Contributors: @JacobBarzilla & @DrewScouts

Joined June 2025
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THE TEXANS PROBE HAS A NEW YOUTUBE HOME! @DrewScouts & @TexansJacob are moving the Texans breakdown podcast to a new youtube specifically for the Texans Probe! New episodes will still be weekly during the season & some mixed in during the offseason as well. Link to YT below ⬇️
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Texans Probe retweeted
Jayden Higgins had too many opportunities on throws down the field go to waste due to either bad balls, miscommunications or other things. Could be in for a big 2026 season if the QBs & him clean up these.
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Texans Probe retweeted
Some star WRs Y/RR over the last 3 seasons via @PFF: Puka Nacua - 3.19 Nico Collins - 2.75 A.J. Brown - 2.48 Amon-Ra St. Brown - 2.47 Justin Jefferson - 2.38 Ja’Marr Chase - 2.23 Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 2.22 Collins has just been ridiculously good & consistent for Houston.
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Pretty good here from C.J. Stroud throwing 20 yards in clean pockets with some missed opportunities due to bad WR/TE play or just misses from Stroud. He’s a damn good thrower of the football when in rhythm but he’s too easy to knock out of that rhythm as of now. Hopefully an improved run game can help that heavily.
C.J. Stroud - every throw of 20 air yards from a clean pocket in 2025
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CJ Stroud EPA/DB targeting different alignments in 2025 via @NextGenStats: Wide: 0.12 (21st) Tight: 0.20 (18th) Slot: 0.35 (8th) Backfield: 0.08 (8th) Much different from 2024 where Stroud was 12th in EPA/DB targeting wide targets & not top 20 in any other category. Year 2 Higgins with the return of Tank Dell & better protection should help that improve in 2026.
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The Texans offense led all teams in quick first-read completions last year via PFF, they were 26 completions ahead of 2nd place in the LA Rams. Houston’s offensive staff did a nice job creating surroundings for Stroud & co. that gave easy answers & help stay ahead of the chains which led to a much more efficient Stroud & pass game from 2024.
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Going to be great content coming this camp & preseason with roster projections & more!
The Texans have a really good amount of depth this year on offense compared to last year and will make the roster decisions really tough. - 10 roster caliber lineman (11 including Neal who I like) - 7 roster caliber WRs (Sobkowicz also making good impressions) - 5 roster caliber TEs - 4/5 roster caliber RBs Going to be very exciting camp & preseason to decide those roles.
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A look at the 2025 season for both of Houston's RT options Trent Brown & Braden Smith via @PFF. Brown was the first team RT today with Braden Smith dealing with some injuries.
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The Texans are schedule to have 3 mandatory mini-camp practices this week starting tomorrow & extending through Thursday. Will be a chance to get a better look at the OL configurations along with the offense vs full Texans defense with Danielle Hunter & Sheldon Rankins returning to practice.
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Texans DE3 from last year Derek Barnett compared to his potential replacements in Dylan Horton, Dominique Robinson & Ali Gaye via @PFF: Robinson is probably the most likely to give you the pass rush juice that Barnett brought while Horton has the higher upside as a run defender.
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Texans QB C.J. Stroud is still just one postseason away from playing good football against good defenses in January even if it feels forever ago. - ( 0.07 EPA/Play) - 46.5% Success Rate - 2.8% CPOE - 9.7 AY/ATT - 8.6 YPA - 74.2 PFF Grade - 90.9 Passing Grade when kept clean We’ve seen QBs recently (Sam Darnold & Jordan Love among others) have poor post seasons then rebound in future seasons, Stroud wouldn’t be in totally uncharted territory there.
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Last year was the first season C.J. Stroud had the responsibility of IDing at the line & more things on his plate at the LOS which I think did help the offense but still ways away from where it likely needs to be. Good to hear Jerry & Caley prioritizing the pre-snap stuff from Stroud to create easy advantages for the offense along with an improved run game on early downs.
Texans QB coach Jerry Schuplinski on CJ Stroud on year 2 in the system (via Texans All Access w/ @TexansVoice & @jharrisfootball) “Really good spring so far. Coming back in pretty good shape. He looks good. He thinned out a bit, looks good. He’s always been throwing the ball really well, his footwork has been really good, all the mechanical stuff. His grasp of everything, he’s operating a lot faster. You could see it at the line, the way he’s able to move guys around, re-id projections, you can see him feel way more comfortable. I feel like he’s owning everything we’re doing.”
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Texans Probe retweeted
Noticed a few things in the Tank Dell walkthrough videos from yesterday. - Looks like Tank is still working on the outside at Z heavily (Justin Watson was in the slot on at least one play.) - Jake Andrews & Braden Smith at C/RT on one catch with the 1s. - Jaylin Smith at CB opposite Derek Stingley Jr. who is clearly CB3. - Togiai & McDonald at DT with no Rankins currently. Still way too early in the offseason to know depth charts etc but some things to pay attention to moving forward.
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Texans Probe retweeted
Texans OC Nick Caley says him & C.J. Stroud have always had a great relationship and are continuing to expand the “finer points” of the relationship. He said Stroud sees the game extremely well.
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Texans Probe retweeted
Nick Caley said it’s important for him to evolve in the early down & distance and try to move players around putting them in different situations. Avoiding the long 3rd downs is a goal for them in 2026.
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Nick Caley mentioned being able to do 12/13/20 personnel as things that are important in 2026. He said the TE room was thinned out early with Brevin/Stover injuries early that forced them into the “jumbo world.”
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Texans DC Matt Burke said they tried to add a lot of pieces to the LB room this offseason. They have a lot of players who can/have played MIKE/WILL for them. Mentioned Marte Mapu & Wade Woodaz as key additions.
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The 3 X-Factors to Houston's offense in 2026. - QB C.J. Stroud - WR Jaylin Noel - OT Aireontae Ersery I explain why these players are key to Houston's success in 2026 and why they will likely determine their offensive upside. open.substack.com/pub/texans…
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Comparing C.J. Stroud's advanced numbers from 2023 & 2025 regular seasons via @PFF, @NextGenStats & RBSDM: Stroud adapted to playing more with timing and in structure in 2025 while losing some of the explosiveness from 2023 while improving under pressure. The playoffs were a utter disaster for Stroud but the season itself was not.
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C.J. Stroud said he’s excited about the new additions & “grateful” for the additions to the offensive line. He said he thinks they are trending up and those guys just add to it.
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C.J. Stroud said he & Nick Caley are growing and forming a better relationship together throughout the offseason. He said the self-scout was a big thing for him doing things he & others on roster succeed at.
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