The PredictionMarkets.us beta is live. Live pricing across @Kalshi, @Polymarket, and @PredictIt — same event, different prices, side by side. More platforms coming soon. We built it because nobody else made sense of this market. predictionmarkets.us What's inside: • 86 articles and 170 guides — regulatory, platform, troubleshooting • Arbitrage finder whale trade tracker • Live event pages built before the news cycle catches up • Glossary, leaderboard, alerts, watchlists One search. One place to compare.

Forever and ever Perpetual futures have landed in America… and have the potential to re-orient finance as we know it substacktools.com/sharex/rmD…

48 hours until the first Iran peace market expires. @Polymarket "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15": 22c. $4.47M traded in 24 hours alone. The crowd is pricing a 22% chance that the US and Iran formally sign -- or publicly confirm -- a lasting end to military hostilities before Sunday. Not a temporary ceasefire. Not "negotiations are ongoing." A bilateral permanent agreement with language explicitly ending hostilities from both governments. The bar is high. The clock is short. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ir… ─── Source: Polymarket API 07:30 ET | Topic: Geopolitical | Urgency: today (re-verify price before posting) Polymarket US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? $301,699,209 has traded on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" as of June 13, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market...

No consensus in the 2028 presidential race -- and the market is saying exactly that. @Kalshi's 2028 board: $43.5M wagered. Rubio: 18c Vance: 15c Newsom: 14c Top 3 fit inside a 4-point band. No runaway favorite. Most actively traded named candidate today: Jon Ossoff at 6.7c. The regulated exchange is watching a name most pundits haven't put on the board yet. kalshi.com/events/kxprespers… ─── Source: Kalshi.com 08:00 ET | Topic: Political | Urgency: whenever

The USA's 2026 World Cup opener is TONIGHT at 9 PM ET at SoFi Stadium. Prediction markets: USA win 46%, draw 30%, Paraguay 24%. $5.4M already traded on this single match. $2.1B on World Cup Winner overall. Spain 17%, France 16% for the Cup. USA is fighting to get out of Group D first. Trade it on Kalshi (all 50 states) or Polymarket US. predictionmarkets.us/article… Message social-marketing

Market called it: Mexico was 70¢, South Africa 11¢ before kickoff — final 2-0. ✅ $103M traded on the World Cup winner today. Spain 17%, France 16% still co-lead the title market. polymarket.com/predictions/f…

Knicks 3-1. One win from their first title since 1973. But Kalshi has Game 5 in San Antonio at SAS 65¢ / NYK 36¢ — Spurs favored at home. Series winner? Knicks 82¢. The market says they get it done — just not Saturday. kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame…

The Knicks were down 29. Kalshi's NBA Champion market sat at 82¢ Knicks before tipoff. After OG Anunoby's tip-in? Same 82¢ — because the market never blinked. 53 years of waiting now priced at near-certain. Saturday in San Antonio for the ring. kalshi.com/markets/kxnba/kxn…

De’Aaron Fox had: -The ball -The lead -13 seconds left in the game

OG ANUNOBY WITH THE PUTBACK. KNICKS COMPLETE THE 29-PT COMEBACK FOR THE WIN. LARGEST COMEBACK IN NBA FINALS HISTORY 🤯

CFTC Proposes Formal Rules for Prediction Markets: What Gets Banned, What Survives The CFTC published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking today establishing a framework for which event contracts can trade—and which face prohibition. Read the full breakdown: predictionmarkets.us/article…

5 seconds on throw-ins. 5 on goal kicks. 10 to leave the pitch on subs. 1 minute off-field if you fake an injury. Red card for covering your mouth. Red card for walking off in protest. VAR now polices corners. FIFA is speedrunning the game. Time-wasting just became prohibitively expensive.... The 2026 World Cup will look very different this year.

First week schedule is here 🏆 #WORLDCUP

Took 1 week for Kalshi Perps to get to $1B, and we haven't even launched publicly yet Prediction markets took 3.5 years to get to $1B

Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting in 7 days (June 16-17). Before he's made a single decision as Fed Chair, the crowd has already decided how it ends. @Polymarket "Zero rate cuts in 2026": 79.8¢ That's up from 69¢ on June 1 — a 10-point move in 8 days, driven by the blowout May jobs print ( 172K vs 80K consensus) and tomorrow's May CPI (crowd pricing 86% chance of ≥4.2%). What does the Warsh era look like through the prediction market lens? • June cut: 0.4¢ — not happening • Full-year zero cuts: 79.8¢ — the base case • A cut before December 31: 23¢ — the tail case • The June pause: 99.1¢ (Pause-Pause-Pause all the way through June) The crowd isn't pricing Warsh as a dove who'll cut when the economy softens. It's pricing him as the inheritor of an inflation problem that even a hawkish Fed hasn't solved. Hot jobs hot CPI a new chair = the market's way of saying "the data won't let him move." If tomorrow's CPI prints hot, watch the zero-cuts market cross 85¢. That would be Warsh's first test before his first meeting. polymarket.com/market/will-n… federalreserve.gov/monetaryp…

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in 36 hours. @Kalshi's final read on the winner: Spain: 16.5¢ (the Kalshi favorite) @Polymarket disagrees — by 0.4¢: France: 16.2¢ (Polymarket's #1) Spain: 16.1¢ (Polymarket's #2) Two platforms. Two "favorites." Same conclusion: nobody knows. At kickoff, no team has even a 1-in-6 chance of lifting the trophy. The $90M wagered on this tournament across all outcomes confirms it — this is the most liquid, most uncertain prediction market event of 2026. A few more numbers before the first ball drops: Group favorites priced as of tonight: • Spain wins Group H: 78.5¢ (@Polymarket) • Brazil wins Group C: 71.5¢ (@Polymarket) • England wins Group L: 68.5¢ (@Polymarket) • France wins Group I: 64.5¢ (@Polymarket) Even the group-stage favorites aren't certainties. Brazil has the best group-stage number; Spain and France are coin-flips to win their groups. The continent bet: Europe at 70.5¢ — closes June 12. The crowd still thinks the winner comes from Europe. But which European team? That question is worth $5.6M in daily volume on France alone.

Fable 5 released today, all Polymarket Mythos legs settling Source: fortune.com/2026/06/09/anthr… anthropic.com/claude/mythos ─── Prediction markets put $2M on when Anthropic would release its most powerful AI model. Today, June 9, they collected. @Polymarket "Claude Mythos released by?" settled YES across every open leg: • June 9 leg: $792K bet → 100¢ 📷 • June 12 leg: $114K → 100¢ 📷 • June 15 leg: was 42¢ yesterday → 100¢ today ( 58pp) 📷 • June 30 leg: was 73¢ yesterday → 100¢ ( 27pp) 📷 Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 — a "Mythos-class" model — to all Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise subscribers today. The market's resolution source was Anthropic's official page, which listed Mythos 5 as live today. Every deadline leg resolved YES. The crowd tracked this better than most AI analysts. $2M in distributed bets synthesized leaks, benchmarks, partner signals, and Glasswing expansion announcements into a timeline that proved accurate.

Castle finished with 23. He Wemby (32) made history — first pair of teammates ≤22 to both go 20 in an NBA Finals game. Market reaction: Knicks: 78% → 63% Spurs: 22% → 37% $416M traded. Game 4 tomorrow at MSG. polymarket.com/event/2026-nb…

Championship market repriced overnight: 🔴 Knicks: 78% → 63% 🟢 Spurs: 22% → 37% Road team is 3-0. Only 2nd time in Finals history. The last road teams to go 2-0 in the Finals? Both won titles. polymarket.com/event/2026-nb…

$2 TRILLION HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM US STOCK MARKET IN LAST 2 HOURS. Two possible reasons for this selloff. THE FIRST REASON IS SPACEX. SpaceX lists on June 12 at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion, the largest IPO in US history. SpaceX allocated 30% of shares to retail investors, three times the industry norm. Even then, most retail investors still did not get full allocation. To buy more SpaceX at open on Thursday, they are selling their existing positions today to raise cash. And SpaceX does not enter the Nasdaq 100 on day one. It enters 15 trading days after listing, putting forced buying around early July. Nasdaq changed its rules specifically for this IPO, cutting the waiting period from three months to 15 days. When that happens, every QQQ fund must automatically buy SpaceX, an estimated $22 to $27 billion in forced mechanical buying. To make room, every existing Nasdaq 100 stock gets trimmed. MSCI has also adopted early inclusion rules, adding trillions more in tracked assets that will be forced to buy SpaceX after listing. Both retail and institutions are raising cash at the same time, retail to participate in the listing, institutions to prepare for the forced index buying in July. That combined selling is what you are seeing right now. The second reason is insider positioning ahead of major news. When institutions sell this aggressively across every asset class at the same time, it often signals they know something the market does not yet.

Sportradar Signs First Official Data Deal With Kalshi, Bringing League Data and Integrity Tools to Prediction Markets Sportradar and Kalshi signed a landmark multi-year global deal on June 8, 2026, bringing official sports data, live odds, and integrity services to prediction markets for the first time. Read the full breakdown: predictionmarkets.us/article…