Markets may be underestimating the divergence happening beneath the surface. The macro thesis: • Consumer sentiment is near record lows despite stocks hitting new highs • The top 10% of Americans now drive ~50% of all consumer spending • Asset owners continue benefiting from inflation and rising markets • Bottom-tier consumers are being squeezed by higher costs and stagnant purchasing power • Historically, extremely low sentiment has been a strong contrarian bullish signal for equities The economy may be splitting into two realities: one driven by assets and capital appreciation, the other pressured by inflation and declining affordability. Source: @APompliano

War is basically economic in nature. Of course there are many qualifiers including regimes based on religious extremism. That being said, unless there’s something I am missing if the US wants to make the deal possible with the Islamic Regime of Iran, it’s in their best interest to delay. The US has a lot more leverage and Irans leverage gets less every day: 1. Their economy keeps getting hammered by the blockade. 2. Every time there is an escalation, the IRI empties more of their depleting missile stockpile, with no noticeable degradation of our military assets, and the retaliation knocks out more of theirs. 3. The Strait of Hormuz gets more cleared daily. While this is the IRI’s leverage, they killed the golden goose. US and Venezuela exports are skyrocketing. Additionally, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building alternate infrastructure to permanently bypass the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Gas ⛽️ prices in the US are Iran’s 2nd point of leverage, bolstered by the Democrats. Even this is diminishing daily and should drop in September, in time for the mid terms. In short, whether the US is aiming for peace or Regime change, its best course is to blockade and chill. What am I missing?

In 2024, Argentina passed Law 27,739, setting clearer regulatory standards for how Virtual Asset Service Providers register, operate, and comply with AML and KYC requirements. The move matters in a market that already leads Latin America in crypto use, with the highest crypto adoption rate in the Western Hemisphere by percentage of population. Clearer regulatory standards help turn adoption into structured market activity. That is what makes regulatory clarity important: it creates the conditions for digital asset activity to move from isolated adoption into structured economic participation.

Elon Musk is now a trillionaire and Reddit is much dumber than you think.

Messari has been acquired by Blockworks. This brings together the two largest crypto data and market intelligence platforms to build the trusted information infrastructure onchain markets need as they mature.

1/ Blockworks has acquired Messari. We’re bringing together crypto’s two largest data and market intelligence platforms.

That's a wrap on Onchain Finance in São Paulo. @gaborgurbacs closed out the OpenAssets schedule with two panels and the event's final remarks, covering real-world asset tokenization and digital asset management at @itau and @BTGPactual. Thanks to the @valorcapgroup team for putting it together. Until next time!

Bitcoin price since the beginning of 2026 bitcoin:native

Tokenization is transforming capital markets. Here are some of the key sectors driving that shift today: • Stablecoins • Tokenized U.S. Treasuries • Tokenized Commodities • Non-Government Tokenized Credit • Tokenized Non-U.S. Sovereign Debt • Tokenized Real Estate • Tokenized Equities • Private Equity / Venture Capital • Active Strategies Each of these is evolving at a different pace, but together, they’re shaping how markets will operate going forward.

Markets may be underestimating what history is signaling. Anthony Pompliano’s latest macro thesis: • The S&P 500 just posted one of its strongest 2-month rallies ever • Similar setups historically led to gains 12 months later 100% of the time • Average forward returns after these rare momentum surges exceeded 40% • S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 25% this year, driven by AI and Big Tech • Bitcoin may be approaching a major cycle bottom based on historical supply signals • Lower interest rates could add further fuel to asset prices Multiple markets are flashing the same message: Momentum, earnings growth, AI adoption, and monetary policy are aligning. The next phase may not be a slowdown. It may be a melt-up. Source: @APompliano

Is regulation holding back tech in the EU?

Legacy finance relies on multiple systems and intermediaries for ownership. Tokenization is paving the way for a new era, making ownership records directly verifiable and easily transferable.

Onboarding new tech is best dome seamlessly - as few actions as possible, and fewer "decisions". Same goes for RWAs, tokenization, Web 3.0, whatever words we use. "Click here for a 50% discount on your remittance fee with our new high-speed program." One-click. As a parallel, let's look at mobile APIs. 50% of the people using them probably never heard the term. 99% of users don't even have a basic technical understanding of what coding language to use for an efficient secure application programming interface. That doesn't stop an estimated 4-6 million people from using mobile APIs regularly. (Sign in with Google/Apple, Pay with PayPal)

Great opportunity for open source tech builders 👇

Did you miss @Crypto_TownHall today? Peter Schiff joined and pretty much sounded like he was the Bitcoin Boogyman scaring people saying it's going to zero. Stay safe. Stack Sats. HODL. Self Custody.

"Human will is the most egalitarian, capital-efficient form of collateral ever created." Frame it and put it in the Lourve. Massively impressed with the work @3janexyz is doing for our industry.

Now think about your mum and dad. Maybe they moved to digital banking but only really because the bank closed the local branch and stuck an app on their phone. They adapted, but it wasn't their natural world. Me? I've only ever known digital banking. I've never written a cheque in my life. I wouldn't even know where to start. That's just my normal. And now there's a generation coming up who will look at me the same way I look at my grandparents pulling out a cheque book. They'll grow up in a world where owning a fraction of a building in America, or a slice of a private equity fund, or a piece of infrastructure in Scotland is just... normal. That's just how you own things. That's just how money moves.

The Open Tokenized Asset Standard (OTAS) defines how tokenized financial systems should behave to be interoperable, auditable, and trusted across institutions. Read the thread to learn more. 🧵👇

Yesterday at @valorcapgroup's Onchain Finance event, the conversation focused on a key piece of onchain finance: standardization. @gaborgurbacs joined representatives from @Kaleido_io, @OpenZeppelin, @Mysten_Labs, and @lfdecentralized, exploring how shared standards can support institutional adoption. The conversation continues today with more panels and perspectives from across the ecosystem.

OpenAssets is in São Paulo for Onchain Finance 2026, hosted by @valorcapgroup, on connecting traditional finance and the onchain economy. @gaborgurbacs is joining as a speaker, with the team on the ground, alongside leading banks including @itau, Safra, BTG Pactual and others shaping onchain finance. This is exactly the conversation institutional tokenization has to move forward.

🏠 U.S. Housing Market Is Finally Cooling • Median home prices surged from $329K to $443K between 2020 and 2022 • Pandemic-era demand, low supply, and investor buying fueled the boom • Higher mortgage rates and rising inventory are now shifting leverage back to buyers • In Q1 2026, home prices fell in 39 of the 129 largest U.S. cities • More homes on the market are forcing sellers to cut prices in many regions After years of relentless price growth, the housing market is showing signs of normalization as affordability pressures reduce buyer competition. Source: @STLFedResearch