如果你听进了我在三月底大喊科技股太便宜了，并且拿到现在，恭喜大家，这是我们应得的。今天的收盘FORWARD P/E来到了29，上年10月份我开始喊降BETA时是30，我们很接近了。我认为从30以上再次开始降BETA是合理的，也就是再往上3%的距离，无需太讲究点位，因为30不一定就是个顶，情绪面顶部无需预测。 我认为资金会轮动出去，去价值股，去小盘股，垃圾股。就像很多人觉得今年1月份错过了行情一样，指数涨0.9%，垃圾满天飞。 我不是要鼓励你们去碰垃圾股，反正我不会买，但我会准备根据情况调整仓位了。

币圈彻底爆炸了，整个币圈都被割了。 一堆交易所拿了 SpaceX IPO 的额度打算卖给币圈人，大半个币圈人都掏钱参与打新了，现在打完了，告诉你没额度，退款还要给几百刀的手续费。 最惨的是，有人看到 $SPCX 盘前合约涨了很多，先通过做空来套保，锁定利润，结果套保的空单浮亏了，IPO 的股票现货还拿不到。 币圈炒作了几年的 RWA 币股叙事，经此一战，以后谁还敢玩 😭

大师就是大师 多空都做，跌了就晒空单，涨了就晒多单

结合甲骨文财报后的大跌和今天Adobe的大跌，微软的持续走弱，桃总能聊一下现在的IGV板块以及几个应用软件权重股未来的走势吗？你是如何看待非网络安全板块的软件股的未来的？

Q1 earnings season is just about done, and this Q has been great for software. Looking at the YoY growth in quarterly net new ARR added, this was the best quarter (by a long shot) in last ~5 years

Citadel Securities just put institutional weight behind what the AI bulls won't say out loud. In a new macro note titled "Tokenomics," Citadel makes the argument plainly: even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns. The evidence is piling up: – Amazon removed its token usage leaderboard – Microsoft cancelled Claude Code subscriptions – Multiple companies reporting unexpectedly massive token bills Their conclusion is the part that matters. Adoption is no longer about what AI can do in principle. It's becoming about the price and scarcity of the inputs needed to run it at scale. Compute. Power. Cooling. Memory bandwidth. Inference budgets. All real, all binding constraints. And here's the kicker from the chart. The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, a benchmark for how much the market is actually spending on AI tokens, has started rolling over. Citadel reads it as a shift toward cheaper models. Companies substituting away from expensive frontier AI toward "good enough" alternatives. That's economics 101 doing what it always does. When the price of something rises, people use less of it, or find a cheaper version. Citadel sees a bifurcation forming. Frontier AI concentrated among a few firms with the balance sheets to absorb the cost. Everyone else quietly downgrading to simpler, cheaper models. This is the part of every technology revolution the early narrative ignores. The technology being real was never the question. The question was always whether the economics could carry the valuations. When one of the most sophisticated trading firms on earth starts writing about AI in the language of cost curves and rationing instead of limitless demand, the conversation has quietly changed. The hype was about what AI could do. The reckoning is about what it costs.

一颗雷算是排掉了。可能只算是半颗吧。毕竟没有更多更大的惊喜。期指原地起飞。

核心环比低于预期，其他都符合预期 CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.5% CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI 4.2% YoY, Exp. 4.2% CPI Core 2.9% YoY, Exp.2.9%

🍑总快出现 崩盘了