I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change...
At GMI we have done tremendous amounts of work on this all at the nexus of crypto and macro in The Everything Code. It comprised of over 4,000 charts (serious).
However, I am not a guru.
We all need to take lifestyle chips off the table to secure our own future.. I can't dictate that. In RV too we will do our best to help as many people as possible,
But we are not, and will not be, perfect.
This is your choice alone. Not mine.
Only you can actually protect your own future and thus limit regret if the market reverses or even it explodes higher.
I'm guessing I'll take 25% to 30% off into year end but I don't know yet. It's based on my own circumstances, not yours and its based on my p&l and not yours.
Also don't forget that your risk profile is different to mine...
I can afford to take outrageously concentrated risks like having 80% of my liquid stack in Sui.
But based on my work I think Sui it outperforms most others majors. I am not a maximalist and my portfolio can and will change but I will let you know if my analysis changes.
My job for myself is to maximise profits with best risk adjust returns.
For most, just buy BTC, ETH and SOL
My job for myself is to max profits with best risk adjust returns I think are available.
The Banana Zone won't fix your shitty asset allocation. If you have had a decent portfolio you will already be up 5x to 10x from the low.
If you are newer, don't chase gains, time in the market is vital, you should make money this cycle but here is more to play for over time,
You have 5 years or so to Unfuck your Future.
Please don't fuck it up.
This will be my pinned tweet so you can refer to it.
Just let it all play out and take profits on the way.
Good luck.
My work suggests the next 6 to 9 months can change all our lives but don't bet on it exclusively.
If you want to reduce risk and also play for higher prices consider selling some and buying longer dated calls in due course, where you can only lose your premium (as I did in 2021 with ETH and only risked 5% for a potential leg higher which failed).
I appreciate your attention in this matter.