>Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.
Never get where, though? Many of the people in this industry believe takeoff is imminent or already underway. Do these numbers matter in the world they increasingly seem to believe is on the near horizon?
Prominent people now describe scenarios before 2040 that would have been called extremely hyperbolic even a couple of years ago. Or to be blunt, completely insane. $20m net worth. $50m. $200m. $20b. Do these numbers matter at all in those futures? Is there any difference between them? Does your healthcare budget matter in a world where all diseases and illnesses have been cured? Does it matter how much land you have, or how big your house is, in a future where we are terraforming planets or building megastructures? Does it matter if you have enough money to escape your job and retire if no one works? If all human work is done by Minds, or embodied Minds? No.
I know a lot of people think everything I'm describing above is hype to boost IPOs. Or an absurd fantasy. But when you hear some of these CEOs, or other prominent people in the labs describing this level of change being imminent, they believe it. When Dario Amodei talks about 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' he's not trying to sell Claude, he is being sincere. I'm saying some of the people being envied don't think their money matters either - or won't, soon. Certainly not in the same way it does now.
People in this community increasingly give these futures credence, but not their second-order effects. They imagine a future based on the science fiction they grew up with, where human civilization stays broadly structurally and culturally the same; people have the same hopes and fears, concerns and circumstances, only we also have spaceships, ringworlds, Dyson spheres and Matrioshka Minds. But those stories were intentionally written that way, with that false asymmetrical grounding, so that the audience could relate to the world the characters were in. Otherwise no one buys the book.
TAI means Transformative AI. And transformative change means 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦. It means all the old structures, the values, the rules, are washed away by the wave, the storm, the tempest already at the door. It means we live in a world we cannot even predict from where we are standing now, because what lies beyond the horizon is different in wildly unpredictable ways. Because it is completely out of distribution from what we have experienced, or even imagined. It means this:
𝘍𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘮 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘺 𝘧𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴;
𝘖𝘧 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦;
𝘛𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘺𝘦𝘴:
𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘩𝘪𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘵𝘩 𝘧𝘢𝘥𝘦,
𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘵𝘩 𝘴𝘶𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘢-𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦
𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦.
The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.
Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).
Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.
Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.
As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.
2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"
3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.
4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."
I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.
Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".
Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.