Politics? It's all just storytelling.
Joined July 2024
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Mar 13
Media: "Trump thought 4-5 weeks meant 2-3 days and now he's panicking. He wants nothing more than for the fighting to stop. He's desperate for an off-ramp where he doesn't look weak."
Trump: "IT IS MY GREAT HONOR—AS YOUR PRESIDENT—TO KILL THESE DERANGED SCUMBAGS IN IRAN!"
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That Pereira left hook did permanent damage 💀
hes gonna end up getting fuckin sued. what a moron lol
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He's just trying to get attention lol
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Let’s discuss this twink, Sean Strickland’s, last week: ⬇️
1) Claimed multiple times President Trump is a pedo.
2) Claims he was BANNED from UFC 250 and Bibi is going to be there instead. (Zero indication or proof of either.)
3) Says Trump doesn’t even know he’s been “banned” and it’s Kash’s fault now.
4) Dana White says he’s NOT banned but most of the super limited tickets went to Military and Sean just didn’t make the private invite list.
(Why would Trump or Dana invite this lying fraud?)
5) Strickland comes out and admits yeah I wasn’t actually banned.
6) Says he really DOESN’T think Trump is a pedo in X post.
7) Show up to Press Conference last night shouting once again “I was banned! Trumps’ a pedo!”
Someone commit this guy. He’s been hit too many times and needs his head checked. He’s unwell. 🙄
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Yup.
Iran deal won't be permanent. Everyone is trying to buy time to get back to war again..
Iran will try to build a nuke.
US and GCC will have shunts/pipelines, and ramp up production elsewhere (Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Guyana...)
Islamic Regime will fall.
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I've said this before myself so don't take this as me calling you wrong. You're right.
But. The IRGC funding these protests is probably why revolution exists.
Almost everyone "protesting" there is associated with the IRGC or the Artesh and they are personally assigned to kill any counterprotest that might emerge.
It just makes too much sense, tactically.
Iranian opposition doens't exist. It's all BS. They were supposed to revolt? Yeah sure. Only thing they do: American/European Iranians are now sending American soldiers to earn Iranians' freedom. What a joke.
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QUICK, QUICK, IRAN SIGN
I LOVE MOUS NOW!
I'm telling you, whoever signs that agreement will be tarred and feathered (at best!) if they don't flee Iran!
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Me and IRGC sponsored mobs have something in common!
lol they were calling him a dishonorable spy and basically calling for his death. It was a little more than “resign”.
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Where I ought to give Trump more leeway than I usually do?
The ideologically anti-war crowd glommed onto him very early.
Why they did that? I'm not sure. Ge disowned Iraq and Afghanistan on tactical grounds.
He is decidedly NOT anti-war.
But because he has a political reputation to try and maintain, he has to do and say things that I believe are stupid. Because the message isn't for me.
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Okay, you know what, if the IRGC feeds Ghalibaf and Araghchi to the wolves during an MOU?
I might suddenly become an MOU supporter.
That sounds hilarious—in a ghoulish sort of way.
Protests tonight among hardline #Iran regime supporters calling for the resignations of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, accusing them of giving too many concessions.
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I think there's such a thing as too plugged in, which the White House is seemingly suffering from.
They get every piece of potential palace gossip from Iran right now, and I don't think anyone is stopping to ask how much of it actually changes the bigger picture.
So instead, they react to every intel report violently. And then create headlines with their reactions. Which people then choose to believe.
Most everyone needs to take a step back and examine the forest instead of dissecting the trees.
Even I do at times.
This isn’t directed at you just my general philosophy: Diplomacy/conflicts weren’t meant to be micromanaged hour by hour by critics in the stands. One can blame comms from the White House but at the end of the day it’s up to the individual if they want to react to every headline. Complex situations require complex solutions and nobody on this website is read into the information that those at the top are. Just my 2 cents
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I think you thought their premise through more than they did.
They just want the IRGC dead. I sympathize entirely. But I don't deal on that kind of emotional level.
Pragmatically speaking? We still need to kill them. But because that's true? We're gonna get there one way or the other.
It just depends how much of a circuitous route we take.
The hawks' premise was that if we applied pressure, the people would overthrow the regime. This was based on the January protests. Everything that follows is from this premise turning out to be untrue.
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You're right, but it is a bit larger than that.
Yes, the administration should start preparing the public for the war they started rather than selling fairy farts and snake oil in the form of a "deal with Iran" that creates "peace in the middle east"
But Iran hawks should take inventory of themselves, too.
The administration has laid out their red lines on an actual deal ten thousand times. If you honestly believe they're just lying and will ultimately settle for the opposite of all that? You're an idiot.
They started a war over this. TWICE. In less than two years.
The President is largely to blame for the sentiment you are decrying. I agree with most of your conclusions but the problem is this administration incredibly poor public communication to a large degree. Other than Rubio whose messaging has been spot on.
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Here's something I find confusing about the deal as it has been laid out.
The first step requires the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war traffic levels.
But why would it ever? Venezuela just took some of its business. A sizable chunk, I'd imagine. And it'll only take more as time goes on.
Because nobody is going to stop the planned alterations to their supply chains just over the US and Iran talking about talking for 2 months.
Isn't the whole concept a poison pill?
Venezuela's crude exports just hit 1,300,000 barrels per day.
The Hormuz crisis made this possible.
January 2026: exports collapsed to 450 kbd as the Iran war broke out.
June 2026: exports surged to 1,300 kbd nearly tripling in 6 months.
💰3 buyers drove the surge:
🇺🇸 US: the dominant buyer. Gulf Coast refiners need heavy crude to replace lost Middle East supply. Venezuela has it.
🇮🇳 India: barely present in 2025. Now a major buyer — hunting every non-Gulf heavy barrel available.
🇨🇳China: stepped in when US buying dipped, now sharing the market.
The logic is simple.
Iranian heavy crude is off the market.
Middle East sour grades can't transit Hormuz.
US and Asian refiners built for heavy feedstock need replacement barrels urgently.
Venezuela has 1.3 mb/d of heavy crude, Atlantic access, and no Hormuz exposure.
A year ago this was a sanctions story.
Today it's a supply security story.
The Hormuz crisis didn't just disrupt the Middle East.
It rehabilitated Venezuela as a strategic supplier to 3 of the world's largest oil buyers simultaneously.
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I find it to be absolutely confounding how Iran hawks think about this deal.
On one hand, they believe that the IRGC is a host of psychopaths with a religious zeal for bloodshed that is impossible to reason with.
And yet, on the other hand, they believe that a deal that gives Iran everything they've ever wanted. That Iran will make a deal that gives them everything—that the USA will just simply give them everything—in exchange for nothing?
I abhor the idea of a Memorandum of Understanding. I think it's a flatly ridiculous concept that defeats itself. It is self-assailing logic.
Iran is going to make the deal that we've quixotically hoped they would make for over 10 years now. But instead of making the deal? They need to... make a Memorandum of Understanding that will create the structure to negotiate the deal. And this Memorandum will take months to finalize with dozens of false starts along the way.
But someway, somehow, we are going to get past all of that and end up with Iran making a deal.
I am flummoxed by the idea anew every time I review it in my head.
And yet, I say all of this so that I can make it abundantly clear...
There is no deal.
So why is everyone panicking about a deal?
I'm miffed by the entire situation because I think it's patently ridiculous to start a war for a month, engage in a blockade for 2 months, and then just... hit the pause button for 2 months after that?
Nobody will make any sense of that for me.
But at the end of the day, is that some catastrophic outcome that warrants the hyperventilating you see in this post?
You think a deal won't resolve the nuclear issue? Great. Neither do I.
So lament this nonsense as the waste of time it's all-but-guaranteed to be. I'm all for it.
What I can't get behind is pretending that the whole thing is more than it is.
Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:
1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."
2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."
3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.
4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."
5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."
6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."
Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
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Derek. 🇺🇸 retweeted
We got a BALD EAGLE at the UFC White House ceremonial weigh ins
WTF is going on 😭
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Derek. 🇺🇸 retweeted
First time he’s ever been called for carrying
NBA Star James Harden Arrested, Charged with Carrying Unlawful Weapons bit.ly/4vO0dZr
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Great post detailing a downright bizarre standoff.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
— Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)
— A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused.
— In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.”
— In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety.
— In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community.
— The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority.
— Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Derek. 🇺🇸 retweeted
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
— Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)
— A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused.
— In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.”
— In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety.
— In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community.
— The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority.
— Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Can't tell if this post is more pro-trillionaire or more pro-white supremacy
Jun 13
Fact: 100% of trillionaires are white supremacists
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Trump might know it. But ultimately, the person running this show in the IRGC doesn't need the US to believe Mojtaba is still alive.
They're using Mojtaba to give their rule domestic legitimacy.
That’s a nonsense with all the respect, if we managed to get to both the supreme leaders, go obviously can manage to infiltrate them now, khamenei is not alive and Trump knows it, he’s just giving time to the faction willing to negotiate to put the shit in order and take care…
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It's in the middle. The IRGC knows what they're doing. And what they're doing is pretty dumb nevertheless.
In the wake of the strikes that took out Khamenei, someone in the IRGC was smart enough to create a fake Mojtaba. A survivor who's calling the shots.
This IRGC member is the only one who speaks to "Mojtaba," making him the effective Supreme Leader of Iran.
Our IRGC unsub then assembled a negotiations team of loyalists who pretend to the Americans to be real negotiatiors.
Their goal is to trick the Americans into signing over control of the Strait of Hormuz while preserving their supply of uranium.
That's the point of the MOU. Their plan is to push through this MOU and get the blockade lifted, pretend the Strait is open while the blockade recedes, then pull the rug as soon as they get some breathing room.
All the while, they will negotiate about negotiating and never agree to anything vis a vis nuclear weapons other than their tried and true line: "We don't want nuclear weapons! But no you can't have our highly enriched uranium or stop us from making more."
Now, it's devious in its way. But its still stupid.
A point @MAGAJayCutler made separately? This guy, while clearly pretty clever, can't run a country. Nobody over there can.
We actually already created the power vaccuum everyone is so afraid of. It's here.
And now the warlord is in control.
And even on its own merits, the plan does nothing but force the USA to ultimately stop pulling their punches.
But to your point. These people aren't exactly geniuses.
Everyone is here pretending Iranians suddenly got an IQ of 160 and are playing us like we were idiots, that’s not fucking happening
What is happening is even worse: they can’t get their shit together after we really fucked them up
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