1) Prediction markets can be wrong and may not even be calibrated (
osf.io/preprints/osf/6g5zq). If the market is wrong we usually blame the market, not the election.
2) The reason voters have birthdates like 1/1/1900 is because they have been registered so long they didn't need to provide a birthdate when they first registered, or have another reason for a placeholder birthdate. They are not 126 years old.
3) Me pointing out (1) and (2) does not mean I endorse California election administration policy. We can be (and I am) frustrated about how California administers elections without endorsing ridiculous fraud claims.
What's happening in LA is extremely abnormal. How did Spencer Pratt go from a 77% chance of advancing to now a 0.5% chance?
California is now blocking the Feds from checking into the election.
Prior to the election in May, Governor Newsom signed SB 73. This law, effective immediately before the June 2 primary, prohibits unauthorized access, disruption, modification, or seizure of voter rolls, voter lists, or certified voting technology by law enforcement (including federal agents) without a court order or specific state election law investigation.
GIVE THE PEOPLE TRANSPARENCY