Is this the real Nicky G?
To say Nick Gonzalez is on a tear would be an understatement.
The spark plug infielder has a 13 game on-base streak that includes eight multi-hit games, including going 2-for-5 in the trouncing of the Reds yesterday. He’s raised his OPS from .578 before the streak to a respectable .771 with the second-best batting average in MLB at .336.
If you’re looking to be critical about him, this streak has come with very few extra base hits -- just two of his 23 hits, both doubles, But when he comes to the plate, I’ve taken to expecting him to get a hit, especially with men on base (.860 OPS) and even more so with RISP (1.013 OPS).
So, uh, is this our guy? Is this Freddy Sanchez reincarnate, ready to take over 3B for the foreseeable future?
Potential Finally Realized
Gonzales was billed as one of the best pure hitters in the nation as a New Mexico State junior in 2020, leading to his being drafted seventh overall by the Pirates in 2020.
I still remember how his Baseball America pre-draft scouting report ended: “Scouts see him developing into an All-Star level second baseman who competes for batting titles at his peak.”
He hit all through the system from 2021-2023 with a surprising amount of power (12, 18 and 14 HR respectively). When he premiered in 2023, expectations were running high. But in his first three seasons, he never fully turned the corner. His .675 OPS in 900 PA was unremarkable.
The difference between his prodigiousness in the minors and the results for the Pirates is stark in all ways, but one category that continues to plague him to this day is walks. He had a strong 11.4% walk rate in the minors, but less than half that in the majors (5%). This season it has modestly improved to 7.1%.
Underlying Data is Iffy
Looking at his .442 batting average over this stretch, it probably won’t surprise you to know that Fangraphs and Statcast don’t believe this level of production is sustainable.
Gonzo has a .418 BABIP for the season, which is just a wee bit inflated (just a touch). He also has an exit velocity (14th percentile) and barrel % (3rd percentile) that suggest he isn’t hitting the ball hard enough to keep this going. He has just one barrel all season thus far.
He is exhibiting incredible bat-to-ball skills, but his bat speed (26th percentile) suggests this could turn off at any point. Think Adam Frazier post-trade to the Padres in 2021.
But unlike Frazier, who had so many seeing eye and bloop singles, Gonzalez’s line drive % and hard hit % (just over the 95 mph threshold) are up for the season. But at the same time, his other Statcast metrics are all well-below career norms, suggesting the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of all this offensive output.
He is likely to be more sustainable as the season goes on, even if this high output recedes a bit.
Bottom Line 📌
Is this the real Nicky G? Well, sort of. He was always a better hitter than his first 900 plate appearances in the major leagues suggested. But he is benefitting from a healthy amount of luck during this 13 game streak.
What isn’t a mirage is his defense, which has been really respectable at 3B. His range is in the 89th percentile, and his arm strength is a passable 43rd percentile. There’s no need to swap him out with newly returned Jared Triolo because he’s embarrassing himself out there. Far from it.
Offensively, the data points at a .285/,350/.400 profile that will work just fine at 3B this year. He has potential to outperform this should he start barreling balls with increased exit velocity at career norms. Call it a ceiling of .300/.370/.430.
His is just an extremely unique profile from others in the Pirates lineup, which also makes him differentiated and useful for a team of boppers.
I’m buying Nick Gonzalez as the Pirates starting 3B for 2026, and you should too.
ALT Adapted from MLB.com player profile