The coolest publicity we could ask for. I’ve been a fan of Money Stuff for years!!! @matt_levine 🤝 @trytrata Public investors: My DMs are open. Funding secured. As always feel free to reach out anonymously. Acceleration coming soon bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Fable 5 (@AnthropicAI) scores 22% and tops the Hedge-Bench leaderboard. Running Fable was roughly 2X more expensive than Opus 4.8 per trial. For an industry where accuracy is mission critical, human judgement isn't going away

Within the finance industry, there is a lack of objective measuring around model capabilities outside of rote mechanical work. We mainly see reliance on anecdotal evidence and a growing amount of fearmongering from more vocal personalities on social media. The purpose of Hedge-Bench is to provide a better measure of model capabilities on higher-level, reasoning-oriented workflows that actually matter to industry practitioners. We intend to update Hedge-Bench to test model releases in the future.

For the Analysts: between the sub-15% pass rate and 80% hallucination rate, your job is very safe

This app is probably the biggest time sink of feeling productive without actually learning anything - self reflection after increasingly lurking on tech twitter for the past 3 months. Will default to touching grass

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Trata is now live on X

when you’re young, you should minimize the degrees of friction between you and serendipity. don’t live 2 hours outside the city to save a few bucks on rent. you’ll miss the last-minute dinners and random meetups that could change your life, and pay back everything you “saved”.

you don't have a discipline problem. you have an environment problem

Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors “I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.” Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market. Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”: “There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.” To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time. But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million. As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it: “Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.” Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate. Video source: @tferriss (2023)

I don’t sleep very much, so I have been really enjoying reading a bunch of dotcom bubble/bust era books. this was written (by a software engineer) about the uselessness of mobile:

Rocking a sick hat @AndrewRangeley

"Nobody is an atheist at 50x leverage" is the realest thing ever written on this app

#bakesomethingpeoplewant @ycombinator @trytrata @garrytan

Never responded @alexanderqchen

Met @rabois while running some errands in NYC today. Actually a pretty nice guy. Thought this kind of thing only happened in SF, pleasantly surprised

Let’s see what the smart folks on hacker news had to say about the original windsurf launch

Super cool to see @trytrata featured in Times Square!