
cracks definitely starting to emerge
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Scrooge McDuck retweeted
Jun 9
MS on $GEV:
"Our view remains that gas turbine industry orders decrease in 2027 (vs 2026 levels of ~117GW). This view is driven by (1) an already high level of behind the meter gas turbine data center orders relative to build rates, and (2) our view that Middle East power infrastructure investments may see some delays"
"But, any way you cut the data, the Gas turbine market looks balanced at best in 2030, and more likely it starts to look over-supplied into the 2030"
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Scrooge McDuck retweeted
This is the chart that everyone should be watching.
If the Token Pricing rolls over, everything from the memory trade to the broader hard-ware and data-centre trade is over for this cycle imho.
The whole setup depends on this..
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