Altimeter Partner working with software businesses at the earliest stages of product market fit. Dad to 4 amazing kids. No investment advice, all views personal
Joined September 2015
- Tweets 6,438
- Following 1,427
- Followers 90,235
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1,254 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
18 Jun 2020
I'm launching a newsletter! If you'd like to stay in tune with valuations / trends driving public SaaS businesses please follow along! I'll also provide detailed earnings summaries. More to come-Looking forward to all of your feedback on Clouded Judgement
cloudedjudgement.substack.co…
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There are certainly a lot of 10x engineers at @inferact!
DAY 0 ALERT: @MiniMax_AI M3 is now available on HuggingFace & has been added to InferenceX. The M3 architecture has ~428B parameters and ~23B activated parameters. Due to the 10x engineers from @inferact, M3 is already delivering pretty well-optimized performance on @NVIDIAAI B300 Blackwell Ultra on Day 0 @vllm_project! Furthermore, Inferact released their EAGLE3 heads, which enable even greater performance.
Looking forward to Day 1, 2, and 3 performance & the team is grinding on benchmarking Day 0 MI355X performance on InferenceX too.
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Jamin Ball retweeted
Jun 12
Legend. Thank you @Gwynne_Shotwell from a grateful nation. Your unrelenting drive to put America back on top in space will never be forgotten! 🇺🇸🚀
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Jamin Ball retweeted
Jun 11
K2 Space has been confirmed as a satellite bus provider for the @USSpaceForce Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global (PTS-G) initiative, which will launch to GEO in 2028. This announcement is a milestone for K2 as our first participation in a Pentagon program of record.
Under the award announced by @USSF_SSC earlier this week, K2 will supply a satellite to our partners at @SESSpaceDefense, one of two primes on the contract. K2’s large, resilient satellites are built with the power and mass to deploy the anti-jam capabilities and consistent communications that the PTS-G constellation requires.
Read more here: spacenews.com/k2-space-rocke…
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Jun 10
Q1 earnings season is just about done, and this Q has been great for software. Looking at the YoY growth in quarterly net new ARR added, this was the best quarter (by a long shot) in last ~5 years
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This chart uses a basket of ~50 public companies who report ARR or subscription rev. Not an exhaustive list, but a representative ones
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Jun 10
Another call out. while the aggregate net new ARR was high, 17% of the companies saw ARR shrink QoQ (so they added negative net new ARR). This was the second highest percent of companies who shrunk QoQ in last 5 years
TLDR - aggregate was great, but very high dispersion!
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Jamin Ball retweeted
Jun 8
A bit different from what I usually post here. 🌻 My wife wrote a children's book Sunflower and the Superpower, a story about self-compassion, inner strength, and the unique gifts inside every kid. Ages 3–7. Couldn't be prouder of her.
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Jun 5
Different types of GPUs!
Anthropic using from Colossus 1 and Colossus 2. Roughly 325k total, split into
~150k H100s
~50k H200s
~125k GB200s
Google likely only using Colossus 2, all 110k being GB200s
More recent hardware costs more!
Jun 5
On headline numbers, Google is paying about 2.2x the rate per GPU that Anthropic is paying for SpaceX's capacity.
2.2x.
Is there a good explanation for this? Is the underlying hardware very different.
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The infrastructure build out could be the largest infra buildout ever
x.com/jaminball/status/20578…
you're telling me anthropic & google are paying spacex ~$26b a year for compute?!!
this is more than half the run rate of openai & anthropic just from compute deals & that doesn't even factor in the rocket launches at all.
elon accidentally ended up owning a significant portion of three of the scarcest assets in ai.. power, chips, & physical deployment capability. the best lesson here is that if you’re selling picks & shovels during a gold rush, you don’t necessarily need to find the gold. you just need everyone else to keep digging. & also non software elon is pretty much unstoppable, like prime michael jordan type thing.
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So many fun memories playing Mafia growing up!
Although we called it Werewolf. Does that make me lame @micsolana?
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BTW - Jensen said this week the cost to develop 1GW may rise to $80-$100b
In this article I talked about the cost to develop 1GW being closer to $50b, and an industry that could add 150gw over next ~5 years (if you take OpenAIs plans at face value and extrapolate to broader market). These figures would represent ~$7.5T of spend over next 5 years, or ~5% of annual GDP. Significant, but still lower than the railroad buildout in the late 1800's (which was ~6% of annual GDP)
IF the cost per GW rises from $50b to $80-$100b, and we develop as much as I imagine there will be demand for, we'd be talking about an infrastructure project that pushes ~10% spend of annual GDP...truly unprecedented
Now of course SO many reasons this won't happen... physical labor limits, credit limits, the many supply chain bottlenecks, power, etc
Which highlights another important point - so much of GDP growth is predicated on this ai datacenter build. Shut it down with a data center moratoriums and we could see some massive impacts on the economy...
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Google raising tens of billions to fun the AI buildout. I laid out in the article below how the AI buildout could hit 5% of GDP. Generational opportunity!
From the Google press release:
AI is driving an expansionary moment for Alphabet. The company is experiencing strong demand for its AI solutions and services from enterprises and consumers, at levels that are exceeding the company’s available supply
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Jun 1
We now know the SpaceX / Anthropic deal was for 325k GPUs! Have to make some assumptions on the mix shift of type of GPUs, but this probably translates to ~450mw
This translates to ~$33m / MW / Year. About 3x "market rate" but this feels like a short term "surge pricing" deal
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Jamin Ball retweeted
May 30
A small group of activists shut down clean nuclear power - and now they are trying to do the same to data centers. It would plunge the country into a recession, high unemployment & risk our national security to China. 🇺🇸
"Lest we be overconfident in Silicon Valley, let's remember a small group of activists shut down supersonic technology, and all nuclear energy in this country. It's a disaster."
@altcap explains why a data center moratorium would be "horrific" for America:
"All of our GDP growth is coming from the fact that we are building data centers and driving productivity improvements in the economy."
"A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment."
"Secondly, it would cede the entire global game to China. Overnight, we would lose to China in the global AI race. Which is not just about AI, it's about economic security, jobs, and national security."
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