Polling and Strategic Insights | contact@merlinstrategy.com | British Polling Council member
Joined April 2025
- Tweets 303
- Following 8
- Followers 761
- Likes 408
3 Photos and videos
Merlin Strategy retweeted
You can read @RMCunliffe's writeup of our latest @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield in the @NewStatesman ⬇️⬇️⬇️
"First: the Reform voters. Among this group, the hatred for Keir Starmer and the government they had all voted for in 2024 was visceral. “I’ve never been lied to like I have been by Keir,” said one man. Other members of the cabinet fared little better. Participants had either not heard of them – none had anything to say about Wes Streeting – or viewed them with disdain: Rachel Reeves was “a thief” who “hits the likes of us harder” with tax rises."
What Makerfield believes: Exclusive focus groups reveal the values that will determine the by-election
By Rachel Cunliffe, with data from @Scarlett__Mag
newstatesman.com/politics/uk…
1
9
1,275
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Great to be back on the cover of the @NewStatesman this week. This time with some exclusive @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield 👀
Out in print this week!
THE CASUAL COUP by @PronouncedAlva
On the campaign trail with Andy Burnham:
This is a campaign on several levels. Burnham has “a tough fight” against Reform, as I hear him say repeatedly while watching him door-knocking. But he’s also fighting two other implied contests: with a Labour selectorate of MPs and members, who soon may well have to decide whether to nominate or vote for him to replace Keir Starmer; and with the electorate at large, who soon could find themselves choosing between Burnham and Nigel Farage in a general election. This is a tight by-election against Farage’s Reform, but Burnham is already being scrutinised as a prospective prime minister.
With three weeks to go until polling day, Burnham has allowed me to accompany him while campaigning in Makerfield, an invitation extended only to the New Statesman.
He says this by-election is the last chance to stop Reform. “If I just put it in the terms of Greater Manchester, I feel we’re on the cusp. If we don’t pull it back now, I think something changes.” On Wigan Council, Labour lost all of the seats it was defending to Reform in May. “That’s a very big statement. You can’t just see that and minimise it.” When people ask him “Why this moment?” results like that are why.
As one of Andy Burnham’s closest allies put it to me: “Whatever happens, this will be in the history books.”
Cover photo by Niall Hodson for the New Statesman
3
5
19
3,280
Merlin Strategy retweeted
FPTP used to be criticised for artificially propping up our two party system.
Now, it means that more parties than ever can exert powerful political influence.
I wrote about the new chaos and opportunities of FPTP for this month's @TheCriticMag
May 31
First-past-the-post no longer means an electoral carve-up between the Tories and Labour, allowing “fringe” parties real political influence, writes @Scarlett__Mag
thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-…
3
15
3,348
Merlin Strategy retweeted
May 11
"Weak" "A wet wipe" "Liar".
Voters' verdict on Starmer pre-locals. Our @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research showed that the public have already written off Keir Starmer, and that they are looking for change.
Great to have our work featured on @SkyNews this morning with @SophyRidgeSky
6
12
46
4,342
Merlin Strategy retweeted
No party reaches 25% in Milton Keynes. 4 parties polling between 19-24% of the vote...
1
6
8
2,813
Merlin Strategy retweeted
🧵Some initial reflections in the lull in English results. Foremost this was yet another change election. People just aren’t happy, they want something different. Unlike previous elections they didn’t respond by flipping from one big party to the other but by rejecting both the big two.
1
2
9
10,939
Merlin Strategy retweeted
We asked what people were voting for in today's local elections. One word stands out:
"Change"
From our latest research with Charlesbye @MrLeeCain
1
4
13
2,042
Merlin Strategy retweeted
By a 2-1 voters see their vote in today's elections as based on national factors rather than local ones
From our latest @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research @MrLeeCain
3
13
2,160
Merlin Strategy retweeted
"Weak" is the most common word used to describe Keir Starmer.
Voters up and down the country and across the political spectrum are damning about the PM:
From our recent large-scale recent project with Charlesbye Strategy @MrLeeCain
2
6
14
2,722
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Strikingly, less than 14% of those voting Greens or Reform say they would return to Labour and the Conservatives if they failed to deliver.
31% say they'd look for a new party, 27% say they'd stick with Greens/Reform, 11% say they would not vote.
4
7
6,176
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Voters have never had more options available to them but still a majority say they do not feel represented by a political party.
1
2
7
695
Merlin Strategy retweeted
The 'new' image of the Green Party has not filtered down to all voters yet, with many unaware of Polanski and still primarily associating the party with environmental issues.
The 3rd most popular reason for voting Green is 'they represent the radical change the country needs'
1
2
4
374
Merlin Strategy retweeted
But that's not a good thing in the eyes of all voters.
Some view Reform as racist and dangerous, some see them as the least bad vehicle for change out of the options presented to them (but still have hesitations), and some are genuinely enthusiastic about Farage and his party.
2
2
4
818
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Views of the insurgent parties (Greens and Reform) are very different. The voters for these parties are the ones with the most appetite for change and the highest distrust in the system as it is.
Reform and Greens are seen to be more radical than Conservatives and Labour...
1
3
5
738
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Crucially, the Conservatives fall far behind Reform for which party is best to stop Labour:
3
6
5
738
Merlin Strategy retweeted
Despite Badenoch's recovery, the Conservative brand is still struggling. Voters feel it is "irrelevant" and the party is described as “establishment” and “stuck in the past”.
1
3
10
961
Merlin Strategy retweeted
The Party’s unpopularity is tied closely to government u-turns and a perceived lack of delivery on promises. This was especially true of its handling of the cost-of-living crisis, which most feel has gotten worse since Labour came into power
1
4
8
1,160
Merlin Strategy retweeted
🌹Starting with views on the major parties, the Labour Party has particularly struggled. It is described as “stuck in the past” “liars” and “failure”
2
5
8
2,010
Merlin Strategy retweeted
🧵 We @StrategyMerlin partnered with @MrLeeCain Charlesbye to look at the public mood ahead of the local elections. Across the next few days we will showcase the findings and what they mean for our politics...
2
7
14
2,882