Let's do the math the
@MorganStanley analyst couldn't:
According to his own calculation:
$7 PT Ă 381.27M shares = $2.67B implied market cap.
What
$MARA actually holds (per Q1 2026 SEC filing):
35,303 BTC â $2.82B
Cash â $80M
**Total liquid: $2.9B
Even gross of debt, Morgan Stanley's entire valuation is less than MARA's BTC stack alone.
After netting $2.3B in convertible debt (already reduced 30% via March buyback), MS still has to justify giving ZERO credit to:
*1,900 MW of operating power capacity
*19 data centers across 4 continents
*Exaion (64% of EDF subsidiary â French nuclear-powered HPC)
*Long Ridge ($1.5B acquisition adding 505 MW $144M annualized EBITDA, closing H2 2026)
*Starwood JV (90% of MARA's owned sites in active tenant discussions per Q1 call)
Same Morgan Stanley values
$CIFR operating contracted MWs at ~$19M each.
$MARA's MWs at the $7 PT? ~$1.4M each.
~13x discount for the same physical electrons.
Different rationale: CIFR has signed hyperscaler leases. MARA hasn't yet.
Which brings us to MS's own admission.
Per MARA IR
@RobSamuelsIR, quoting directly from the MS analyst's note today:
"We value pipeline MWs at a 10% chance of electrification until the partnership results in a deal."
90% written off. Before a single signature.
This is the same Morgan Stanley that told clients Bitcoin's intrinsic value could be $0 in 2017.
Today they run
$MSBT the cheapest spot BTC ETF on the market at 0.14% and bought 430 BTC on launch day.
The bank long Bitcoin is underweight the equity holding 35,303 of them.