Ended up allocating back into solar earlier today. Names I bought that seem interesting: $CSIQ $JKS $SEDG $ENPH $TE $FSLR Also bought $FLNC Missed the early JKS move but caught the tail end. TE imo is the most speculative, not sure how I feel about it but wanted exposure. CSIQ could squeeze, short interest is very high. FLNC margins are getting squeezed but the sector should see strong demand. Everything seems bullish for solar/grid storage going forward. Oil likely to remain higher, Dems may sweep midterms (and extend 45X credits), countries will be focusing on energy security after the Hormuz debacle.

Reiterating that if I were to construct a portfolio that I believe will outperform the index this is where I'd start. Add $MKTX and $TW to the list too, they're starting to look quite juicy. Also one last hot take: AI adopters > AI providers looking out a couple of years

These former compounder names seem like a great place to find long-term holds for the portfolio while the AI trade absorbs all of the liquidity. ABT, KBR, ZTS, BSX, MDT, CELH, BR, SE, MELI, LDOS, PODD etc. Will post a full list sometime later

Sold both of these. NKTR wasn’t able to get off the mat, made ~30% on ABVX. Good enough for me, seeing too much bull cope on the timeline now. Could still work but people will want to sell as it goes higher, imo easy money has been made

Added $CHTR this morning. Obviously an equity stub, high risk, satellite internet & fiber overhang. Feels too cheap here, credit not pricing in BK risk and most debt is longer-dated

Sold RXRX bought NKTR and ABVX with the proceeds. Droolers and people with low conviction got run over, time to get burnt myself. Selling on both feels excessive

Last post on this but I continue to pound the table on $COUR, $1.6b mcap w/ $1.15b unimpaired cash. $500m buyback announced. Seen as an AI loser but has strong potential to become an AI winner both as an AI enabled education platform and for retraining due to AI job loss. Guiding for ~$200m EBITDA on what will be $800m EV post buyback. SBC is a headwind but they've established a $10 price floor for equity grants, management fairly aligned w/ shareholders

Anyone have an opinion on whether $MAR is a short here? I normally avoid shorting on valuation alone but this one is a boring business where I probably won’t get my face ripped off. Feels like potential inflation oil price could be a headwind to the business over the next 12mo

State of the market: can’t find an S&P 600 equal weight ETF but 2 days after a hot new AI stock IPOs I can buy a 2x levered ETF wrapper

You can tell we're in a bubble because I just bought $RXRX Not because I think it's a good stock or anything but because Im pretty sure the droolers will bid it up and it looks like it may have bottomed

Bought $JFB , supposed to merge with XTEND an Israeli drone company. Eric Trump & UMAC are investors and connected to the merger. Total punt Also bought $HDSN, refrigerants business that I think is too cheap here. Partnered with SOLS on reclaiming their next gen refrigerants.

$LX 16% now after opening at unch. Market really gives you no time to make decisions lately. I own a small position, less than I’d like. Probably still cheap given a lot of regulatory uncertainty is behind them

Portfolio update: I managed to sell at the worst time on March 20th, realized I was wrong the 3rd week of April, bought back in and have still managed 30% YTD. I’ve got a foot near the door but the best advice I could give my former self would be: don’t be stubborn. 10 years ago I’d still be sitting on the sidelines cursing the insanity that is the market. And perhaps former me would eventually end up being right, but he wouldn’t have made a lot of money. I’m thankful to be able to play this game full time and I enjoy it, but if you try to rationalize every move in the market you’ll go insane. In the long-term the market and economy are connected, but in the short-run it’s almost all an interplay of liquidity and positioning. I’ll probably be rotating out of solar here soon and positioning in more defensive, under-owned sectors like financials payments, consumer staples, and utilities. There’s potentially more money to be made in the AI-adjacent themes but I live off of my account and it’s large enough that my primary focus is avoiding loss and generating decent, steady returns. I live well below my means so I mostly do this because I enjoy it; I’d probably be better suited to buying the index and going to the beach but I’m not sure what I’d replace those 8 hours a day staring at charts with.

Not a huge fan of Chinese fintech but with all this talk of $TIGR and $FUTU being buys, the one I'd lean into is $LX. Completely bombed out like the others but had a green day when every other China fintech was imploding or red. Obviously a different industry than the brokerages but QFIN and other competitors were also down. IMO could be bottoming, might be worth a small punt

You do not own enough financials. Payments are priced like they’re in the depths of the Great Recession. Sentiment will follow price when it starts moving higher. Not a short-term call but a good place to position to mitigate downside risk & capture upside imo

My solar stocks that are all negative earnings after backing out the 45X credits? 50%. My 5x forward earnings payments stocks that will buy back >50% of their market cap over the next few years? -5% Skate to where the droolers are going - Warren Buffett

$COUR $500m buyback auth and still nobody wants to touch it, pump got sold instantly. Upped my position again here. My book is currently being carried by my solar longs ($TE SEDG ENPH CSIQ) but it's getting a bit concentrated after this move up, too speculative for my liking