Founder/CEO of ModernIR and Market Structure EDGE LLC. Invented Market Structure Analytics for IR. Expert on equity market structure.

Joined August 2015
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This is quantitative Demand/Supply data via @EdgeStructure for $SNDK YTD 2026. Jan-Feb (mnthly) opex and Apr opex to May opex were VERY strong. The current period is shaping up more like Feb opex-Mar opex.
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Thank you, @Spus and @TripleDTrader!
We were joined by Tim Quast, Founder at Market Structure Edge on PreMarket Prep this morning. We talked Demand vs. Supply Cycles and covered a bunch of tickers, check it out. $MRVL $AMD $MU $CRWV $CEG $META $AVGO $ZS $GIS @_TimQuast @Spus @TripleDTrader
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Back from Chicago and seeing my @NIRI_National friends. @JayWoods3, great job! Thought for the day: Passives buy a SpaceX every month in US stocks. Actives sell half a SpaceX on outflows. They're buying this IPO (so had to sell first). And Passives aren't. Danger. @SullyCNBC
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It's fascinating how the #bubble in the #stockmarket this time is in revenues, not their absence like 1999. The market has been inflated by massive revenues at SUPPLIERS. AI buyers are burning through budgets.
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We talked about $TE Tue, @spus, and I didn't have the data. We've backfilled it now. Great Demand/Supply divergence. When that relationship breaks, take gains.
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As $MU soars today, Demand/Supply is reverting to 5.0. A break below 5.0 is reason to take gains, not chances. The last break after a big 10.0 run occurred in Feb. See what happened. We'll see! A 20% rise is...crazy.
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Tim Quast retweeted
I'll be testifying tomorrow before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets. Here is a link to the livestream and written testimonies. Hearing begins at 2:00pm. financialservices.house.gov/…
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$NVDA Prediction Model ahead of earnings: We ran it two days ahead. The good: diverging Demand/Supply, Demand at 10.0. The bad: The model forecasts near $214, volatility range $199-$250.
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If 90% of volume and the bulk of buy/sell competition for stocks is during market hours, why do companies report earnings ($NVDA) outside market hours? @NIRI_National friends, this one's for you: modernir.com/outside-market-…
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Kudos to our @SteamboatCO friends at World Footbag for making @GMA today in the new #hackysack craze! worldfootbag.com/

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Excerpt from More Money Than God, Sebastian Malaby, on hedge funds: "If markets were dominated by rational investors seeking maximum profits, then efficiency might possibly prevail; but if markets were driven by players with other agendas, there was no reason to expect efficient pricing."
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Today's picture worth a thousand words is the ave price of $SPX stocks Sep 2023 to present, to show that it's the same now as in Nov 2024. And volatility is 3% despite low $VIX. The question is whether $MU, $SNDK et al can overcome this inertia.
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$INTC has become a #meme stock. There's a bug in the NMS called "Short Volume." Stock is created to fill orders. Synthetics like $LINT (up 473% YTD) compound it. This will blow up. I don't know when. ($INTC last had high Short Volume in 2022 and it was rightly bearish).
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Have been in Nashville, with apologies! Look up Jeff Trott, co-writer of many Sheryl Crow hits. Unrelated, this is EIA data on gas prices since about 1992. $4.11 July 2008, over $5 June 2022. And now.
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I should add: Remember what happened in 2008. And what happened in 2022 (worst year for $SPX since 2008, worst year for bonds since...1842?). Might be yet another false correlation.
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