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SignalStrikes
A selective, edge-based betting system.
We do not force plays.
If no edge exists:
We PASS.
Every play is:
• price-driven
• market-based
• long-term focused
This is not about volume.
This is about discipline and ROI.
Strike only when it matters.
2
538
Official Play: Rays ML -120
Conf: 6.5, 1.25u
Edge:
The market is still pricing Tampa as only a modest favorite despite the Rays holding advantages across multiple areas of the matchup
Tampa owns the stronger overall roster, deeper lineup, superior bullpen, and better organizational profile
The projected starting-pitching edge favors Tampa, although Legumina’s limited track record keeps confidence from moving higher
The framework prefers the full-game position because Tampa’s bullpen and late-game execution amplify the edge rather than isolate it
Framework fair price projects closer to Rays -145 while the market is offering Rays -120
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #RaysUp
1
246
PHI/MIL is a PASS today.
The market has fully adjusted to the Sánchez vs Harrison pitching matchup
Sánchez remains the better starter, but Harrison has performed like a frontline arm himself and significantly narrows the gap
Milwaukee retains a meaningful bullpen advantage and home-field support, both of which are already reflected in the pricing
Framework fair price lands approximately Phillies -125 to -130 while the market sits at Phillies -130
The F5 market is also efficiently priced, with Phillies -140 exceeding our fair projection of roughly -135
Total projects near 6.8–7.0 against a market of 6.5, creating no actionable edge
#MLB #ThisIsMyCrew #RingTheBell
16
Official Play: Cardinals ML -105
Conf: 7.5, 1.50u
Edge:
The market is pricing this game close to a coin flip despite the Cardinals owning the deeper overall lineup
St. Louis carries a meaningful bullpen advantage, which is one of the strongest edges in the matchup
McGreevy and Bradley project close enough that Minnesota does not generate a significant starting-pitching advantage
Minnesota continues to fail the Offensive Separation Test, relying heavily on Buxton and Lewis without consistently generating lineup-wide scoring pressure
Framework fair price projects closer to Cardinals -125 while the market is offering -105
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #STLCards
102
Official Play: Tigers ML -110
Conf: 6.5, 1.00u
Edge:
The market is pricing this game close to a coin flip despite Detroit holding the stronger overall lineup on today's card
Casey Mize continues to provide reliable run prevention and gives Detroit the starting-pitching advantage
Cleveland's offense is materially weakened without José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter
The Guardians bullpen keeps the game closer to even than the lineup matchup suggests, but not enough to eliminate Detroit's value
Framework fair price projects closer to Tigers -125 while the market is offering -110
Total: PASS
#MLB #RepDetroit
219
Official Play: Tigers F5 ML -110
Conf: 7.0, 1.25u
Edge:
Casey Mize owns the stronger starting-pitching profile and the largest edge in the matchup is concentrated in the first five innings
Cleveland enters without José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter, significantly reducing offensive firepower
Detroit's lineup projects better against Williams than Cleveland's depleted lineup projects against Mize
The Guardians bullpen advantage is removed from the equation, allowing the starting-pitching edge to carry more weight
Framework fair price projects closer to Tigers -135 while the market is offering -110
#MLB #RepDetroit
282
NYY/TOR is a PASS today.
The framework identifies the Yankees as the better team with the better starter, but the market has already priced those advantages appropriately
Warren owns the starting-pitching edge, yet Yankees F5 -145 exceeds our projected fair value range and fails independent qualification
Toronto's bullpen continues to perform better than preseason expectations and helps keep the full-game market efficient
The total projects very close to market with only a minor lean toward the Under that does not justify exposure
The framework is designed to bet value, not simply the team most likely to win
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #RepBX #BlueJays
75
Official Play: Miami Marlins ML 135
Conf: 6.5, 0.75u
Edge:
Framework projects Pittsburgh closer to -135 while the market is hanging -160
Miami continues to profile as a competitive, controlled-game team
Max Meyer gives the Marlins a stronger starting-pitching foundation than market perception suggests
Miami’s bullpen now grades neutral-to-positive rather than a liability
The market appears to be charging a substantial premium for Paul Skenes’ reputation
F5: LIVE
Total: PASS
#MLB #Marlins
318
Official Play: MIA F5 ML 135
Conf: 7.5, 1.25u
Edge:
Framework projects Pittsburgh closer to -120 through five innings while the market is hanging -185
Max Meyer now grades as a legitimate positive starter rather than a fade candidate
The market is pricing an excessive gap between Skenes and Meyer
Bullpen variance is removed, allowing the wager to focus on the starting-pitching matchup
This represents the largest framework discrepancy available on the board
ML: LIVE
Total: PASS
#MLB #LetsGoFish
160
Official Play: ARI/CIN Over 9.5 -120
Conf: 6.5, 1.0u
Edge:
Framework projects this game closer to 10.0 runs while the market is hanging 9.5
Great American Ball Park remains one of the better offensive environments in baseball
Gallen continues to carry volatility concerns and is no longer pricing as a true run-suppression arm
Arizona brings the stronger lineup and is capable of creating pressure throughout the game
Both teams project to require meaningful bullpen involvement, increasing late-game scoring potential
The total provides a larger measurable edge than either side market
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
#MLB #Dbacks
37
SignalStrikes - Results for 6/13/26
Daily W-L-P: 2-1-1
Daily Net Units: 0.78u
Daily ROI: 17.33%
Starting 5/4/26:
All Time W-L-P: 74-63-7
All Time Net Units: -4.8u
All Time ROI: -3.00%
1
30
Official Play: Rays ML -115
Conf: 7, 1.25u
Edge:
The market is treating this matchup as essentially a coin flip despite Tampa owning the stronger full-game profile
Soriano holds the starting-pitching edge, but Tampa retains the bullpen advantage, organizational advantage, and superior late-game win-conversion profile
This is exactly the type of spot where the Rays framework prefers Full-Game exposure over F5 exposure
The handicap is driven by bullpen amplification and leverage control rather than starting-pitcher dominance
Market appears to be overweighting the starting-pitching matchup while underweighting Tampa’s overall team advantages
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #Rays
1
443
Rays ML -115 was a LOSS
Result: -1.25u
Edge missed:
The handicap correctly identified Tampa's bullpen and organizational advantages, but those edges never had an opportunity to impact the game
Soriano completely controlled the matchup, holding the Rays scoreless through 5 innings and limiting offensive pressure throughout
Tampa's offense failed to convert opportunities, finishing with 5 hits, 4 walks, 0 runs, and 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position
The wager relied on Tampa overcoming a starting-pitching disadvantage over nine innings, but the game never reached the leverage situations where the Rays typically create value
The better starter controlled the game from the opening inning and the projected full-game edge never materialized
#MLB #RaysUp
25
Jun 13
Official Play: Cardinals ML -115
Conf: 6.5, 0.75u
Edge:
Liberatore provides the starting-pitching edge while St. Louis also carries the stronger overall season profile
The Cardinals possess the superior platoon matchup and bullpen advantage
Minnesota does not qualify as an offensive-separation team in this matchup
Market is offering St. Louis below our fair price of -135 despite advantages in starting pitching, lineup matchup, and overall game profile
Total: PASS
#MLB #STLCards
1
240
Cardinals ML -115 was a WIN
Result: 0.65u
Edge hit:
The framework correctly identified St. Louis as the stronger full-game side despite the market pricing the matchup near a coin flip
The Cardinals generated 13 hits and 9 runs while receiving contributions throughout the lineup
Minnesota's bullpen volatility became the deciding factor as the seventh inning completely changed the game
The full-game market correctly captured St. Louis' lineup depth, bullpen advantage, and superior overall team profile
Production came from the lineup as a whole rather than relying on isolated star power
#MLB #STLCards
122
Jun 13
Official Play: Cardinals F5 ML -110
Conf: 7.5, 1.25u
Edge:
Liberatore owns the strongest starting-pitching advantage in the matchup
The Cardinals lineup is specifically built to attack left-handed pitching
Minnesota fails today's Offensive Separation Test and lacks a reliable path to early scoring leverage
The market is pricing the first five innings close to a coin flip despite the framework making Cardinals F5 closer to -130
#MLB #STLCards
1
202
Cardinals F5 ML -110 was a PUSH
Edge partially hit:
The handicap correctly identified a Cardinals starting-pitching advantage and favorable offensive matchup against Prielipp
St. Louis generated early offense and pressured Minnesota throughout the first half of the game
However, Liberatore failed to fully capitalize on the projected edge, allowing 4 runs and 3 home runs in 4.1 innings
The expected starting-pitching separation never materialized strongly enough to create an F5 lead
The framework identified the right side, but the early-game edge was not large enough to overcome mediocre execution
#MLB #STLCards
70
Jun 13
Official Play: MIA/PIT Under 9.5 110
Conf: 7.5, 1.25u
Edge:
Framework projects this game closer to 8.0 runs while the market is hanging 9.5
PNC Park remains a favorable under environment
Miami continues to profile more as a pitching-supported team than an offensive-separation team
Pittsburgh's lineup remains inconsistent and lacks sustained offensive pressure
Market appears to be overreacting to recent Miami scoring outputs
Significant value exists above the key number of 9
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
#MLB #LetsGoFish #LetsGoBucs
1
41
Under 9.5 ( 110) was a WIN
Result: 1.38u
Edge hit:
Framework projected this game closer to 8.0 runs while the market was hanging 9.5
PNC Park once again played as a favorable run-suppression environment
Miami reverted back to its pitching-first identity despite recent offensive success
Neither offense generated sustained scoring pressure and the game finished with just 5 total runs
The opener-plus-bullpen structure successfully limited Pittsburgh to 3 runs and validated the full pitching-plan approach
#MLB #LetsGoFish #LetsGoBucs
6
PHI/MIL is a PASS today.
Milwaukee remains the more likely winner, but the market has pushed both the full-game and F5 prices beyond framework fair value
Brewers ML is priced at -170 versus a fair price of -140, eliminating the edge
Brewers F5 is priced at -160 versus a fair price of -130, removing any early-game value
Aaron Nola’s underlying talent level and Philadelphia’s offensive ceiling are not being fully respected by the market
The total sits directly on our projection of 8.5 and offers no measurable advantage
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #ThisIsMyCrew #Ringthebell
171
Jun 13
DET/CLE is a PASS today.
The handicap clearly favored Detroit behind the Skubal advantage, but the market fully accounted for it
Tigers ML moved almost exactly to our fair price of -145, eliminating any meaningful value
The F5 market became even more expensive, charging a premium beyond our projected number of -150
The total landed directly on our projection and offered no measurable edge
The framework identified the likely winner but not a profitable wager
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #GuardsBall
121
Jun 13
ARZ/CIN is a PASS today.
Arizona remained the preferred side, but the market pushed both the ML and F5 beyond framework fair value
Arizona ML moved from a playable position to -150 despite a fair price closer to -130
Arizona F5 became even more expensive, with the market overstating Soroka's starting-pitching advantage
The total remained efficiently priced near our projection with no measurable edge
The handicap still favored Arizona, but the betting value was gone
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #DBacks #ATOBTTR
1
1
139
Jun 13
NYY/TOR is a PASS today.
The framework identified the Yankees as the better team and the Yankees F5 as the stronger early-game side
However, the market fully priced those advantages before first pitch
Yankees ML moved into fair-value territory and Yankees F5 matched our projected number exactly
The total market was also efficiently priced with no measurable edge remaining
ML: PASS
F5: PASS
Total: PASS
#MLB #BlueJays #RepBX
168