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As of June 8, 2026, the S&P 500 is near highs, and the Aggregate Signal Model is positive at 0.65.
That matters. The move is not running on price alone.
A rollover in the model would be the warning. Until then, the trend has internal confirmation.
Track it daily and import this data into your own workflow through SentimenTrader's Light Data API: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
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Jun 13
Weekly Market Snapshot (June 8–12, 2026)
Key signals from this week's SentimenTrader research.
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Jun 12
Payroll beats above 87k have a gold aftershock.
Gold was positive 79% of the time six months later after similar beats.
Bonds took the release-day hit. Gold showed up later.
A limited-time offer is coming soon. Stay tuned: sentimentrader.com/pricing
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Jun 12
Gold was part of the liquidation.
The metal is now down 24% from its high. Since 1980, similar drawdowns showed a 70% one-month win rate, but only 30% were higher a year later.
Relief was not repair.
Jun 11
The liquidations last Friday did not spare #gold and #Bitcoin, which now sit together at the bottom of the periodic table.
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Jun 12
Both wholesale and consumer inflation just moved outside their normal ranges.
Since 1922, the S&P 500 rose only 36% of the time during these periods.
A dollar invested only during these periods since 1922 lost 90.8%.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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Jun 12
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-11)
• Smart Money: 0.61
• Dumb Money: 0.62
Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
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Jun 11
Gold miners have been taken out back.
Gold is more than 24% below its three-year high.
99% of GDX miners are in bear markets.
After similar stress since 1993, gold's median return was flat to negative.
The same setup preceded 50% crashes and 50% rallies.
Read full analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing
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Jun 11
Similar setups have leaned higher over time.
When VIX was above 20, its own volatility crossed 120, and SPX was near 52-week highs, 8 of 11 signals were positive across most forward horizons.
The path still got messy.
Jun 10
$VIX pushing over 20 suggests further downside for $SPY. Short-term pullbacks in Oct/Nov 2025 saw a similar move, but $SPX held short-term support. What level does $SPX need to break below to invalidate this as an appropriate analog?
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Jun 11
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-10)
• Smart Money: 0.57
• Dumb Money: 0.61
Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
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Jun 10
VIX vol spikes near highs cut both ways.
In the tight 11-signal sample, 6 of 11 saw a 5% loss within six months.
A rebound edge can still come with a rough path.
A limited-time offer is coming soon. Stay tuned: sentimentrader.com/pricing
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Jun 10
Bonds had a rough day after the jobs report.
When payrolls topped estimates by more than 87k, 10-year Treasury futures rose only 22% of the time.
Median same-day return was a loss of 0.43%.
Read full analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing
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Jun 10
Record put volume is another version of the same message: fear showed up fast.
After similar 1-day VIX spikes, the S&P 500 was higher 77% of the time one month later and 93% one year later.
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Jun 10
That was a panic day.
The VIX jumped 39.7% on June 5.
Since the 1990s, a 252 trading day hold after similar spikes produced 12 trades. 11 were positive. 1 was negative.
Average win was 12.6%. Average loss was 1.4%. Nine to one.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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Jun 10
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-09)
• Smart Money: 0.56
• Dumb Money: 0.59
Dumb Money Confidence is neutral and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
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Jun 10
VIX just broke above 20. VVIX hit a multi-month high.
After similar spikes, the S&P 500 was higher 72% of the time 3 months later.
Median gain over the next year was 12.3%.
The worst 6-month drawdown was 15.1%.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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Healthcare participation just crawled out of a monthlong washout.
On June 4, average participation among S&P 500 healthcare stocks moved back above 30% after at least a month below it.
The prior 13 signals were 13 for 13 one year later. Median $XLV gain was 11.89%.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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The 94-day streak without a 2% decline ended Friday.
Risk appetite fell by more than 25% in just three sessions.
Historically, that has been a warning sign for S&P 500 performance over the following month.
Jun 8
The 94-day streak without a 2% decline in the S&P 500 ended on Friday.
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That was fast.
Risk appetite dropped more than 25% in 3 trading sessions.
After similar breaks, the S&P 500's average 1-month loss was more than 3 times its average gain.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-08)
• Smart Money: 0.51
• Dumb Money: 0.62
Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
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Gold miners had a monster run. Now the funny part.
$GDX rallied over 340% from February 2024 into March 2026, then fell 27% and is testing its 200-day.
A copper/gold extreme just triggered for HUI.
Prior signals had 0% win rates after 2 weeks and 6 months.
Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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