S&P 500 SENTIMENT
Coming into today, inverse ETF volume had hit 42% of spec total. Without a broader negative catalyst, this is where pullbacks historically stop.
ICYMI NEW POD: Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive
We Cover:
🔸 Trump market management
🔸 Peak hawkishness?
🔸 Asymmetric rates trade
🔸 Will AI politics hit markets?
@Tyler_Neville_@qthomp@fejau_inc
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook
08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap
12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds
17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed
21:48 Mag Loses Leadership
28:54 The AI Capex Risk
30:17 The Best Rates Trade
34:20 Policy Powers The AI War
38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?
43:52 The AI Access Divide
50:34 The Centralization Trade
Dispersion trade is unwinding today.
This is healthy but will hurt the retail YOLO call buyers.
Beware the sale of delta by brokers into the end of the day.
The Kospi down -5% kicked it off and the yen thru 160.
Beware the carry trade….
We are experiencing the first bear market in network hashrate in Bitcoin's history.
This is the longest stretch without a new network hashrate ATH in the ASIC era.
~258 days since the last ATH and still ~25% below the peak.
I wrote about this last month: x.com/alphazeta/status/20539…
2/ $BTC has dipped below the median holder’s breakeven level for the first time since Dec 2022.
It now sits within a broader support cluster: Median Realized Price at $64.1K, and the 200WMA at $61.7K.
Only ~7% of Bitcoin’s history has been spent below this Median MVRV level.
Yesterday marked the 11th straight day of Bitcoin ETF outflows, the longest streak since launch (beating Jan 2026’s 10-day run). The last 10 days saw the biggest BTC outflow ever (-41,702 BTC), though only the 3rd biggest in dollar terms (-$3.12bn).
Hyperliquid, a decentralized crypto platform, is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The exchange has emerged this year as a go-to spot for Wall Street’s weekend warriors. on.wsj.com/4dG678Q
What it means for the Korean economy and people when Samsung and SK Hynix are about to pay $430 BILLION in taxes in FY26-28.
That's half the Korean public debt.
Boomers absolutely killing it. On top of buying houses for cheap and indices pre covid, now all the Unc’s who worked at IBM Dell HP etc. getting one last big pump into retirement.
Kinda wild how after everything good that happened for Bitcoin this past cycle in terms of ETFs/lending offerings/liquid derivatives it has once again found itself as a non-consensus under owned asset. Time is a flat circle. Quantum/DAT fears are unlikely to persist forever.