Believer ✝ | Forever Unemployed Thanks to Bitcoin - Some say I live the life of Riley. Maybe I do but I don't know Riley.
Joined March 2022
- Tweets 47,526
- Following 996
- Followers 1,255
- Likes 67,948
533 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
13 Dec 2024
@elonmusk thinks I'm a bot. Maybe I'm living in a simulation and I am a bot who thinks he's not a bot. Come on Elon. Fix this crap and give me a real robot.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
This will be the hill I die on, if need be.
For Bitcoin to reach a wider audience, we need people like @saylor and his vision. I'm one of those Bitcoiner's who doesn't forget his contribution to the mission, and am happy to give time time.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
Radio Silence from Saylor and Strategy
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JustStackSATs retweeted
An excellent perspective 👏
As per usual, the noise about Strategy is deafening right now.
Many people who have zero idea what they are talking about are calling for an imminent death spiral, likely influenced by low IQ doomer slop articles that were written for clickbait engagement purposes.
Let's be objective about how things stand right now by looking at the entirety of the capital structure and compare it to the BTC bottom in 2022.
2022:
Bitcoin price: $15,760
MSTR BTC reserve: 132,500 BTC
Net senior claims on balance sheet: $2.356 billion
Senior claims in BTC: 149,503 BTC
Basic shares: 115.48m
Common equity Bitcoin exposure: -14,700 sats/share
Now:
Bitcoin price: $63,511
MSTR BTC reserve: 846,842 BTC
Net senior claims: $21.1 billion
Senior claims in BTC: 332,226 BTC
Basic shares: 356.32m
CEBE: 144,400 sats/share
At the 2022 bottom, BTC-only CEBE was NEGATIVE.
Yes, the residual for MSTR holders was NEGATIVE, and the stock never went to $0. It traded between $10-$20 near the bottom as the market was pricing in future potential.
The fiat senior claims were larger than the Bitcoin reserve when measured in BTC.
Today, even with the giant preferred stack, CEBE is roughly 144k sats per basic share.
Gross BPS went from about 114.7k sats to 237.7k sats, while senior-claim drag went from 129.5k sats/share to 93.2k sats/share.
So Strategy went from “common equity is underwater on a pure BTC residual basis” to “common still has a six-figure sats residual after debt and preferred.”
It was WAY WORSE four years ago.
If Strategy survived 2022, they're going to survive 2026.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
One of the Best SNL Sketches ever!
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Strive's share price is down 85% year over year. The company is selling stock to buy bitcoin. It trades at a ~90% premium to the bitcoin NAV. And the CEO says its benchmark is bitcoin. His benchmark for investing your money is what you could own today. Sell stock, buy bitcoin!
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probably defi guys, magical thinkers about leverage... robinhood caps leverage at 2x. though they do have volatility and concentration related variable maintenance margin. so they could be pre-emptively squeezing $STRC margin requirements - @RobinhoodApp users could comment.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
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As an analyst, I get many things wrong.
Reflecting on incorrect predictions is essential to get better.
In 2022, many thought "you can't taper a ponzi" when the Fed tried to raise rates to 1%. I thought 1% would be easy but 3.5% would be death. I was right, and then very wrong.
It turns out they made it all the way to 5.5% and THEN managed to achieve a soft landing, which many thought was impossible. Stocks had a tough 2022 but have DOUBLED since then.
Get things wrong and then adjust. Study the price, because that matters more than where you think things should trade.
Invest using dynamic analysis, not anchored narratives.
GM
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JustStackSATs retweeted
Not good, effective rate at 13.3%.
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I genuinely think bitcoin sentiment is worse now than it was during the FTX collapse.
Back then, nearly every asset was struggling, and the cause was obvious: inflation / rising rates / brutal macro backdrop.
This feels different, like a growing belief that the narratives that convinced people to buy Bitcoin have broken down
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JustStackSATs retweeted
Bitcoin only.
This simple two word sentence proves itself over and over and over again.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
There was this ship that hit an iceberg 100 years ago.
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Ladies, are you paying attention yet?
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The only "vote" that counts in the end is where you place your demand.
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JustStackSATs retweeted
The "News Channel" that gets 70% of its money from Big Pharma doesn't tell you that the guy they're bringing on to criticize RFK's policies is on the Board of Pfizer.
Imagine watching CNBC and think you're getting the "news".
You're getting brainwashed by news whores.
31 Jan 2025
CNBC decides it’s a good idea to trot out Scott Gotlieb to criticize RFK Jr. and introduces him as former head of FDA but fails to disclose that he is currently on the board of directors for Pfizer…disgusting. I find it interesting this wasn’t disclosed in his intro by Becky. #BloodMoney
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JustStackSATs retweeted
The only relevant question is, are you going to be able to dump your coins?
And the answer is, probably not because BIP-110 supporters don't actually believe in their fork enough to buy them.
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