predictooor @getsozu // reachout in dms
Joined December 2023
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satyam retweeted
May 8
what if everything goes right
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Iran airspace closure (May 8) NO at 60-65c, now 77c with 3 days left.
Thesis was simple. Iran was firing missiles at UAE all day with its own airspace fully open. That's the most important datapoint and the market was ignoring it. The UAE/CNN leak and Trump's Fox interview both looked like coordinated deterrence, not operational warning. Governments don't telegraph imminent strikes with conditional language on cable news.
Only thing that changes my view is when the possibility of USA, Israel strikes on Iran increases to more than 50%.
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i was so big YES on april 30 :(
only if polymarket had may 31 market, i would have poured my portfolio in it!
polymarket.com/event/us-esco…
May 3
JUST IN: Trump announces the U.S. will launch “Project Freedom” on Monday to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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trading with @getsozu powered research on new @polymarket account is going really well
since i posted my research it has 2x'd
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Ruben Rocha, Governor of Sinaloa, took a temporary leave of absence. Within 45 minutes on May 2, between 5:00 UTC and 5:45 UTC, the YES price on his Polymarket market rose from 20 cents to 93 cents. An interim governor was being appointed.
I saw the NO side available at 8 cents. The resolution language states the market resolves YES if Rocha ceases to be Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time. Under Mexican constitutional law, a temporary licencia does not remove him from office. He keeps the title while the congress appoints a substitute. This is a procedural step, not a removal.
I viewed the 8 cent NO as mispriced due to the gap between the political situation and the exact contract wording. By the time I returned, NO had moved to 14 cents.
A UMA dispute started right after the initial price jump. Some users argued for YES because Rocha was functionally out. Others said it was too early and that he still held the office under Mexican law.
On May 3 at 0:00 UTC, the market reversed sharply. YES fell from 93 cents back to 20 cents, and NO rose from 8 cents to 80 cents in under an hour.
The actual question was how UMA would interpret a temporary licencia under the resolution criteria.
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Jerome Powell is still Fed Chair.
Kevin Warsh is nominated to replace him.
The question is whether Powell stops being Chair by May 15.
Sounds simple but it depends entirely on the Senate schedule.
Wrote out what actually matters here and polymarket link in comments:
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satyam retweeted
uma rocks works in favor of polymarket and keeps the market resolution fair, unaffected by personal gains
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pedro1414 has launched a memecoin that is pegged to the YES odds of the US x Iran ceasefire extended market and the market has already resolved to NO
Polymarket markets resolve through UMA token votes.
uma.rocks is the largest UMA voter. uma.rocks is a group of Polymarket traders with positions in the markets they vote on.
What just happened:
Clavicular claimed he got a girl pregnant 10 days after meeting her. Polymarket had a market on it. Resolution required a credible claim. He made the claim between bits on a podcast. No test. No doctor. No reporting. 10 days is biologically too early for a confirmed pregnancy test.
Scout is a key uma.rocks member. Scout wrote in the dispute discord that resolving YES "rewards exactly the kind of non-credible claim the rules were written to exclude." Scout was also one of the largest YES holders in the market.
Scout then pushed uma.rocks to vote YES.
The vote by individual users: 70% Too Early, 30% YES. The vote by token weight: 33% Too Early, 67% YES.
67% won. Largest discrepancy between individual voters and token weight in UMA history according to other voters in the discord.
The person who posted first in the evidence rationale for uma.rocks is banned from Polymarket for spoofing.
The price chart is attached. You can see the market move at each moment a uma.rocks member posted their vote direction. Voters were following a price signal set by the same people casting the deciding votes.
Scout was removed from uma.rocks after this. The structure that allowed it is still there.
We're working on something to fix this, open source, if you want to contribute, dm me
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Polymarket markets resolve through UMA token votes.
uma.rocks is the largest UMA voter. uma.rocks is a group of Polymarket traders with positions in the markets they vote on.
What just happened:
Clavicular claimed he got a girl pregnant 10 days after meeting her. Polymarket had a market on it. Resolution required a credible claim. He made the claim between bits on a podcast. No test. No doctor. No reporting. 10 days is biologically too early for a confirmed pregnancy test.
Scout is a key uma.rocks member. Scout wrote in the dispute discord that resolving YES "rewards exactly the kind of non-credible claim the rules were written to exclude." Scout was also one of the largest YES holders in the market.
Scout then pushed uma.rocks to vote YES.
The vote by individual users: 70% Too Early, 30% YES. The vote by token weight: 33% Too Early, 67% YES.
67% won. Largest discrepancy between individual voters and token weight in UMA history according to other voters in the discord.
The person who posted first in the evidence rationale for uma.rocks is banned from Polymarket for spoofing.
The price chart is attached. You can see the market move at each moment a uma.rocks member posted their vote direction. Voters were following a price signal set by the same people casting the deciding votes.
Scout was removed from uma.rocks after this. The structure that allowed it is still there.
We're working on something to fix this, open source, if you want to contribute, dm me
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the first thing we did after getting our account back👇
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How’s your Polymarket run looking?
check now: report.getsozu.xyz
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satyam retweeted
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