𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝗻 Yesterday I wrote: markets at all-time highs, $VIX below 20, oil below 90. That tells you everything you need to know. Despite what some doomsayers say, the rally itself is the message. When I said “priced in,” a lot of people pushed back, pointing to the Global Financial Crisis. They said: “That wasn’t priced in, so you’re obviously wrong.” But that misses the point. There’s a reason there’s a movie like The Big Short. It shows exactly what happened. Only a small group of people truly understood the risks in the mortgage market. The knowledge wasn’t widespread. Capital didn’t move until it did. And once understanding spread, everything repriced violently and fast. That’s the key difference. Back then, very few people knew. Today, everyone “knows.” Scroll through X and you’ll see the same narratives repeated endlessly. Crude oil risk. Widening credit spreads. Software valuations. Private equity stress.. you name it…. If every average person is talking about it, it’s not hidden information. It may not be 100% priced in, but it’s probably 90% there. Markets don’t wait for certainty. They move on awareness. And when something becomes common conversation, it’s no longer an edge. That’s why there’s no real value in what you read or debate on X about these topics. It’s already in the price.

$SPX down 1% while $VIX is RED - that’s hedge unwinding. When protection comes off into weakness, it usually signals exhaustion in fear. For this Iran-driven cycle, it suggests we’re getting close to a local bottom in my view.

We obsess over what AI can do. The deeper question is what it believes. Every model carries the values of whoever built it. Most of us never ask whose.

If you’re buying Bitcoin now, I’m genuinely curious about the thesis. Is it the future of money? That’s what I heard five years ago, and I still can’t buy much with it. Is it a hedge against inflation? The data suggests otherwise. Is it a counter to dollar devaluation? That hasn’t held up. Is it a hedge against global turmoil? We’ve seen that fail as well. By simple deduction, there’s no clear reason to buy Bitcoin other than to speculate on price. If you have a different thesis, I’d be happy to hear it.

just open a window, its cold AF in Chicago

The effective Fed Funds Rate remains firmly in restrictive territory relative to CPI. It is the widest gap since 2009. For those worried about re-inflation, the Fed still has plenty of room to ease before policy turns neutral.#inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Fed

RT @AnthonyCrudele: Two-Way Tape Developing. The market is finally starting to rotate, and volatility is creeping back in. As I mentioned y…

Never add to a losing trade: - 1. Accept the Loss Early – Losses are part of the game, not personal failures. 2. Set a Predefined Stop – Decide your max loss before entering. 3. Respect the Stop – No “just one more candle” mindset. Exit as planned. 4. No Averaging Down – Resist the urge to "get a better price" on a bad trade. 5. Review & Reflect – Ask: “Was it the setup or my execution?” Then learn.

RT @ZeeContrarian1: So what happened this year? A “bear market” that lasted less than a high schooler’s first time—just enough to show how…

RT @Richards_Karin: Japan’s rocketing bond yield and potential carry-trade unwind has, for me, overtures of LTCM. The smart professors had…

Making empty criticisms of unnamed people like this person is doing reveals a lot about him, and nothing about whoever he is referring to. I don't know what his problem is. I'm not his therapist.

Can we please stop talking about COVID-19 ? It’s like talking about the annual flu vaccine. 🤯 Time to move on…

RT @TechCharts: Example of a Type 2 breakout.

RT @TechCharts: Price dynamics of a #symmetricaltriangle breakout. Challenge: breakout might not clear previous highs. Breach of pattern b…

RT @TechCharts: Example of a Type 3 breakout. In other words, breakout with a hard re-test.

“I put most of my money into the 2–3 best ideas I have. Most portfolios get 70–80% of their returns from just a few positions anyway—despite holding 30 or 40 names. I’d rather focus, watch the basket closely.” —Stan Druckenmiller That’s why I went all-in on $VIX in 2022 and finished the year with double-digit gains. This year, it’s the same playbook: $VIX and a few stocks I know better than anyone—driving high-teens returns. Focus is everything.

“I feel something is coming, let’s buy $VIX.” WRONG. Unless you can time the market perfectly—which you can’t, no one can—buying $VIX options outright is a losing game. Trust me, I’ve spent 15 years learning that the hard way. Just look at the spread I mentioned earlier—if I had only bought calls, I’d be sitting on a $38,104 loss instead of just $969. The issue with spreads isn’t the strategy. It’s discipline. If you don’t set stop losses or take profits, you’ll watch a $0.10 spread run to $2… then try to squeeze another $5 out of it—and end up losing everything. Attaching a take-profit order below your target is smart. Otherwise, you’re playing with fire. Simplify it: You close the trade when $VIX hits the level of the short calls—$31 in this case—or if the spread drops to -$0.20. Or take profit beforehand, a lot obviously depends on time to expiry. Either way, you don’t “fuck around and find out.”

Current situation: 1. Stocks are rising like the trade war is over 2. Gold is rising like the trade war is escalating 3. Yields are rising like the US has avoided a recession 4. Oil prices are falling like the US is entering a recession 5. The US Dollar Index is falling like inflation is gone 6. Bitcoin is rising like inflation is back on the rise Never a dull moment in this market.

The observations of a Relic There is a new generation (Zs), Theirs is a generation of gamblers but, They want everything and want it now They do not want to work for it They got trophies for participation Hit a few profits on Robinhood Got a few payouts from pretend accts And think they can get rich trading pretend futures with pretend money And that will become their profession Sorry, the world does not work this way

RT @PeterLBrandt: Do you want to learn what it means to be a trader? No person can absorb all the inputs the market, computers, social medi…