I've been here since 2021 and rode the highs and lows
@Stacks is still committed to their long term vision and keeps taking big swings despite market conditions
Next up is Bitcoin Protocol Bonds which could unlock billions in liquidity
Bullish on blockstack:native , time to send it.
Thoughts on Stacks (blockstack:native) and markets:
- The four year cycle stays true. Bitcoin highs are muted but lows also likely muted.
- The AI models discovering bugs issue is real. Flight to safety will be a trend to watch.
- Bitcoin stayed simple with verifiable and transparent supply. All additional functionality can be built on top.
- Stacks optimized for safety and went for a decidable language (Clarity). Safety will end up being *the* thing to optimize for.
- There is likely going to be one maybe two Bitcoin L2s that take all/most of the traffic.
- After Bitcoin gets a quantum upgrade, depending on new signatures, Bitcoin bandwidth will likely decrease by 50%-97%; highlighting increased need for L2s.
- Bitcoin staking is a $100B market with increased demand for BTC on BTC yield coming from institutions and DATs.
- Stacks has seen two cycles before (1) mainnet launch (BTC smart contracts), (2) Nakamoto launch (speed & sBTC), now we’re working on (3) Bitcoin Protocol Bonds launch that unlocks the largest market yet.
- Last year, the ecosystem restructured for operational efficiency plus a new treasury. Stacks Labs is well funded, laser-focused, and hyped up about the new launch.
- Stacks is Lindy in crypto & Bitcoin at this point. Largest Bitcoin project by marketcap & active devs for 5 years. When BTC starts to recover, so will STX but as higher beta.
- Bitcoin might reach $150K-$250K next cycle (halving is early 2028) which is a 3-4x, Stacks is more in the 20-50x range given higher beta history and upcoming catalyst of Bitcoin Protocol Bonds. (Not financial advice and more on protocol bonds later).
- In the chart below, there were only three times in history for lowest entry points. Before mainnet when everything was unproven, before Nakamoto, and now.
- The upcoming SIP for protocol bonds launch will likely get accepted, with good feedback from community to drop/adjust the boosted rewards period (I support adjusting/removing this variable.)
We’re buying here and then patiently waiting next 6-months for protocol bonds to go live, markets to bottom out, and our thesis of Bitcoin as the king asset with a thriving on-chain BTC economy to play out. Let’s go! 🟧