With significant external threats to NOAA, I figured it may be pertinent to discuss what TC forecasting looked like a mere half century ago. All images used in this thread come from the NHC — I will be focusing on 1974’s Hurricane Fifi, at 00z on September 19th.

No real questions as to what will be driving the global circulation come this winter:

Incredible east Pacific westerly wind event projected in AIFS centered around June 13. The absolute strength of those westerlies won't be like those of the west Pacific weeks ago, (so less cooling evaporation), but the east Pacific thermocline will drop like a rock.

Overnight, convection associated with this feature was able to push upshear and tried to align the tilted vortex. The initial burst of convection has since collapsed due to continued ventilation, but with favorable thermodynamics, this shouldn’t be an issue for long.

I've added a long-awaited feature: microwave imagery! Now you can see the structure of tropical cyclones from the GMI, SSMIS, and AMSR2 sensors! It's all on the satellite page, in the new microwave tab. Here's how #Jangmi looks:

Some random thoughts on the new era: As AI steadily creeps into our work in the fields of meteorology and programming, there is an inevitable uneasiness associated with "losing control" and "becoming obsolete" as human developers and scientists. It's a fear I've occasionally felt, anyway, and I know I'm not alone. I used quotes because, while these are valid feelings, I don't think they must be reality. The process of performing work is evolving as agents do more of it, but the impetus for that work is unchanged. We are the driving force of inspiration and curiosity that births our work in the first place. Taking ownership is the way to preserve autonomy and hard skills, and we're entering an era where that must be a personal, conscious choice. If you're a student, you must pursue knowledge and stay hungry, lest silicon crutches leave you with passing grades but no ability. Harness AI to enhance your learning process, but never yield your understanding to it. Only you can ensure that. If you're a programmer, AI is a dramatic accelerant - use it! It is the future of software. But insist on retaining ownership of your projects. Be a nosy manager, a steering influence on design decisions, and an intentional critic. The dopamine hit of pressing <Enter> will eventually wrest authorship from you otherwise. If you're a scientist, AI is either expert-level in your field or will be someday. But science is still advanced by PIs, not AIs. Curiosity about the universe is a defining human trait - keep your curious hands on the rudder. Find the cutting edge and ride it; chances are you will advance the boundary with AI assistance far more than AI will alone. Much about this new era is intimidating, but also exciting. I say grab it all by the horns and harness these capabilities for doing good in the world and your own life. Just choose continuously to protect your own sovereignty and humanity. Life is ours to live. #NotWrittenByABot

Does anyone know what controls when the Google DeepMind ensemble starts clustering storms by invest as opposed to their (not great) internal system grouping? There’s been a WPAC invest for a few cycles, but this seemingly hasn’t manifested in the file yet.

TC-ATLAS now features real-time subseasonal and seasonal monitoring pages with interactive diagnostics. Compare how the ongoing evolution differs from historical events and discover their impacts on hurricane activity here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/T…

The first Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook of 2026 is out. Good news: No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf. Today (May 15) marks the start of daily Tropical Weather Outlooks, issued through Nov 30 at 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. Stay informed all season long: hurricanes.gov