CANBERRA, WE HAVE A PROBLEM
The cost forecasting in the budget is getting a lot worse.
How bad is it? The budget update issued just ahead of Christmas added another $47.8bn to government spending.
That is the equivalent of doubling last year’s NDIS costs. We’re talking really big bucks here.
That $47.8bn wasn’t because the economic or revenue forecasts had been revised. The cost estimates are separately updated for new forecasts for jobs and joblessness, prices and wages, interest and exchange rates, and also for new GST estimates (because any changes there are passed onto the states).
And nor was it because of new policies – they’re also separately accounted for.
Rather, the extra $47.8bn that we’re spending is simply because existing policies are now expected to be more expensive than earlier thought.
The cost forecasts of the feds used to be pretty accurate. In the six years before COVID these revisions averaged $0.7 billion.
Then COVID threw a spanner in the works. Every time the government updated the budget, it added an average of $3.0 billion to expected costs.
Still, the ravages of COVID are long since in the rearview mirror, so you’d hope those forecasting errors shrunk again.
But, as the chart shows, they didn’t. There have been seven budget updates since late 2022, and they’ve revealed errors that average $18.4 billion. And now the latest cost revision has weighed in at $47.8 billion more than had been expected at the 2025-26 budget.
The bottom line? It is long past time for an overhaul of our budget rules, reporting and forecasting. They are all being badly abused: we’re being taken for mugs.
And unless and until we hold our politicians to a higher standard, then maybe we deserve to be …