Never really got to explain my reasoning for my $SIVB short - but suffice it to say now if you marked their holdings to market their book value would be negative

The risk of the government deciding that a model is too dangerous should only add to the reasons why open source models running on local hardware can be a reasonable alternative.

Threadguy reveals Hyperliquid was the only venue on earth that didn't break during the SpaceX IPO "What Hyperliquid pulled off on the SpaceX pre-IPO was absolutely incredible. So much volume, so much OI, the market was so liquid, and it predicted the price almost perfectly. The last quote that came out was 150, and within 10 minutes of the IPO it was at 175. It was wild how accurate it was." "And here's the crazy part. The moment the IPO went live, Robinhood was down, Coinbase was down, Bybit had to refund everybody that participated, Binance had to refund everybody that participated, and Hyperliquid was the only venue on the planet with absolutely no problems. Very impressive tech performance on the biggest IPO in history."

I know everyone hated this because stocks should go up in a straight line forever, but it’s actually a good thing the market has had some weakness and a chance to revisit the 50 day. Building up the wall of worry to take it down is an integral part of continued bull markets.

The knicks saved the stock market

In previous cycles, consulting astrologer girlfriends, toll-free psychics and Etsy witches was something that only happened after index drawdowns of 15% or more. How things have changed…

I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.

Is AAOI really still $175…

Entire timeline wrt Fable rn

Imagine some North Korean hacker stumbling upon this solution

I think we’ve reached the point where normal people can’t really determine whether new models are better than previous ones. Like Fable doesn’t seem that much better to me, but every 150 IQ person I know is like “wow the singularity came sooner than I thought”.

Give me some 800v FUD baby Nothing changes at the rack level. above 200kw you can't do 54v without taking up ridiculous amounts of rack space

Dan has been a friend of mine since I found his bank commentary on Twitter during the SVB fallout. Minerva has been a super interesting project to watch take off.

Now I’m kind of curious if there’s signal here. We could create the next expert network. We could call it SeekingAlphaArrangements.

This was the next assignment we were going to give to analyst #3 to investigate but he said he’d rather go back to Iran

Bad day to be a Situational Awareness hater

TSMC fumbles Copackaged optics for the Nth time like some fucking donkeys and now the whole industry is limping towards NPO, and the pod bros who price the entire AI TAM off Nvidia’s BOM line items still can’t actually explain what the problem is. So let me do the engineering for you, since clearly nobody on here will. The bottleneck was never can you make light go through a waveguide. It’s all fucking thermals which is downstream of packaging. Specifically, how do you get a photonic engine onto the same substrate as a switch ASIC or XPU without your yield falling off a cliff and your reliability failing. TSMC’s answer is CoWoS where they bolt everything onto one big monolithic silicon interposer. Cute, until you hit the reticle limit and start duct-taping interposers together (CoWoS-S, then -R, then -L, soon -PleaseStop). Every chiplet and HBM stack you add to that single interposer compounds your defect probability and one bad die leads to a five-figure package going into the dumpster. CoWoS is thermally retarded and the whole industry knows this and it’s why capacity “can’t expand” and Jensen is acting like a bouncer in the front of a club choosing who gets pass the velvet rope. There is ONLY one company that will make copackaged optics work and expand in the rack… it’s not Lumentum, it’s not Coherent, it’s fucking INTELLLL. Intel’s EMIB gets rid of a giant reticle limited interposer and replaces it with a tiny silicon bridge that does the high-density coupling locally, exactly where you need it. You localize the hard part and the thermals in one area and your yield is ridiculously high. Comparing EMIB & CoWoS is so funny cause EMIB is north of 95% yield with like 12 reticle size equivalent package while CoWoS falls off a cliff after 5.5 reticles it’s that bad…now imagine adding thermally sensitive photonics. People don’t know this but Intel has been doing silicon photonics in-house for ~25 years... In 2024 they showed an Optical I/O chiplet doing 2 Tbps bidirectionally at ~5 pJ/bit, with the PIC and EIC co-packaged right against the ASIC and it’s all because of EMIB. And even more critically than that, they’ve actually run the fiber-attach and reliability/test flow to JEDEC-grade standards already, which everyone hand-waves until their links flap in production. My prediction is clear: Intel will capture over 90% of the copackaged silicon photonics market in the next five years because there is NO ALTERNATIVE.

I can say that Mizuho’s numbers are not irrational at all — they are actually quite reasonable. Access Citrini’s institutional report here: citrini.com/contact

Disturbingly high incidence of the output from this being teletubbies holding shotguns which really makes you wonder about whats in the training data

Gonna be pain this week.