Everyone says SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI IPOs are bullish. They're wrong. Why? Basically, three of the most hyped private companies of the cycle are coming to public markets. Think about it. ⇝ Every IPO is sold to you at peak insider optimism, not peak company growth ⇝ Founders and VCs distribute to retail when retail demand is maximum - by definition ⇝ Lockup expiry six months later is when reality catches up ⇝ Late-cycle IPO clusters historically marked tops, not breakouts 1999 was the same shape. Petscom. Webvan. eToys. All hyped, all sold to public at the top, all gone within 24 months. AI is not crypto. The companies will survive. But the valuations they IPO at probably won't. Behavioral finance calls this the "hot issue market." It's a sign of sentiment not growth. If your thesis depends on buying Anthropic at IPO, your thesis is sentiment - not fundamentals. Sentiment can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I've got bad feelings about this. And now most important point of them all. Random dudes ask me if I'm joining these IPOs. Do you understand what that means?