Imagine if you put a Western Haynesville in Canada, and made the D&C 80% cheaper. That's what Murphy Sundown is. They just drilled a fresh 8 well pad so let's compare the plays.
First chart is a sample of Western Haynesville wells and the average of the group (30% cutoff), the second shows Murphy's Sundown wells vs. Western Haynesville average (which is almost in-line), and the third is the absolute gutshot semi-log rate/cum where the Murphy wells thanks to better rock quality, will end up producing 50% more gas despite lower IP rates.
Pretty sweet wells, right. Yes, unfortunately, and because of the royalty regime (among other things), these wells are still a 14% IRR and 0.17x P/I10% at US$3.75/MMBtu Henry Hub and -US$2.00/MMBtu basis.
Unfortunately they're completely uneconomic at US$3.50/MMBtu Henry Hub and -US$2.15/MMBtu basis.
SOMEONE BUILD NEW PIPELINES PLEASE.