🌹 Kentucky Derby 2026 🌹
Complete Analysis
Key
*^ = could be dynamic (more forward on the pace)
Pace Setters: 4, 14, 17, 18
Off Pace: 2*, 3, 6, 7, 8*^, 9*, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16*^
Closers: 1, 5, 13, 19, 20
#1 Renegade – A horse I was very keen on early. Very talented and visually impressive, but the figures need a little work. In my opinion, too light for a potential favorite. Distance should be no issue, but traffic will be. I don’t hate the 1 post as much as others—2, 3, 4 should break quicker and give him a slot. Still, a lot to navigate. 4-1 or under is not for me.
#2 Albus – Not in love with this one. Too many talented horses here. Would be a shock, though I like the versatility shown last out. Figures are light—needs a massive step forward.
#3 Intrepido – Interesting last work (45). Not a fan of that heater he ran. Likely more forward here. Distance (10F) looks like a stretch. Needs a big jump in figures.
#4 Litmus Test – Even tossing the last race, still leaves more to be desired. Experience is a plus, early speed too—but unlikely he gets loose. Looking elsewhere.
#5 Right to Party – Not a fan. If this were 3 miles, maybe. Needs a total pace meltdown to have a chance.
#6 Commandment – Loved this horse early and still can’t knock him. Has done nothing wrong. Would like to see more separation than these close wins, but still top tier. You can’t leave him off. Slight regression is possible, but overall very positive.
#7 Dan Bourbon – Do we go back to this angle? Japan has been pushing hard for the Derby. This one is KY-bred, set a record time last out (25 years). I like the look and running style. One to include underneath.
#8 So Happy – Runhappy hasn’t impressed overall, but this horse can get the distance. Has done nothing wrong. Likely sitting just off a hot pace—Mike Smith should have him in a good stalking spot. Include.
#9 The Puma – Want to love this one. Castellano’s Derby record isn’t great (Mage was his first win). Has faced Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment already. Familiar company. At 10–15-1 , worth strong consideration.
#10 Wonder Dean – UAE form has been underwhelming historically in the Derby. Some have been compromised by insane paces. Could be improving and has tactical speed. Tread lightly, but don’t be shocked if he shows up somewhere.
#11 Incredibolt – Not impressed. If he beats me, so be it—I won’t be using him. Needs serious improvement and hasn’t faced strong class.
#12 Chief Wallabee – I’ve bet him three times and wanted more each time. Blinkers on (first-time Derby) isn’t ideal. Same connections as last year’s winner. I might get burned, but I’ll say it—I think he can outperform Commandment and The Puma. Lightly raced with questions, but I’m taking a stand. Must include.
#13 Silent Tactic – Maybe unpopular, but I’m a fan. Six starts, nothing wrong. Big price, strong closer. Needs better figs, but I expect improvement.
#14 Potente – Has done little wrong. Not huge on recent Cali shippers, but forward placement is a plus in the Derby. Didn’t race at 2—big red flag.
#15 Emerging Market – Prat is always dangerous in Triple Crown races. Only two starts and didn’t race at 2—major question marks. Tough ask. Hard to see top 3.
#16 Pavlovian – Essentially proved the distance last out with a top figure. Improving every start. Most experienced in the field (10 starts). Likely more forward—could absolutely hit underneath.
#17 Six Speed – Probably like him more than I should. Strong pedigree, handled big fields, some dominant wins. The 17 post has never won—big hurdle. Still using underneath.
#18 Further Ado – Not much to say. When he shows up, he’s elite. Feels like a Fierceness type—massive talent. Win contender. Question is which version shows up.
#19 Golden Tempo – Improving every start, but figs still light. Deep closer who needs a pace collapse. Some sharp works suggest progress. Underneath use at best.
#20 Fulleffort – 7 starts, never tried dirt—big concern. Jeff Ruby horses have run well lately. Brad Cox knows how to handle surface switches. Distance is fine, could be more forward with a clean break. I can see a big race here.