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Babak ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ @TN

Whatever the opposite of 'laser eyes' is...

Joined March 2007
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S&P 500's June 2021 peak PE at 30.8 (99th %tile, below Dec 1999's 35.8 an all time record which would put $SPX 5000) such high #valuation corresponds to poor long term returns - a slightly negative 10 year annualized total return! chart via @LeutholdGroup
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ICYMI: Ray Dalio gives a quick overview of his judgement re current #valuation and whether we are in a stock market bubble: youtu.be/X2ag_mfUgBU

Is the stock market in a bubble? | Ray Dalio | June 2021

I support the Robin Hood Foundation which works on poverty alleviat...

youtube.com
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Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently spoke with @johnauthers on the same topic with less equivocation: "The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market" bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ

Bubble Expert Grantham Addresses โ€˜Epicโ€™ Stock Euphoria

Itโ€™s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, and investors are wondering if another one is on the way. With economic momentum slowing as the effects of fiscal stimulus wear off, itโ€™s...

bloomberg.com
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NFIB small business #sentiment 99.6 - notice the response regarding expectations of the economy improving in the lower panel
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ICYMI: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie on the #inflation vs #deflation debate & his recommendation of long 30 year Treasury bond, potential 25% return over 1 year youtu.be/cI1TyZF9KA4

Inflation Is Temporary: Bullishness on the Economy & Markets Is Wrong...

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized i...

youtube.com
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Cleveland Fed #Inflation Expectations Model (1-5 years)
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"The Cleveland Fed modelโ€™s r-squared [based on monthly data back to 2003] was highest at 23%, followed by the University of Michigan consumer survey at 20%, and the five-year breakeven inflation rate at 0%." marketwatch.com/story/is-infโ€ฆ
#Bitcoin, devoid of any fundamentals & inherent value, is as pure a manifestation of the aggregate financial id as we'll ever encounter: chart of Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite metric compared to the price of Bitcoin (YoY).
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GMO cautions re #valuation by comparing EPS vs prices for 1990's market and today's EPS forecasts are 2-year forecasts. In the first chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 11.1%; in the second chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%.
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NDR Daily Trading Sentiment 67.8% NDR Crowd #Sentiment Poll 71.5% Both are above extreme optimism demarcation lines with negative 1 year fwd expected returns.
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Investors Intelligence weekly #sentiment survey of newsletters shows little change: bulls 54.5% (up by almost 0.9% pts from last wk) bears 16.2% (slight decline of 0.3% pts) correction 29.3% chart via @WillieDelwiche
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โ€œWhenever there is an immediate drawdown in equities, retail comes in immediately to buy the dip. People default to ETFs as a way to buy the dip. And recently retail has been buying more ETFs than any other segment of the equity population.โ€ ft.com/content/796b4c18-dcf4โ€ฆ
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TD Ameritrade's IMX (proprietary metric of client activity) at highest level since late 2017. #sentiment
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A somewhat similar picture via @sentimentrader using Justin Mamis' #sentiment cycle (featured in his book "The Nature of Risk")
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Goldman Sachs' survey of 25 CIOs shows that #Bitcoin is their least favorite asset class
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This stands in stark contrast to the larger survey conducted by Bank of America ML GFMS (May 2021) where long #Bitcoin was deemed the most crowded trade:
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Below is the list of historical 'most crowded' trade nominees. #Bitcoin lead in January 2021 previous as well as September & December 2017:
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