"When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between 2% and –2%, in every case!” — Howard Marks

U.S. stock market I don't predict. I postulate binary technical and fundamental narratives along a scale based on Bayesian probability. Then I look for price levels where thrust might occur and at which I have control of risk and a potential target. And if I am wrong and take a small loss, then I re-postulate and if I find another spot with possible thrust and measured risk I trade it again. Right now I am considering that the NQ is at final resistance of a broadening pattern. If correct, a return to at least the half way point would be suggested. I have no desire to be short right here, right now. I do not have the chart construction on a daily chart to be short. So I watch and wait. In the meanwhile I have massive ownership exposure in the company's pension fund, so I sometimes end up getting pulled in multiple directions in the same market based on multiple time frames and multiple goals. I hate being in this head space when it happens.