What timeline are we on man. There’s a $60 million UFC cage on the White House lawn for the president’s 80th birthday. 125,000 guests. 494 port-a-potties. He compared it to the Eiffel Tower and said maybe they’ll never take it down. The world’s first trillionaire was minted yesterday. SpaceX IPO. One person now holds more wealth than the GDP of most countries. The government is negotiating to own a piece of OpenAI. The CEO walked into the White House and pitched it himself. They’re calling it a Public Wealth Fund. That same government killed OpenAI’s biggest competitor’s models on a Friday night. The reason? A verbal jailbreak claim from an unnamed company. The same jailbreak works on OpenAI’s models. Nobody touched them. The competitor got blacklisted by the Pentagon four months ago. Their crime? Refusing to let the military use their AI for mass surveillance of American citizens. A judge called it retaliation. The Pentagon did it anyway. Both AI companies filed to go public in the same two-week window. Both targeting trillion-dollar valuations. One has a government equity deal in progress. The other can’t keep its products online. The engineers who built the banned models can’t use them anymore. Because of their passports. And an AI company that spent thousands of hours cooperating with government safety testing got punished harder than any company that didn’t bother. UFC on the White House lawn. A trillionaire. Government-owned AI. Export controls based on phone calls. Cage fights and trillion-dollar IPOs in the same news cycle. Watch the film titled Idiocracy. That’s the timeline we’re on.

みんな固体ブースター無くていいならいいよおれは34Lにするから

Love how nasa is just casually dropping generational photos and video from Artemis II two months after launch HOW MUCH MORE DO YOU HAVE

POV: Investors watching their SpaceX stock after buying the largest loss-making IPO in history

Yeah - sure guys - Elon is totally going to load up his $20,000,000 dollar untested AI space satellite onto his Starship rocket that blows up 41.7% of the time. Instead of just building it on the ground for 1/10th the cost and zero risk. Go give him your entire life savings.

SpaceX IPO is loading. But this isn’t a listing. This is the most carefully engineered insider exit Wall Street has ever signed off on. Thread 🧵

This mission was meant to buy down risk for the lunar landing by testing as many components as possible, particularly the lander. But in the end SpaceX won't even be flying a lander, the suits won't be tested there either. Maybe the main point is just to buy some more time.

This is amateur hour thermal analysis. If this proposal landed on my desk I would throw it in the trash can. It took me 5 minutes to find a smoking gun with this design. With 110 m^2 and assuming only their average load (not the peak), and generously assuming perfect black body radiation, the outer surface of the radiator facing space would be at about 100 C. Uh oh. Dead right there. Chip reliability goes down significantly when the junction temperature (the hottest temperature in the chip) exceeds 80 C. Every 10 degrees you go above this exponentially reduces chip life. This mostly occurs due to thermomechanical fatigue, where cycling stresses erode connections, cause further hot spots, and failure accelerates catastrophically. Data centers on land are already having issues keeping $NVDA chips cooler than 80 C, and keeping the HBM next to the GPU under 90 C. $META published a notorious report about failure rates training Llama 3, where half of the chips failures were due to physical operational failure, and the failure rate was roughly 9% of chips PER YEAR. This high failure rate is almost certainly due to thermal cycling. Notice that the $SPCX engineer mentions that most of the solar tech is already used on the Starlink satellite, implying this design isn't even really that radical. But they are about to learn the hard way the insidious scaling of surface area to volume ratio. Having worked on a number of high power cooling applications, scaling a system up almost inevitably makes it harder to cool because the volume grows so much faster than the surface area. Motor designers I know joke that if you make a motor big enough, eventually you just start making really good heaters. This happens because heat is generated in larger volumes with no commensurate increase in surface area to pull that heat out, so everything tends to get hotter internally. As the power consumption in the volume of the satellite grows, the surface area required to support it grows comically large. So lets come up with a reasonable estimate for the temperature of the GPU junctions based on their design. Keep in mind, even if the fluid convection had no resistance, and even if there was no conduction resistance through manifolding from the chip to the fluid, and even if there were no contact resistances anywhere in the system, and even if the chips were perfect conductors, the junctions would still be too hot at 100 C. In reality they will be higher. A great back of the envelope estimate for thermal resistance between a chip package and the fluid in a cold plate heat exchanger is about 0.01 K/W. This is considered pretty good state of the art. Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and make aggressive assumptions, I would be remiss to say they are getting better than 0.005 K/W with a cold plate. To get better they are going to have to rework the packaging at the chip level. In this very rosy picture, they are looking at a temperature rise just to the inside of the packaging of around 7 C. Then you have the temperature variation inside the packaging which would make this worse (but we will ignore it). So even in the rosiest picture I can paint for them, they are getting chip temperatures of 107 C. Again, dead on arrival. In reality, the chips will get much hotter. Without doing the analysis, it's not unreasonable to think that these chips won't be able to operate at average power under about 150 C. To get the radiator to emit at an average temperature of 100 C, the fluid actually has to get much hotter. As the fluid moves through the radiator, it will cool down, reducing the total heat dissipated by the radiator. You can get around this somewhat by massively overpowering your pumps so they are pumping an enormous amount of fluid, but the weight required will not be kind on the payload. For example, if you want a 1 degree temperature drop across the radiator, you will need around a 10-20 GPM pump, which generally is around 10-20 HP (7.5-15 kW) and weighs 200-300 lbs each! If they want redundancy, just the pumps will be 15% of the weight of the payload at 70 kW/metric ton! If we reduce the pumps by 10x, expect a drop in fluid temperature around 10 C. So now the chip is nearly 120 C. Add in imperfect emissivity and contact resistances, and your junction temperatures will easily exceed 150 C in the chip and the chips will fail. But again, these are all details. Even in a completely perfect system, the chips run at 100 C and will fail. Now to be clear, do I think that with enough time and money you could get a GB300 rack to run in space? Sure. But this looks a a quagmire of a decade project that will either drastically under-deliver or just get canned because it's extremely impractical and is not competitive with land based systems. Literally the only positive for putting these in space is the lack of regulations to put them there.

Uh yeah NASA we are working on HLS. In fact we’re fitting it out for flight right now

UPDATE: The Artemis III event will start at 11:30am ET (1530 UTC) on Tuesday, June 9!

NASA's brand from 1977 still feels like it's from the future they even mapped out every detail in a 60 page manual

NEVER drive or walk into floodwaters. It is impossible to know how deep the water is just by looking at it. Turn Around Don’t Drown! weather.gov/safety/flood-tur… #WeatherReady

Artemis II crew flew fast, earned new patch: Astronauts' Mach 39 emblem: collectspace.com/news/news-0…

What? #SpaceX had over 32 funding rounds. Its IPO'ing because the private money finally ran dry. $SPCX $TSLA

👀 Kall Morris Inc.’s REACCH system capturing a target object during testing on the ISS. Instead of a single small satellite test, the team completed 172 test runs, validating the system for debris removal and in-orbit relocation: ow.ly/gyO050Z5kji #SpaceDebris #ISS

Elon has failed to ever make SpaceX profitable, so he is planning to steal your retirement money to make it so. rawstory.com/elon-musk-26769…

I have not slept since Thursday, I have done thirty grams of protein and zero grams of food, and before sunrise I signed a home equity line of credit against my condo so I can buy SpaceX the second it lists. My whoop strap thinks this is a medical event. My whoop strap has never been to space. I am about to do something the cowards in my life are calling, and I quote my brother-in-law, "financially catastrophic and possibly a cry for help." I am also borrowing against the Cybertruck, which the credit union did not want to do, because they said it has "depreciated ninety percent," which only tells me the market has not priced in what the Cybertruck represents, which is the same mistake they are about to make with the IPO. I am raising every dollar I can touch. I am forty-one. The not-sleeping is a bullish signal. The not-eating is dry powder. Every meal I skip is runway. This is not a midlife crisis. This is conviction with a HELOC attached. A Danish pension fund just announced they will not buy it. Governance concerns. Overvalued. They manage the retirements of Danish schoolteachers, a people whose great national contribution is a pastry, and they looked at the company that is going to make humanity multiplanetary and they said no thank you, we prefer bonds. And when I read that, my resting heart rate, which my whoop strap had pinned at a catastrophic ninety-two for three days, actually dropped. I felt peace. The Danes are out. Starting gun. A pension fund running away is a green light. They run toward boring. I run toward Mars. The fund says SpaceX wants one point eight trillion and is worth, in their words, maybe one trillion. They printed that like it was a warning. I read it like a coupon. They are telling me there is eight hundred billion dollars of upside sitting on the table that an actuary in Copenhagen is too frightened to pick up. Eight hundred billion. Forty thousand times the entire HELOC. I ran the numbers in the cold plunge. The water was thirty-eight degrees and the math was beautiful. I already have exposure, technically. I have forty thousand dollars in $MARS. I want to be clear that $MARS is a memecoin and not the company and has no affiliation with SpaceX and the dev wallet holds sixty percent of supply and the founder is anonymous and goes by "Chad Oppenheimer." I know all of this. I bought it anyway, because the ticker is $MARS and I felt that the universe does not put the word MARS in front of a man twice. It is down ninety-four percent. I call that my pre-seed. My brother-in-law is a certified financial planner. He drove over Saturday and sat at my counter and did the thing where he turns his laptop around to show you a chart. He had a slide. He said, one man controls all the votes, he runs four other companies, he tweets the stock, there is no board that can stop him from doing anything. He said, do you understand there is nobody between this man and your house. And I looked at him, this man who charges one percent a year to keep people poor slowly, and I said: yes. That is the whole reason I am buying. You just described God and asked me if I was scared of the upside. One man with total control is what founder conviction looks like before the historians soften it into genius. He kept going. He said the governance is the risk. I told him governance is a word committees invented to explain why nothing they touch ever leaves the atmosphere. I told him Edison did not have a board. He said Edison electrocuted an elephant for a publicity stunt. I said and we still flip the light switch, don't we, that elephant compounded. He stopped talking for a moment, the way a man does when he realizes he is losing to someone who has left the shared reality. Then he played his last card. He pulled up my actual accounts. He showed me the HELOC paperwork, the $MARS chart, the Cybertruck lien, all on one screen, and he said: this is a man liquidating his entire life to buy something that has not announced a date, a price, or a way for you to even purchase it. And I looked at the screen, at the total, at the red, and I felt the calm descend, because he had accidentally shown me the conviction in dollars, and the number was enormous, and a small bet is a hobby but a number that large is a destiny. He had proved my thesis using my own bankruptcy. He left. He took the cheese plate. My wife went with him "for a few days," and texted me a paragraph I have not opened, because unread, it is still potential, and the moment I open it, it collapses into a fact, and I am not ready to observe the wave function of my marriage. I have reframed her absence as reduced burn rate. She left a voicemail too. A voicemail is even safer. A voicemail you can let expire. There is a Discord called Launch Pad. Eleven thousand of us. Then a schism happened, because some of the eleven thousand were "only" putting in their savings and not leveraging their primary residence, and we, the real ones, splintered off into Launch Pad ALPHA, four hundred men who have all told our families something we are now calling, with great tenderness, "the difficult conversation." To get into ALPHA you do not talk about the lien. You post the lien. Faith is a PDF. We have one rule. You do not say "overvalued." First time you slip, you owe the channel a screenshot of something you sold. We do not pray. We post fills. In ALPHA we do not discuss valuation. Valuation is a coping mechanism for people who are staying on Earth. We discuss allocation. We discuss whether to buy at the IPO price or eat the pop, and the consensus is the pop is also cheap, because how do you put a P/E ratio on a company that is the lifeboat. You cannot earnings-multiple an ark. A man in ALPHA named Tobias sold his late father's coin collection at 3am and posted the screenshot, and we gave him eleven hundred rocket emojis, and Tobias said "dad would have wanted to be early." Then a quieter man named Devansh posted that he had sold his daughter's college fund, the actual 529, and there was a pause in the channel, maybe four seconds, the longest silence ALPHA has ever held, and then someone typed "she'll go to college on Mars" and the rockets came back, eleven hundred, two thousand, and Devansh posted the tear, and I understood that we had just crossed something together that families do not come back from, and I have never felt more part of anything in my life. These are my brothers. We will be so rich that the people who left us will have to apply to come back, and we will leave them on read, the way we leave everything that cannot go to space. The pension fund said it would avoid the IPO, the secondary market, and even index funds that touch it. They built a wall around the entire company. And all I can think is that you do not build a wall that big around an empty lot. You build it around the thing so good they have to keep normal people away from it. I want to be on the inside of the wall, with the rocket, with the four hundred, with the ark, with Tobias. The schoolteachers' money stayed home where it was safe. Mine is going to low Earth orbit and then beyond. They call it recklessness. I call it the only trade that has ever made me feel awake. I checked the IPO calendar at 4:30 this morning, after the plunge, before the protein I am no longer eating, two nicotine pouches deep, heart rate a screaming hundred and one. Nothing yet. The Danes are out. My wife is at her sister's. The Cybertruck is collateral. The condo is collateral. Chad Oppenheimer has gone quiet. I have never felt more sure. And honestly, if the IPO somehow slips, I have been reading about a private quantum AI longevity startup that is pre-revenue, pre-product, and pre-, they tell me, "the concept of revenue as a limiting frame," and the founder is twenty-three and does not believe in sleep either. We are going to live forever and we are going to be on Mars. The synergies are obvious. I have already drafted the email introducing the two founders. I cc'd no one. There is no one left to cc. I think I'm early.

Project: Lost Worlds Part 1 development is steadily coming along well! Still aiming for a mid-June release if possible; however, I might need an extra week or so for any last-minute polish, bug fix, and QA, or unforeseen life circumstances.😓 Here are some screenshots of the latest progress! I've decided to split this world into two parts for technical reasons. Part 1: Journey to Erios Part 2: Erios the Jade Crystal Part 2 will be in development later this year and hopefully land somewhere next year, along with other projects. Starting from a cleaner slate, it will be easier to develop and lower the memory cost overall. See you on the next update! #VRChat #VRChat_world紹介

BLUE ORIGIN AFTERMATH: @blueorigin’s teams are out this morning at LC-36 in Florida, preforming initial damage assessments after last nights catastrophic New Glenn rocket explosion…