A pleb amongst plebians; just trying to connect the dots I see and accumulate wisdom; defender of the underdog; lastly nothing I post here is financial advice

Joined December 2017
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Aligns with the power law prediction
Feb 22
Might regret posting this. Not doing the whales any favors here, the accumulation clock is ticking. The mathematics behind the next $BTC ATH high break. Coming faster than most see it, the last push before the big collapse of 2029-2030.
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Given the amount of capital being deployed over a multi year timrframe, not hard to imagine a wealth transfer going on from legacy tech to the fab and fabless semicon companies. Breathtaking to see and hard not to want to participate as a shareholder
I’ve been always wondering When would this Memory Boom end? What if it never ends, and MU, SNDK become the next GOOG, MSFT, META? Thanks
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Carlos retweeted
قال أستاذ في علم الأحياء: "بطنك مخزن لفضلات الكورتيزول. تخلص منه بروتين واحد قبل النوم.. وستتغير حياتك." إليكم الحل الذي علمني ايها في 9 دقائق:
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Truly enlightening summary. AI naysayers will be proven wrong
⚡️The AI race is already past the point where most public analysis is useful. Most people are still debating chatbots, job loss, copyright, model benchmarks, or whether AI is “overhyped.” That debate is downstream noise. The actual contest is over who owns scalable cognition before everyone else realizes cognition became infrastructure. A frontier model is a generator of leverage across every domain that depends on reasoning, code, research, persuasion, planning, pattern recognition, coordination, and institutional memory. Once a system can compress expertise and automate parts of judgment, it becomes a meta-asset. It does not compete with one industry. It changes the production function underneath all industries. That is why the window closed so fast. The frontier was never going to stay open. Open windows exist in early technological regimes when the stack is still cheap enough, ambiguous enough, and socially underestimated enough for new entrants to assemble the pieces. Then the stack hardens. Capital requirements rise. Talent consolidates. Feedback loops compound. Infrastructure gets territorial. Regulation enters. Security enters. Incumbents weaponize distribution. Governments discover the strategic layer. That is where AI is now. The frontier is no longer a garage race. It is an empire race. Compute, power, chips, data centers, model talent, security review, government access, cloud distribution, product telemetry, evals, synthetic data, and capital markets now form one integrated machine. A late entrant cannot simply buy GPUs and hire smart people. It has to recreate a living factory while the incumbents are using their own models to improve the factory. The leading labs now have recursive acceleration. Better models help write better code, find better data, generate better evals, improve agents, automate research support, harden cyber defenses, compress workflows, and shorten the next cycle. The advantage is no longer only scale. The advantage is compounding cognition inside the organization. That is why the enterprise loop matters. Companies that only rent intelligence are going to bleed their edge upward. Their workflows, decisions, customer interactions, corrections, and domain patterns become raw material for someone else’s layer. Over time, the firm becomes hollow: still branded, still staffed, still operating, but less differentiated. Its judgment has been extracted, normalized, and resold. The winners build private cognition loops. They turn their internal work into proprietary learning systems. Their human experts become signal generators. Their agents become execution surfaces. Their evals become memory. Their workflow traces become training data. Their corrections become compounding judgment. Their institutional knowledge becomes machine-operable capital. That is the new moat. The same logic applies to nations. Countries that own frontier cognition gain strategic leverage. Countries that rent it become dependent on foreign model policy, export controls, cloud access, censorship rules, security filters, and geopolitical bargaining. They may still “use AI,” but usage is not sovereignty. Renting the nervous system of another civilization does not make a country sovereign. That is the part most governments missed. Europe thought the key move was regulation. The U.S. and China understood, imperfectly but more correctly, that the first move was capacity. Build the labs. Build the compute. Build the clouds. Build the chips. Build the energy layer. Build the talent density. Then regulate from strength. Regulation from weakness becomes permission theater.
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Wow...demand for HBMs "structurally" more predictable now
Jun 13
$MU, SK hynix, Samsung, $TSM TSMC 첨단 패키징 로드맵: GPU당 HBM 용량 변화 CoWoS-S (Silicon Interposer): 현재 양산 중이며, GPU당 8개의 HBM 스택을 지원 CoWoS-L (Local Silicon Bridge): 현재 양산 중이며, GPU당 12개의 HBM 스택을 지원 CoWoS-R (RDL Interposer): 현재 양산 중이며, GPU당 12개의 HBM 스택을 지원 CoPoS (Chip on Panel on Substrate): 2028년 도입 예정이며, GPU당 16개의 HBM 스택을 지원. Next Gen (Super Carrier / Multi Reticle): 2029년 로드맵에 포함되어 있으며, GPU당 최대 24개의 HBM 스택을 지원할 예정 핵심 의미 물리적 한계의 돌파: 과거에는 GPU 칩 하나에 메모리를 붙일 수 있는 공간(캔버스)이 제한되어 있었습니다. 하지만 TSMC는 'CoPoS'같은 차세대 패키징 기술을 통해 이 공간을 물리적으로 넓히는중 이는 본질적으로 전체 HBM 시장의 TAM을 지속적으로 키우는 동력 AI 시대의 메모리 사이클은 이전과 달리 지속적으로 팽창하는 구조적 성장 시장에 더 가까워질 수 있음
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Carlos retweeted
$NVDA is trading near its cheapest valuation in a decade. You’re paying a market multiple for the core compute engine of the entire AI economy powering the largest infrastructure buildout in history.
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Carlos retweeted
This is the shoulder-building mistake almost everyone makes in the gym.
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Carlos retweeted
هل تتوقع أنك تقدر تميز بين عظام الرياضي وغير الرياضي؟ الفرق أوضح مما تتخيل.
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Carlos retweeted
⚡️AI just destroyed the prestige of building. For years, “I built an app” carried status because building was scarce. The technical wall filtered people. Code was the moat. Shipping was proof. A working product meant someone had skill, discipline, and execution capacity. AI blew a hole through that wall. Now the world is about to drown in finished things nobody asked for. Apps. SaaS tools. Chrome extensions. newsletters. agents. dashboards. games. marketplaces. micro-products. side projects. automated businesses. Most will look polished. Most will have landing pages. Most will have onboarding. Most will have pricing pages. Most will have zero pull from reality. That is the new graveyard. The old failure mode was “I have an idea but cannot build it.” The new failure mode is “I built it and nobody cares.” That is psychologically harsher because AI removes the excuse. The builder finally gets the product into the world and discovers the missing piece was never code. The missing piece was demand, distribution, trust, urgency, positioning, and a painful enough problem. This is why “sales and marketing” is directionally right but still incomplete. The real moat is demand ownership. Demand ownership means people already listen to you, trust you, need the thing, feel the pain, sit inside your network, depend on your workflow, or return to your surface area daily. Without that, AI gives you the power to manufacture inventory for an empty store. The next economy rewards the people who own pull. Audience is pull. Trust is pull. Workflow control is pull. Data access is pull. Customer relationships are pull. Brand is pull. Distribution is pull. Taste is pull. Problem intimacy is pull. Code is becoming supply. Pull is becoming power. That is the phase shift. The average engineer is going to hate this because the old technical identity gave them leverage. The market used to need people who could make the thing. Now the market needs people who know which thing should exist, who it is for, why it matters, how to reach them, how to make them believe, and how to get them to return. AI compresses production. It does not create desire. Desire remains scarce. Trust remains scarce. Attention remains scarce. Pain remains scarce. Timing remains scarce. Category creation remains scarce. This also means a lot of “AI founders” are about to learn they were never founders. They were builders. A builder creates artifacts. A founder creates motion in a market. Different game. The winners from here will do the opposite of the Reddit guy. They will find demand first. They will talk to customers first. They will sell before building. They will ship into an existing wound. They will use AI as a speed weapon after the market signal is already alive. The losers will keep spawning apps into silence because building feels productive. It gives dopamine. It gives the illusion of progress. It lets the builder avoid the scarier task: facing the market and asking strangers to care. That is the hidden cowardice in overbuilding. Building can become avoidance. AI makes that avoidance faster. The real forecast: the internet gets flooded with AI-built products. Most die instantly. App stores, SaaS directories, Product Hunt launches, AI tool lists, and indie hacker feeds become oceans of functional trash. At the same time, a smaller group of operators with distribution and taste will become absurdly powerful because they can now turn demand into product at near-zero delay.
This is the tough lesson that a lot of people are learning the hard way AI might have made building apps a lot easier, but it also set the barrier to entry at zero Because anyone can do it, there is no moat left The only edge left in the future will be sales and marketing
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Carlos retweeted
I've been waiting patiently for this moment... $BTC The final phase. The final extension. I'm about 90% invested.
Apr 23
$BTC I absolutely refuse to believe that $BTC bottomed at $60K. Purely based on cycles, math, historical price action. Every bear cycle has revisited/swept its previous low before pushing higher which means sweeping 60K within the next few months is still very plausible based on historical data. Do I believe this time is different? No. The same people who thought that at 120K ended up rekt. So Im going to stick with history & History shows that bottoming within 123 days is absurd. I nailed a full year of PA by studying history, not by forcing skeptical theses that ignored it. Markets leave patterns. This is the relief bounce to get people to question whether the bottom is in or not.
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Nice
SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Here’s how they stack up: • $ALAB ~2.9x • $ARM ~2.4x • $INTC ~2.2x • $LRCX ~2.2x • $KLAC ~2.0x • $AMAT ~1.7x • $ASML ~1.7x • $ANET ~1.7x • $TSM ~1.2x • $LITE ~1.1x • $COHR ~1.0x • $CRDO ~0.9x • $NVDA ~0.8x • $AMD ~0.7x • $AAOI ~0.7x • $MRVL ~0.6x • $ON ~0.6x • $AVGO ~0.6x • $SNDK ~0.4x • $MU ~0.4x
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Agree
Replying to @Montebianco114
Maybe hyperscalers will produce too much compute. Maybe Chinese will also figure out reusable rockets but cheaper. Maybe LLMs are a dead end. Maybe new architectures will be developed that use drastically less compute. Maybe AI bubble. Maybe data center in space just don't work for some engineering/physics reason Maybe people are too poor to afford whatever AI can make because you replaced all the workers. Maybe we solve software, but all the software that exists, people already pay for it, and you can't make more money by marginally improving software. But also maybe space data centers become a thing and compute demand is infinite, and space data centers are more economically viable etc etc. I'm personally already too old and too rich for all these maybes. But, as I said, I'm not judging people who have considered all these maybes and still believe.
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I endorse this poll results
2026년 연말까지 팔란티어, 엔비디아, 테슬라, 마이크론 중 주가 상승률이 가장 높을 가능성이 큰 종목?
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Carlos retweeted
19 Nov 2025
$50k before ATH. Please note that I am not two sided. $BTC
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Carlos retweeted
Finding A Bitcoin $BTC Low. Mt Gox has begun selling. VWAP, explanations, too much Alpha that could get me doxxed ngl Enjoy, the 60k bottom believers. youtu.be/NgnjwgcIvXk
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Carlos retweeted
股神目前披露的持仓组合
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Mood today: When I see bubbles in progress, I want in!
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Carlos retweeted
HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026 1. $SNDK 614% 2. $AXTI 531% 3. $AEHR 357% 4. $AAOI 354% 5. $NVTS 273% 6. $MU 240% 7. $DELL 234% 8. $BE 228% 9. $DOCN 224% 10. $ARM 223% 11. $RDW 222% 12. $INTC 211% 13. $WDC 208% 14. $NBIS 176% 15. $VIAV 173%
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Interesting business idea both from a supplier and enduser standpoints. Anyone interested here in Malaysia?
Nvidia will now pay you to put a mini AI data center on your house It looks like a normal AC unit in the yard. But inside sits 16 Nvidia Blackwell GPUs and Dell servers. A startup called Span builds them, backed by Nvidia. They bolt onto your home and you get paid for the power and Wi-Fi. Some estimates put that around $1,000 a month in your pocket. That is rent money just for hosting a box outside. Span says it deploys way faster and cheaper than a real data center. The AI boom is literally moving into the suburbs. Save this, the grid is getting rebuilt in real time.
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More should embody the kind of hodler ethos below with a healthy dose of tough love (or pragmatism). Bitcoin is too powerful an idea and wealth-building instrument to die or become irrelevant this soon. Digital gold status matter of when not if.
May 28
I will never sell my Bitcoin But that doesn’t mean I’ll be especially happy holding it
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They say pattern recognition is a key intelligence trait. With that, great public service reminder below.
May 27
There are 310,000 people who follow this guy. here should be ZERO. Noticing a trend here. $SPY $QQQ
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