Brent crude oil closed the day above $100. The world did not began 2026 with a shortage of oil, but with full reservoirs and a surplus. So, why there is such a tension in energy market? The current problem lies not in a shortage of molecules of energy carriers, but in the vulnerability of transportation and delivery system of those molecules. The classic doctrine of
#energy_security is built on three fundamental principles.
1- The availability of energy resources.
2- Technology for extracting resources and converting primary energy carriers (e.g., crude oil, sour gas) into final energy carriers (e.g., gasoline, electricity, LNG)
3- Safe delivery of the final energy carriers to the consumer/market with a reasonable price.
Instability in or damage to any of these three essential pillars will expose the energy economy—and consequently, the global economy—to risk.
What the market is experiencing in the current situation, is neither a shortage of resources nor a weakness in technology, but rather the elevated risk associated with the mechanism of "safe energy delivery" .The non-homogeneous geographical distribution of fossil energy resources, which brings the necessity of transporting them via sea and land routes, has been regarded as an Achilles heels for fossil economies. This, of course, exists for other energy resources (i.e., renewables) as well.
Just as, even now during the war, the mere existence of resources and a temporary release of strategic oil reserves does not solve the problem, in my view, after this war end, and even with a drop in oil price, the world will witness a major revision on the priorities in energy policymaking. This war serves as a wake-up call to energy policymakers in nations, urging them to adopt an appropriate approach for filling their energy basket, tailored to the territorial proportionality, available technologies, and the reliability of political and security relations.
"Supply chain resilience" will be a top priority in my view for energy policymaking in the world after 2026. This has been often considered as the fourth pillar of “modern energy security doctrine”. However, to me, it’s somehow a combination of the others. The true fourth pillar of
#energy_security doctrine however, to me, is the
#environmental_sustainability of energy supply.
#OOTT