Metrics that Matter. To the Point

Joined August 2012
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High valuations in digital assets? Where to look for value? Turns out the only sector in digital assets where ๐๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ž-๐ญ๐จ-๐’๐š๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ (๐/๐’) ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐›๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐š๐ญ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž lately is Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs). Why this trend? DePINs have experienced a combination of ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐  ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ (๐…๐ƒ๐•๐ฌ) ๐š๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐š๐๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก, resulting in a compression of P/S ratios over the past years. Where is the contrast? This trend is in contrast to other major crypto sectors like base infrastructure (L1, L2s, and L3s) and decentralized finance (DeFi): - ๐‡๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐/๐’ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ: ๐›๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž (L1, L2s, and L3s) - ๐‹๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐/๐’ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ: ๐ƒ๐ž๐…๐ข, including perpetual protocols, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), lending platforms, and agent-based and liquid staking protocols. Based on transaction fee revenues, ๐/๐’ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐›๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ง๐ž๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ค๐ฌ (๐‹๐Ÿ, ๐‹๐Ÿ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐‹๐Ÿ‘), ๐ƒ๐„๐—๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐จ๐œ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ก๐ž๐ฅ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐š๐๐ฒ, reflecting the relative re-rating of DePINs within the broader market. Read my full analysis w/ @KoschigRobert of @1kxnetwork and @dylangbane of @MessariCrypto ๐Ÿ‘‡ messari.io/report/depin-tokeโ€ฆ
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
โ€œThe Scale Play: When DePIN Goes Industrialโ€ by Mihai Grigore (@Tech_Metrics), Jakob Linus Stammler, Daniel Ammann, Raphael Knechtli Panel diving into the friction between Web3 speed and Web2 reliability in industrial DePIN.
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๐‹๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐  โ€” it drives valuations of digital assets. So is the case for decentralized networks. ๐–๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฆ๐ž๐š๐ง? Despite similar revenues, certain decentralized networks have higher fully diluted valuations (FDVs) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios than their peers. ๐‡๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฌ๐จ? We looked at Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs) with publicly available data. The primary driver of this valuation premium appears to be deep token liquidity, especially when tokens are listed on major exchanges. This liquidity premium aligns with the valuation trends of the broader market. ๐„๐ฑ๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ซ๐ญ We segmented DePIN protocols based on liquidity depth and exchange listing status. A diagonal trend line effectively separates most listed from non-listed projects. Bubble sizes reflect current liquidity depth. ๐…๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ : Exchange listings tend to correspond to larger bubbles, indicating deeper liquidity. ๐„๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง: - Projects situated in the upper-right quadrant, those combining deep liquidity with exchange listings, command significantly higher valuations relative to their revenues. - Projects in the lower-left quadrant, which lack such listings and exhibit thinner liquidity, are valued more conservatively despite comparable revenue profiles. Wanna look into the details? Read my full analysis w/ @KoschigRobert of @1kxnetwork and @dylangbane of @MessariCrypto: messari.io/report/depin-tokeโ€ฆ
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
๐Ÿš€ VC Panel @ETHBucharest_ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด โ€œLetโ€™s get ugly quickly & make mistakes early.โ€ ๐Ÿง  AI x Blockchain = coordination power ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿš€ Founders: obsession > code. Being technical isnโ€™t a must anymore! ๐ŸŽฎ GameFi: big potential, but weโ€™re early. Gamers resist switching games or adopting asset portability ๐Ÿ“‰ Tokenomics wonโ€™t save weak products @cleanunicorn @lior_eth @vicimikul @EthanPierse @tech_metrics #ETHBucharest #Web3 #GameFi #CryptoVC #AIxBlockchain
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How profitable is it to run decentralized infrastructure? Looked at profit margins for Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs): For ๐——๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐˜€ (๐——๐—ฅ๐—ก๐˜€), reward based profit margins range from 0% to 200%. ๐——๐—ฅ๐—ก๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€, e.g., Livepeer, The Graph, Filecoin, and Covalent. In contrast, ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐˜†๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐˜€ (๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—ก๐˜€) typically achieve: โ€ข ~๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ% profit margins ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜„-๐—–๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€: e.g., Dimo, Helium, or Arkreen where nodes cost several hundred dollars at most. โ€ข ~๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ% ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ profit margins ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—›๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ-๐—–๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€: e.g., Helium Mobile, XNET, WeatherXM, Hivemapper, and GEODNET, where the nodes start at $400. For details and assumptions, check my full research w/ @KoschigRobert (@1kxnetwork ) and @dylangbane (@MessariCrypto) on token rewards in DePINs: messari.io/report/depin-tokeโ€ฆ
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
Today, we @1kxnetwork release Part 2 of our DePIN Tokenomics Series with @dylangbane and @tech_metrics from @MessariCrypto. We analyzed the reward mechanisms of 27 DePINs - here's what the data reveals ๐Ÿงต
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Whatโ€™s the right balance for token rewards in Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs)? Data says: - DePIN token rewards range from 5.5%โ€“11% of total token supply per year during the first 1โ€“2 years after launch - Over a typical 4y vesting period, DePIN rewards average ~20% of total token supply, effectively mirroring the average percentage allocated to project teams #DePIN #tokenomics
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Is there a right balance for token rewards? Yes, there is! To avoid overpaying or underpaying network participants, DePIN operators should align token rewards with the actual costs of running network nodes. If precise cost-based rewards arenโ€™t feasible, a general guideline is to allocate 5.5%โ€“11% of total token supply per year during the first 1โ€“2 years. This range can serve as a benchmark for token reward distributions. My research collab w/ @KoschigRobert (@1kxnetwork ) and @dylangbane (@MessariCrypto) on token reward distribution is now live: messari.io/report/depin-tokeโ€ฆ Special thanks to @SCBuergel, @a_d_c_, @jerrysun_, @maartjebus, Mihai Buca, and Steven Biekens for providing feedback ๐Ÿ™Œ
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๐Ÿงต Why do DePINs distribute token incentives to their node operators? At launch, many DePINs face the chicken-and-egg problem: low user demand arises from an inadequate supply of services. To address this, most DePIN incentive mechanisms have incentivized the supply of services
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Finding 3: DePINs mainly use gateway companies or foundations to generate revenue with plans to decentralize the demand side over time. Burn-and-Mint (BME) and Node-Purchase models have become more common over time, driven by an increase in PRN launches.
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Most DePINs require "skin-in-the-game": - Digital Resource Networks primarily use a Stake for Access token incentive model; - Physical Resource Networks primarily use a Node-Purchase model. Check my research w/ @KoschigRobert (@1kxnetwork) & @dylangbane (@MessariCrypto) below:
We @1kxnetwork just published our first report on DePIN tokenomics with @dylangbane and @tech_metrics from @MessariCrypto, starting with an analysis of incentive mechanisms on 100 DePINs ๐Ÿงต
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
After a full day with @ethereumJoseph l, glad to meet those 2 legends @StefanDGeorge from @GnosisDAO @GnosisVC and @tech_metrics from @MessariCrypto at @cfcstmoritz, always learning a ton ๐Ÿ‘
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
We @1kxnetwork just published our first report on DePIN tokenomics with @dylangbane and @tech_metrics from @MessariCrypto, starting with an analysis of incentive mechanisms on 100 DePINs ๐Ÿงต
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Mihai Grigore ๐Ÿš€ retweeted
gm gm โ˜€๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ seems that thereโ€™s quite a small world after all, even here at @cfcstmoritz ๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿค“
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Published research has a problem: if experiments cannot be reproduced, the results cannot be truly verified. DeSci aims to solve for transparency of data sets & methodologies. Bullish DeSci ๐Ÿš€
3 Jan 2025
PHDegens ๐Ÿค DeSci Season. A list to follow along: x.com/i/lists/18752112497907โ€ฆ
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Crypto investing in 2024: - Infra & L1s most attractive for VCs to allocate to; @MonadLabs led the way w/ $225m fundraise - While deals up 16% YoY to 3k deals, the amount raised was down 20% YoY to $16b - AI & DePIN fundraising up ~100% YoY and ~300% YoY, resp h/t @0xSynthesis1
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Curious about the main themes from 2024 crypto fundraising? Read the fundraising section in the 2025 @MessariCrypto Theses: x.com/messaricrypto/status/1โ€ฆ

16 Dec 2024
We are so back! The Messari Theses for 2025 is live and available for free. Jump into the full report now โฌ‡๏ธ
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