DARIO AMODEI JUST SAID THERE'S A 10-25% CHANCE THIS ENDS CIVILIZATION
and when asked directly if Anthropic could be the one to cause it, he doesn't dodge the question
His point isn't that Anthropic itself is the danger. it's the bigger picture - multiple countries, multiple companies, all racing for the same technology with no real coordination between any of them
He compares it to building a safer airline. even if your airline is 10x safer than the rest, you still can't promise zero crashes. but a 25% crash rate is way too high - the entire goal is pushing that number down, not accepting it
so the real position sits between the two extremes people usually assume. not "everything's fine." not "doom is inevitable." more like - this is genuinely dangerous, the danger comes from the race itself, and someone building it carefully beats no one doing that at all
still strange to hear that calculation said out loud by the person at the center of it