Ethiopia claimed Thursday that forces in the northern Tigray region were preparing an offensive against the federal government in the coming days, raising fears of a return to war. u.afp.com/Sz3q

Mogadishu is on the verge of renewed clashes. Turkish-trained Haramcad forces are being deployed to the Green Zone area near Mogadishu's airport, a source told us. As darkness falls over the city, reports indicate that large numbers of heavily armed personnel have been deployed to several locations near the Jazeera Hotel and in areas where opposition leaders are residing. This come amid heightened political tensions and growing concerns over the security situation in the Somali capital.

Ukraine’s middle strike interdiction campaign and strikes on the Chongar bridge have increased the importance of the Kerch bridge for sustaining logistics to Crimea. I suspect Ukraine will try to target the bridge with Ukrainian-made drones or missiles, but Germany’s Taurus would be a natural choice if Ukraine received it. Berlin has leverage if it wants to try to bring Russia to the negotiating table. kyivindependent.com/sending-…

Congolese, Burundian, and FDLR networks are shifting the axis of confrontation southward toward the Hauts-Plateaux of South Kivu. The emerging objective is Minembwe… as a rear base for renewed operations against Rwanda.” thegreatlakeseye.com/post?s=… via @TheGreatLakesE1

1/ Russia is doomed unless it takes over not only Ukraine but also Armenia, Belarus, and Georgia, argues warblogger Alexei Zhivov. In a notable diatribe on Channel One Sebastopol, he declares that the West will tear Russia apart unless it 'reunites' its former empire. ⬇️

NEW: The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to reject peace negotiations with Ukraine despite recent repeated Ukrainian offers for direct negotiations. NATO forces downed a drone over Latvia for the first time on June 8 after Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems diverted it into Latvian airspace. Russian forces launched 155 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Will Ukraine launch a large-scale offensive in 2026? Kyiv possesses a powerful tool with its current mid-range drone edge, but using it to fuel a massive new offensive is quite unlikely (for now). While technological advancements are slowly bringing maneuver warfare back to life, Ukraine’s severe infantry deficit dictates a strategy of small, localized counters over high-risk gambles. The historical trajectory of the war dictates caution. The dazzling operational victories of 2022 demonstrated Ukraine's potential, but the frustrating gridlock of the 2023 campaign serves as a stark reminder of how difficult peer-level offensives have become. Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia has also failed to execute a genuinely successful large-scale offensive at any point after 2022, proving that neither side has found a way to truly break the front. Ukraine’s ability to shock the enemy remains intact, as demonstrated by the Kursk incursion. It was an initial triumph that acted as a major symbolic success, reminding the world that Ukraine can still make bold moves when it catches Moscow off-guard. Ultimately, though, Kyiv could not afford to commit the sheer manpower required to advance more or keep the area permanently. Instead, smaller, localized counters in places like Kupiansk and the southern front have become the preferred method for proving that Ukrainian tactical capabilities remain sharp. Executing these attacks has become a nightmare in the FPV drone era, which punishes massed mechanized movements and infantry instantly. The emerging edge in mid-range drones and UGVs could tilt the scales back toward maneuver warfare by suppressing enemy positions and securing supply lanes. Yet, we should not expect a return to grand, sweeping operations in 2026. Ukraine is operating under tight resource constraints and a clear deficit in infantry, while Russia maintains an enormous reservoir of manpower and equipment despite Ukraine’s highly successful mid-range drone interdiction campaign. While localized opportunities will certainly be exploited, a massive, overarching offensive is likely still too risky for Ukraine to execute for now. Let’s see if that changes in the future

Seven people were killed, while many others were injured in a clash between the recently proscribed JAAC and the police on Sunday in the city of Rawalakot in the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

As Israel comes under Houthi fire once again, it is worth noting that Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro is expected to visit Israel next week. Israel 🇮🇱 has reportedly considered establishing a military base in Somaliland to help counter the Houthis 🇾🇪.

The military regime has reportedly massacred more than 40 civilians including children, women and monks during a 20-day scorched-earth campaign in Magwe Region’s Pakokku Township within sight of the UNESCO heritage town of Bagan. bit.ly/49LlgmU

Russia has now lost four elections in a row: in Romania, Moldova, Hungary, and now Armenia. What's more, no one expected the margin in Armenia to be so large. This suggests that Armenians have lost faith in Russia and are distancing themselves from it. I do not believe Russia will take military action against Armenia. The military base poses no threat, and Russia itself is exhausted by the war it is waging against Ukraine. Through its heroic resistance, Ukraine is also giving other nations and states a chance to break free from Russia. I believe Georgia may be next in attempting to remove pro-Russian forces. Armenia's break with Russia will strengthen Turkey and its influence in the region. That is good news. In addition, sources believe that the defeat in Armenia could be used by the Kremlin to oust the so-called "Armenian lobby" within the Russian leadership: to weaken, remove its members from office, and cut them off from financial flows. The main names mentioned are Mikhail Mishustin, Russian prime minister, and Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister. Russia continues to lose ground and its influence.