We will definitely take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new phase.

THIRD U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER, USS GEORGE H.W. BUSH, DEPLOYS TO MIDDLE EAST - WSJ

Super conceited take — it’s so irresponsibly brash to downplay what is going to turn into a humanitarian crisis and stick to a "glass half full approach". Actually, brash is too soft a word. Taking a “glass half full” approach to the Strait being closed is taking the view that some people can die and that’s OK. The implication that there's more than one way to look at output is complete nonsense. There is no 'objectivity' to wellhead output. It is either there, or it's not there. Period end of story. There is 11-12 MMbbls/d of total liquids output missing. This means one of two things; inventories need to draw to allow demand to continue at steady-state levels; or demand needs to fall. Naturally these two meet in the middle, but there's not infinite inventory. For people like me in North America, it’ll probably be OK. Developing countries can’t really afford to compete away my crude supply, and we have enough disposable income to absorb a supply shock. So maybe for anyone with an internet connection watching Sunday sports reading this today, it’s not a big deal. For a few billion people in Asia it’s definitely a big deal. How do you have a country with a GNI per capita of 5-10% vs. the US, compete in the global seaborne fuel trade with western countries. The answer is they don’t. But I’ll get to that in a sec. The implication that global inventories will save us is also grossly naive. Here's something I'm positive in, I have better models than Dan. It can be easy to dismiss it but we don't have 8.2bnbbls of useable inventory. We can take global stocks down to in the low-6bnbbls before we have a real problem, which means the world's useable buffer really is around ~2bnbbls. Beyond that refineries start to shut down (you can’t run a refinery at half throughput), gas stations just stop having gas, to keep drawing inventories you have to be ’destructive’ (i.e. you have to empty a tank, and you can’t operate until it’s back above minimum operating level). At ~4.4bnbbls it’s like “no turning back” mode to get more oil and liquids. Right now, the world, including oil-on-water, has a ~600mmbbl stock draw lined up. This is what the first chart shows. This is the IEA telegraphed dispatch, plus ~sanctioned crude. That’s ~8% of the world’s inventory right now. Let's go through what a ~600mmbbl stock draw gets us. It allows for consumption with ~2-3mmbbls/d of demand destruction until early April. That includes the “tanker gift” which I’m adding in as fully incremental supply (I’m not sure it is). This means the world is about 2 weeks away from that point. That's ~600mmbbls. Without Hormuz flow, we’d have to keep releasing inventories. But lets just say we stop releasing inventories; that means ~5mmbbls/d of demand destruction, through May, more if you work through math of Chinese flows. THAT’S THE ENTIRE SUB-CONTINENT OF INDIA GOING WITHOUT LIQUIDS FUELS. INDIA CONSUMED 5-6MMBBLS/D OF LIQUIDS FUELS. THAT’S THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF INDIA WITHOUT ENERGY. Of course, we’re not going to stop releasing inventory, so what if we wanted to continue business as usual. This is what the stock draws need to look like to “keep the world fed”. That gets the world until ~August, and I’m counting jet-fuel demand destruction at ~1mmbbls/d in demand figures along with the reduced bunker fuel from less shipping. This is what the second chart shows. So that gets us to August. That may seem like a long ways away but that’s 4 months away, and the pain starts showing up in April. So that’s 2 weeks until pain, then 3.5 months of consistently deteriorating society, then a total loss of energy without dipping into pretty much ‘no go’ emergency reserves. Global absolute minimum observable stocks are ~4.4bnbbls. Below that and it’s implied you’re either shutting down a refinery, or not shipping crude anymore. This is things like oil in a pipeline (if you start drawing it, you’re losing pipe pressure and shutting pipeline down), minimum tank levels in commercial stocks, minimum refinery inventory (if you’re drawing this you’re going to shut down the refinery as you can’t run a refinery at ‘half’ you need continuous feed), minimum strategic reserves (same thing, you’re sucking below tank nozzles or risking cavern integrity). At ~4.4bnbbls you’re start to essentially screw the entire system to get more oil; at around 6bnbbls you’re starting to remove slack and if you don’t have line of sight to replenishing stocks (like tanks in a gas station), there will be temporary shortages. So at ~8-8.1bnbbls of observable inventory today you have ~2bnbbls before there’s intermittent fuel shortages, and ~3.6bnbbls before there’s nothing left. By April, after the known stock releases, that’s ~3bnbbls until there’s nothing left; and 1.4bnbbls before there’s, effectively, rationing and shortages (i.e. death). With 12mmbbls/d shut-in that’s 115 days before we don’t have the stocks to backfill. I think it can be pretty easy to be a doomer, it can also be pretty easy to be a permabull. I don’t really think I’m either (I’m not a permabull, maybe I have a bearish bias because of our supply-side work, but that’s supply-driven). I’m also not really a doomer, I have no view on “the economy” or inflation or whatever. I just see 12mmbbls/d of liquids production offline, which, again, is TWO INDIA’S worth of demand. So what happens when we are running thin on stocks; people in Asia start bidding on Atlantic cargos. WTI for example. Of course, they’ll have to pay a lot for those cargos because they’re effectively needing to pay enough to take it away from the developed world. So you can have a “glass half full” take because you can afford to keep your fuel (I can, and I acknowledge that), but on the other side that’s someone going without fuel. The shape of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with daily traffic at <15% of pre-war levels. People will go without fuel if the shape of the conflict is not "over tomorrow". And for the record, backwardation in the crude curve means WE NEED FUEL ***NOW***, it will only become more backwardated with time as the premium for energy TODAY becomes more scarce. LPG and LNG is *WAY* more important to the developing world than the US. Again, the US is in such a good spot when it comes to energy security, but how the fk is Myanmar supposed to out-bid Germany or Italy in the global seaborne energy market. They won’t. Taking a “glass half full” outlook to resuming energy flows is saying that those people can all get fucked, which is a disgusting take imho.

A professional cornhole player with no arms and legs has been accused of murder in Charles County. fox5dc.com/news/dayton-webbe…

Pennsylvania Olive Garden employee dead after reportedly taking his own life by removing his clothes and dunking his head into a hot deep fryer in the kitchen.

BREAKING: U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has informed Congress that the United States intends to purchase Greenland.

While I'm sure the causes are complicated, no nation has leaned more into "diversity is our strength, we don't need a melting pot we have a salad bowl" immigration insanity than Canada. It has the highest foreign-born share of the population in the entire G7 and its living standards have stagnated.