Centrum || Cement
Near-term pain, improving risk-reward
We believe recent weakness in cement stocks reflects concerns around Q2FY27 profitability stemming from elevated costs, lower-than-expected price hikes, lokely softness in demand and pricing due to monsoon, maintenance shutdowns and negative operating leverage.
While Q2FY27 is likely to be challenging, our analysis suggests margin pressure in Q1FY27 should be relatively moderate, supported by price upticks and full impact of higher fuel costs likely to be more pronounced in Q2FY27.
We also believe a significant portion of the near-term risk is already reflected in expectations, with Consensus FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates across our coverage universe revised down by ~11% and ~7%, respectively, versus pre-war levels.
The Russia-Ukraine fuel shock offers a useful case study, highlighting that cement sector valuations can begin stabilizing well before profitability recovers.
With cement stocks under pressure and sector sentiment remaining cautious, we believe much of the near-term uncertainty is already reflected in stock prices, improving the risk-reward for select names.
At current levels, we see attractive entry opportunities, with UltraTech Cement (UTCEM IN, BUY, TP Rs 13,691) and JK Cement (JKCE IN, BUY, TP Rs 5,990) as our top picks.
#Cement #Indiastocks #Investment #StocksAnalysis #StocksUpdates