I'm sure IBM will make their money back with HashiCorp. I'm equally sure that HashiCorp's value to customers will erode over time, because I've experienced this exact same scenario firsthand.
Nine years ago, Cisco was known as a successful, innovative hardware vendor. They always wanted to get more into software, so they started to explore observability and APM.
AppDynamics was their first big bet. I was a VP at AppDynamics at the time.
At first, it was great.
Cisco let us operate independently so they could learn from us. They even paired our 500 salespeople up with their own reps to go after Fortune 100 accounts together. Then we bundled AppDynamics with Cisco UCS, which got our foot in the door at some major accounts.
But eventually, we ended up spending all of our time on those bundles (with UCS management planes, ThousandEyes, or whatever other company Cisco had just bought).
It wasn't what customers wanted. It was what Cisco wanted, so they could sell more effectively across their base.
And now none of those acquired technologies are as relevant as they once were.
That's just one example in tech's never-ending cycle:
Large, traditional vendors acquire great market-leading companies. They fold them in and achieve a lot of success.
Over time, though, the innovation that made those companies leaders in the first place dries up.
And a new disruptor comes in and ends up winning the market.