A freedom-seeking global citizen
Joined April 2020
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
Read this book it has a good framework to understand catalysts and context. It is very old book
How to know at what price the catalyst will be priced in.
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
May 29
Quick update on the general market...
1. This is one of the more impressive lockout rallies I've seen, at least when looking at the Nasdaq.
2. Sentiment has remained very contained, almost impressively so and still very constructive.
3. Almost no distribution, and no meaningful distribution (heavy volume selling days where NYSE or Nasdaq close down >1%)
4. Breadth. While many are saying breadth is terrible it is pretty consistent with what we've seen over the last number of years, namely that the environment is more selective. NYSE A/D line looks like it wants to confirm upon a breakout and the NYSE Comp is tracing out a pretty nice consolidation.
Conclusion: 'Well, this is a bull market, you know!'
-Mr Partridge aka 'Old Turkey'
(Reminiscences of a Stock Operator)
May 12
A few things I'm watching assuming this pullback in the general market lasts more than a day or two.
-is there clear distribution vs rotation. Some tech stocks definitely should pause or pullback but does $ rotate or just head to the sidelines?
-Does the rally broaden out at all if we resolve higher? I don't think we get a massive broadening but some would be good. $IWM pulling back to prior breakout for a retest would be a good sign. NYSE A/D line is something I have my eye on too at least if we make new all time highs in the coming days/weeks I'd like to see that confirm. The Dow getting in gear also wouldn't hurt.
-Sentiment. We already have this working in our favor but sentiment staying skeptical/negative or bears vs bulls increasing during this pause/pullback would be optimal.
-how do the leaders act? There were a LOT of names that ripped off the lows, many of which doubled in a very short period of time. Do these names base and act healthy or just splinter and fall apart on balance?
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New podcast on sales - Sell the Truth.
00:00 Be Credible
03:18 “Yes, And”
04:31 Selfish Honesty
05:37 Charisma Is Confidence Love
07:56 Don’t Manage, Lead
11:16 Hunt Together
14:51 Feed Your (Good) Obsessions
18:57 Sell the Truth
21:07 Good Deal or No Deal
23:39 The Age of Nonlinear Returns
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
May 6
Stocks are pushing to all-time highs while sentiment is getting more bearish—bulls down, bears up. That’s a sign of disbelief. Investors are fighting the rally, which is a classic Lockout Rally condition. minervini.com
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
Apr 17
I think it was Livermore who said 'markets will do what will fool the largest majority'. The action over the past 8-10 sessions has definitely been a good example. I was skeptical of a 'V' shaped recovery but definitely not calling for an 'I' shaped one that is for sure. This is certainly the fastest move to new highs from a market correction in my near 20 yr memory.
The good news is there is still a lot of uncertainty (clear wall of worry) in place for now so looking at this next few weeks to see how we digest very closely and whether we get some handles & a proliferation of new ideas.
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
Feb 27
What would be the catalyst to start this trade?
• Long equal-weight S&P (RSP) / Short cap-weighted S&P (SPY)
• Long S&P ex-Top-10 basket / Short Top-10 mega caps
• Long IWM / Short QQQ
• Long cyclicals (XLI, XLF, XLE, XLB) / Short AI-heavy tech
• Long value (IVE) / Short growth (IVW)
• Short Mag-7 basket outright
• Buy put spreads on QQQ or mega caps
• Long breadth expansion via RSP calls / Short QQQ calls
• Long small-cap futures / Short Nasdaq futures
• Long financials / Short semis (XLF vs SOXX)
Feb 27
Wild chart from DE Shaw: the
S&P 490 now has a beta of only 0.78 to the S&P 500 deshaw.com/library/concentra…
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
Feb 27
The average impact of war on the stock market is not what you might expect.
By the time they start the market usually has priced them in for the majority of them.
Especially the ones that have a lead up are not as explosive as you’d expect.
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The purpose of crypto is to build a code-based order, because the rules-based order is unfortunately collapsing.
That code-based order covers some of what international law once protected. It guarantees property rights, smart contracts, rule-of-code, privacy, secure voting, and user accounts across borders. Even in the face of debanking and denaturalization, the code-based order means you retain your onchain currency and onchain identity.
It is true that the crypto networks that buttress the code-based order are supported in significant part by finance and lotteries. But all 50 states of the US are also supported by finance and lotteries. The question is whether the world gets something better, on balance, for that cost.
As nationalism and socialism rise, the code-based order ensures that international capitalism continues. Anyone from anywhere has equality of opportunity on the Internet. You can sign a smart contract across borders with someone without knowing (or needing to know) their race, religion, accent, ancestry, or other likely irrelevant attributes.
Similarly, as more companies leave failing states like Delaware and California…the code-based order will protect these corporate refugees. The entities themselves and all their contracts can now be put onchain. They can dock in country X and move to country Y at the press of a button. Redomiciliation becomes as common as incorporation.
Moreover, as the politically disfavored emigrate from communist states, the code-based order also protects their property and identity via cryptography. And, if all goes well, it also adds a layer of unbreakable privacy.
In short: the West is entering a period of failing states just as the East sees the rise of the all-powerful state. The balance to both of these is the code-based order that Satoshi laid the foundations for.
That’s what cryptocurrency was built for. If and when your state fails, or turns against you, the Internet will be there for you.
Feb 21
I think crypto is in the weirdest spot its been since I joined the space in 2017
Beyond speculating and gambling its hard to see how it adds meaningful value to people's lives and enough time has passed that you start to wonder if/when that won't be the case anymore
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In 1971, money changed from a natural system (gold) to a socialist system (fiat).
Crypto is tech to replace socialist money with a free-market system.
Market systems are inherently competitive and as tech evolves, new monies will continue to emerge to challenge existing ones.
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
22 Oct 2025
Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape is changing as Options OI begins to rival Futures. Markets are shifting toward defined-risk and volatility strategies, meaning options flows, rather than futures liquidations, are becoming a more influential force in shaping price action.
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12 Oct 2025
RT @PeterLBrandt: Greetings crypto traders whose Friday was not a cheerful day. I need to tell you that there will be better tomorrows. Whi…
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Crypto is…
Desperate gamblers chasing their first bag.
Investors funding the buildout of the global casino.
Bankers hypnotizing the masses to collect their vig.
…all meaningless and ephemeral without the cypherpunks, who defend the dream of encrypted and unstoppable cash.
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
10 Oct 2025
How does @HLInvest know Bitcoin has no intrinsic value?
There is a lot of nuance here
Bitcoin intrinsically enables P2P electronic payments, without a credit relationship with a financial intermediary. That property could be quite valuable
hl.co.uk/investment-services…
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
10 Sep 2025
The tragic murder of Charles Kirk has pushed us further down a dangerous path. It’s another example of how division, chaos, and media-fueled outrage are tearing at the fabric of our society.
But let his death not be in vain. If anything good can come from this, may it be the outrage that finally acts as a catalyst for change — a moment that forces us to demand accountability, reject propaganda, and return to truth.
Because without change, the cycle of violence and fear will only deepen — and that’s a future none of us should accept.
The media has become a vicious cycle of division.
They create conflict, add fuel to the fire, and pit us against each other. Then they sensationalize the chaos — the shootings, the killings, the worst of humanity — and profit from the ratings and clicks it generates.
This isn’t journalism; it’s propaganda. It’s disgusting. News needs to go back to being news — facts, truth, accountability — not a machine designed to divide.
And the damage goes deeper: this cycle is eroding our First Amendment freedoms and opportunities for discourse.
By manufacturing fear and silencing dissent through intimidation, the media makes people afraid to express themselves, afraid to speak truth. That is very, very dangerous — because when free speech dies, freedom dies with it.
My heart goes out to Charles Kirk’s family. I’m deeply sorry for their loss — and ashamed that humanity has digressed to a place where people must fear for their safety simply for voicing an opinion.
This is not freedom. This is not the America our First Amendment was meant to protect. And until we demand better, tragedies like this will continue to silence voices and weaken the very foundation of our liberty
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Winkle A.P. retweeted
5 Sep 2025
The only data the market truly embraces as bullish is benign data—not too hot, not too cold. Historically, bull markets sustain themselves during moderate, stable economic periods—what we call a Goldilocks Economy.
Strong data → signals no rate cuts.
Weak data → revives recession fears.
Mild, steady data → the “just right” scenario that keeps the market climbing.
In short, the best data for the market is the kind that doesn’t move the needle too far in either direction. minervini.com
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