Almost dying then hitting Bear Flag Fish Co >

$SRAD this trade I was a bit early to (and am currently slightly underwater), but my commons are back up around my cost basis. Have done more work and still like it.

This is big. Currently I see ~6.18B USDC on $HYPE (defillama.com/stablecoins/hy…), which at ~3.5% and 90% split is an extra $195mm annual funneled to buybacks

How is $NASA up over 1% in AH even though most components are down ~2% ? Just shorted 4k @ 36.35ish

Flavor of the month trade will be long $ARKG / short $NASA

Excited to see how close this is to $PURR update tomorrow - last week there was a pretty big reaction to the outsized purchase. Going to backtest a few things tn

While the ETF flows for hyperliquid:native have been impressive, the majority of the bid has come from $PURR Using our proprietary onchain analysis we estimate that they have purchased an additional 1,353,356 HYPE this week Their total market impact is roughly 2x all spot ETFs

SPAC lockup game has been so so good this year. $BRUN, $INFQ, $XNDU. Love how rules are relatively consistent but every time people are like “oh shit”

Haralabob dunking on Kalish is the type of entertainment I need today

I spent the last 5 years asking 400 people a single question. It changed how I think about generating an edge in trading. The question: Name a president that you don't think other people will name, keeping in mind that other people are also trying to name a president that others won't name. Take a moment to answer before reading on. The results map directly onto how I think about alpha. Bucket the 45 presidents into 6 tiers by name recognition with Tier 1 being the most famous and Tier 6 the most obscure. The results show a clear bias toward obscurity—selections rise steadily from Tier 2 through Tier 6—with a sharp reverse-psychology spike back up at Tier 1. People favor going obscure ("Who would think of Millard Fillmore?") but many deploy maximum reverse psychology ("Washington is too obvious. Nobody will say him"). In reality, Washington and Fillmore are the two most common answers. [sorry, @dumborambo_, it is true] The sweet spot is Tier 2: Clinton, JFK, Jefferson, both Bushes, Nixon, LBJ. Household names, but not top-of-mindnames. Out of 407 respondents, only 20 picked from this group. That is 16% of presidents, under 5% of selections. Most people are genuinely shocked to learn these are the best answers. [Maybe except for @Rigatohni, who picked the last unnamed president (George W. Bush)]. This is how I approach every market I've traded. Sports betting, options, commodities, prediction markets. Tier 1 alpha ("Google has the best search engine," "Nvidia makes the chips") is real but saturated. The edge is gone before you arrive. Tier 6 alpha (tracking flight delays to beat sportsbooks, exotic statistical arbitrage) sounds clever but is almost always fruitless for the same reason: everyone who thinks they're being original is being original in the same direction. Tier 2 alpha is the sweet spot. It is never complicated and does not require a Harvard PhD, but it is also never obvious enough that the crowd has caught on. The smartest people I know have failed in trading because they couldn't believe Tier 2 alpha existed. Anything approachable, they assumed, had already been found by someone smarter. When I showed them edges that were statistically irrefutable, they called me a blind squirrel. I used to half-believe them. But the more edges I find, the more the pattern holds. The best alpha is Tier 2. Once you see it, you'll wonder why you didn't see it sooner.

Yep wait till their data center build out 🔥🔥🔥 heavy capex

For anyone questioning if these guys have a legitimate energy business -- they are already in process of nuking their investors. So there's that.

Flour Corp sold their final $160M stake in NuScale Power $SMR

Amazing

$ASTS Seen a lot of overreactions in both directions. When the booster landed, saw some scaling for 25% increase (hilarious). Now seeing others calling for similar decreases. I don’t put a \- 10% move out of the question, but this will normalize much faster than these takes.