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#RepDetroit vs
#GuardsBall
Gavin Williams “O” 17.5 Outs
(-115)
@DraftKings
✅ Filtered Sample Favors the Over
Using the filter shown in your data — opponents ranked between 10th and 20th in AVG vs RHP (Detroit currently ranks 18th) — Williams has cleared 17.5 Outs in 6 of his last 10 starts (60%).
More importantly, he’s averaging 19.2 Outs with a 19.5 Outs median, both comfortably above today’s line. That’s nearly a full inning beyond the threshold we’re asking him to reach.
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✅ Detroit Has Been Overmatched by Williams
The matchup history is extremely encouraging:
104 AB
15 Hits
.144 AVG
.219 OBP
.203 SLG
.423 OPS
44 Strikeouts
10 Walks
1 HR Allowed
5 RBI Allowed
A .144 batting average and .423 OPS allowed are elite numbers, while the 44 strikeouts in 104 at-bats show how difficult it has been for Detroit hitters to put the ball in play consistently.
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✅ Strikeout Ability Creates Longer Outings
Williams doesn’t need perfect run prevention to cash this prop. His swing-and-miss arsenal allows him to escape jams and avoid extended innings.
Against a Tigers lineup that has already struck out 44 times against him, the strikeout upside significantly improves his chances of pitching through six full innings.
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✅ Progressive Field and Weather Help the Pitcher
The forecast calls for 73°F temperatures with an 11 mph wind blowing in from left field, conditions that generally suppress power and favor pitchers.
Fewer extra-base hits means fewer stressful innings and a better chance for Williams to stay on the mound deeper into the game.
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My Model vs Market
Market Line: 17.5 Outs (-115)
My Projection: 18.9 Outs
Factors supporting the projection:
19.2 Outs average in the filtered sample
6-for-10 Over hit rate
.144 AVG allowed to Detroit hitters
.423 OPS allowed
44 strikeouts in 104 career AB vs Tigers
Pitcher-friendly weather conditions
Fair Price: -138
With the market offering -115, I see a solid edge on the Over.
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Final Verdict
🎯 Play: Gavin Williams Over 17.5 Outs (-115)
✔️ Cleared in 6 of the last 10 qualifying starts (60%)
✔️ Averaging 19.2 Outs in the filtered sample
✔️ Tigers hitting just .144 against him historically
✔️ Elite .423 OPS allowed vs Detroit
✔️ 44 strikeouts in 104 AB against this lineup
✔️ Conditions favor pitchers at Progressive Field
📊
@PropsEdge
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Today's Cheat Sheet (6/14)
🔥 Top Batters/Pitchers
❄️ Cold Batters/Pitchers
📋 My Ranking
🌤️. Weather
🏟️ Ballpark Factor
🧢 Umpire (I don’t have the list yet, but I might update it later)
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