Wall Street and ASX investor. Chasing the elusive 10x. TECH 🎱 Coreweave, SMCI, FL1.,GLN WR1, ALB
Joined September 2021
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19 Jan 2025
There’s not many guarantees in life……..❤️❤️❤️ one guarantee is that there’s a clean energy transition and in that transition record amounts of lithium is required, it’s will be underestimated like all disruptive environments😎😎take a position and watch it fly in the next 5 yrs
18 Jan 2025
Coal India looks to Argentina for lithium brine assets, critical minerals
Tags: #Argentina #CoalIndia #lithium #mining
Read more:
argentinareport.com/coal-ind…
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The war is OVER.....🎉🎉🥳🥳
Show us those big green candles in all stocks!!!⬆️⬆️⬆️
Six months of suppression, finally we are free!💪💪
Show us the money in Lithium and Ai stocks....💰💰💰
#lithium #nomorewar #ai #auspol #ausbiz
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If the defict it much larger than 2022 year on year, how doesnt the price surpass 80 high of last cycle or 100k???🤯🤯🤯
Please explain......🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
@usuallyYJLee #ausbiz #lithium #auspol @globallithium
I've been getting questions on the #lithium price pullback and market balance.. so here are some broad thoughts and analyses:
Demand:
- Iran war is massively stimulating switch to EVs. EV sales 90-160% in many countries YoY Apr 2026. Last year's headlines were doom & gloom about "slowing EV sales". In reality, BEVs PHEVs were 20.7m units, pretty healthy. This year I forecast a re-acceleration in EV sales - lithium use 210kt LCE YoY.
- BESS growth is pretty insane. Last year installations/shipments were ~320/500GWh. This year it's looking like ~500/850GWh. FYI 850GWh --> ~600kt LCE used in those cells so this segment alone might consume 30% of lithium supply this year.
- E-Trucks: Grew 180% (!!) YoY in China last year. More broadly, the Class 4-8 segment represented 5% (86kt LCE) of lithium supply last year and it's just starting to go up the steep part of the S-curve globally. If your analyst doesn't have this in his model, he's missing 150kt LCE use this year.
- Overall, global lithium demand grows from 1.5Mt last year to 2.0Mt in 2026, a 500kt LCE jump.
Supply:
- Mine restarts: To this year's supply, Bald Hill adds 8kt LCE. Ngungajoo adds 10kt. Finniss adds 10kt. Small-ish vs the demand growth.
- Mt Holland "doubling capacity": Won't happen until 2028.
- CATL Jianxiawo mine: Even if it turned on today, it'd produce only 30kt this year. Less considering ramp-up. And there's a cow or two to relocate if recent videos are to be believed. 😉
- Supply growth has been severely constrained in the last two years as companies could not get financing, or built slower. This WILL be felt in 2026 and 2027.
Market Balance:
- I see a deficit this year growing to 2030. Much of this is based off BESS growth to 1.76TWh ( 17% from my prev forecast) as countries realize they want to reduce natural gas imports dependence. I'm also pounding the table on E-Trucks here. Watch this space.
- I respect Benchmark's gutsy call for a 2027 surplus. I disagree though. They have been pretty conservative on demand forecasts and I think this year will surprise many analysts.
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No one can answer this? As to me a larger deficit means higher pricing.....
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Thanks Joe for the update.....💥💥💥
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The Yoda of Lithium sector has spoken with facts.......💪💪💪
Price inbound to 40k by end of year as forecated by ganfeng and other major players...💰💰💰🛤️🛤️🛤️
Hold tight the winter has finished, blocking the noise all aboard....🚉🚉🚉🚞🚞🚞
#benchmark #auspol #lithium #
I've been getting questions on the #lithium price pullback and market balance.. so here are some broad thoughts and analyses:
Demand:
- Iran war is massively stimulating switch to EVs. EV sales 90-160% in many countries YoY Apr 2026. Last year's headlines were doom & gloom about "slowing EV sales". In reality, BEVs PHEVs were 20.7m units, pretty healthy. This year I forecast a re-acceleration in EV sales - lithium use 210kt LCE YoY.
- BESS growth is pretty insane. Last year installations/shipments were ~320/500GWh. This year it's looking like ~500/850GWh. FYI 850GWh --> ~600kt LCE used in those cells so this segment alone might consume 30% of lithium supply this year.
- E-Trucks: Grew 180% (!!) YoY in China last year. More broadly, the Class 4-8 segment represented 5% (86kt LCE) of lithium supply last year and it's just starting to go up the steep part of the S-curve globally. If your analyst doesn't have this in his model, he's missing 150kt LCE use this year.
- Overall, global lithium demand grows from 1.5Mt last year to 2.0Mt in 2026, a 500kt LCE jump.
Supply:
- Mine restarts: To this year's supply, Bald Hill adds 8kt LCE. Ngungajoo adds 10kt. Finniss adds 10kt. Small-ish vs the demand growth.
- Mt Holland "doubling capacity": Won't happen until 2028.
- CATL Jianxiawo mine: Even if it turned on today, it'd produce only 30kt this year. Less considering ramp-up. And there's a cow or two to relocate if recent videos are to be believed. 😉
- Supply growth has been severely constrained in the last two years as companies could not get financing, or built slower. This WILL be felt in 2026 and 2027.
Market Balance:
- I see a deficit this year growing to 2030. Much of this is based off BESS growth to 1.76TWh ( 17% from my prev forecast) as countries realize they want to reduce natural gas imports dependence. I'm also pounding the table on E-Trucks here. Watch this space.
- I respect Benchmark's gutsy call for a 2027 surplus. I disagree though. They have been pretty conservative on demand forecasts and I think this year will surprise many analysts.
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Will the ASX follow today??🧐🧐
US stocks were flat....😫😫😫
Will the futures and spot rise today??🤷♂️🤷♂️
Next leg cant come quick enough, most stocks are now in deep oversold territory on the RSI.....💥💥💥
#auspol #Ausbiz #lithium
Chinese #lithiumstocks surge today, while correction of ASX peers goes on.
Near-term lithium futures increased by 2.8%-3.2% today amid flat spot prices.
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Always a good watch......💥💥💥
Keep up the good work lads, always keeping all opinions in the loop, 🤯🤯benchmark still calling surplus and down side to lithium price.....🤷♂️🤷♂️🧐🧐
#lithium #auspol #ausbiz
China inventories are moving. So is the lithium debate
@zempheth argues the market may still be tighter than the restart headlines suggest
• China inventory noise
• DLE execution risk
• Quebec hard rock
• Vulcan, Q2 and project quality
• Restarts, delays, cycle timing
📺: youtu.be/9P1NTz2oUXw
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Benchmark says no surplus of Lithium.....🤷♂️🤷♂️
What do they know that most are calling deficit?? 🤯🤯🤯
#auspol #ausbiz #lithium
Benchmark’s “bearish” call is more nuanced than the headline.
@benchmarkmin's Bryan Bille on Giga US '26, defense demand and supply chain de-risking. While Cameron Perks sees demand firm, supply slower than hype, and no crash even if 2027 cools.
📺: youtu.be/gv7jVD1jFWs
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Over the years, the back half of the year beginning in July and accelerating through to the back end of the year is usually the peak times for Pricing ending @chinese new year.....🧐🧐
Next leg imminent 💥💥💥
Everything pointing to Deficits in 2026...💪💪💪
#lithium #auspol #ausbiz
Jun 4
What's happening to lithium? After seeming to break out of its trading range in early-May GFEX lithium carbonate then broke down again and is now back within the early-2026 trading range. I would suggest that next key support is around the Rmb140,000/t (US$20.6/kg) level. But note that there is some seasonality in lithium pricing and it wouldn't be atypical if prices drifted off during the NH summer. Late-July/early-August is a time when we generally see prices recovering. At least we did in 2021, 2022 and 2025.
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